The method is based on a connection that was discovered between radon emissions and the noises that followed
Lior Kodner
Direct link to this page: https://www.hayadan.org.il/radoneq.html
A model developed at the Geological Institute in Israel shows a clear connection between the emission of radon gas and earthquakes that occur after it. The researchers report this morning in the journal "Geology" that the model they developed is based on systematic monitoring of radon emissions in areas where many earthquakes occur. According to them, within three days of the beginning of an event of increased radon emissions, there is a high statistical probability of an earthquake.
An earthquake is caused by the breaking of brittle rocks in the earth's crust and its upper mantle. The intensity of the noise depends on the amount of energy released when the rocks under high pressure break.
The Israeli researchers - Dr. Gideon Steinitz, Dr. Benny Begin and Dr. Naama Gazit-Yari - found a correlation (correlation) between the ground noises inside the fissure and the emission of radon gas. The emission of the gas was measured at a monitoring station located near the break, on the coast of the Dead Sea.
The emission of radon occurs as a result of the radioactive decay of uranium, which is found in minute amounts in all rocks on Earth. In the experiments conducted to date, it became clear that a local effort will cause an increased release of radon into the environment. The model developed by the Israeli researchers seeks to be based on exactly this principle.
Because radon is a radioactive gas, it is easy to measure with sensitive radiation measuring equipment. In a study carried out about two decades ago, large emissions of radon were measured in the northwestern region of the Dead Sea. This region, which is part of the Syrian-African rift, is also recognized as one of the main centers for earthquakes in the Middle East. Eight years ago, the researchers set up a radon emission measurement station in the Dead Sea region, and their research is based on the measurements made at this station.
The researchers found that in some cases, the movement of the plates and the accumulation of energy develop into an earthquake, and also lead to the emission of radon a few days before the noise. However, there may also be efforts that result in the release of radon and not develop into an earthquake, and in addition to that, some of these efforts do not manifest themselves in the release of radon at all.
All attempts to find a way to warn of earthquakes have so far not been successful. In March 1997, an article titled "Earthquakes cannot be predicted" was even published in the prestigious journal "Science".
However, according to Dr. Steinitz, the model developed in Israel is a first step in the opposite direction. "In recent years, there has been a great reluctance in the scientific community from people who claim that they have succeeded in finding a method by which earthquakes can be warned," Steinitz emphasizes. According to him, the attempt to point out a connection between earthquakes and radon is not new either. "But unlike the models developed earlier, we focused on a very specific area and systematically studied only the earthquakes that occurred in that area."
One of the main problems of the new model is its inability to predict earthquakes with high probability and indicate the intensity of the noise. The researchers do not know if there is a connection between the intensity of the radon emission and the intensity of the earthquake that followed. As a result, researchers cannot currently warn of earthquakes in advance.
In addition, it is still unclear what the exact period of time that passes between high radon emissions and an earthquake. Even a warning of only half an hour can prevent major disasters - such as instructing residents to leave their homes, as well as prevent ecological disasters by closing nuclear reactors and other preventive actions. To clarify the issue, Steinitz provides a study from the field of medicine: "In this study we found the connection between smoking and cancer, but we cannot say precisely who will get cancer and when."
The team of researchers is currently operating 12 different stations throughout the country, trying to monitor the radon emissions. The researchers intend to soon deploy additional research stations across the country. Seven stations have already been established abroad under the auspices of the European Union. The stations, located in the area of a volcano in the Canary Islands, will try to test the connection between radon and volcanic eruptions outside of Israel.
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