Why would anyone want a computer at home - the foolish history of predictions for the future, from the best experts

Yuval Dror,

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The beginning of a year, and it doesn't matter if it is a year of Jews, Christians, Muslims or Chinese, is a time prone to disaster: everyone predicts the future. Everyone is telling what will happen next year, what discoveries we will make, what victories we will win, what landslides we will suffer. The astrologers look at the stars, the mystics at the crystal ball, the card readers shuffle the tarot. But if the dubious acetgenins can be eliminated with a wave of the hand, then there are always serious people, the experts, standing by their side.

The experts will always be happy to say what is going to happen, and will do so in an authoritative tone. They will jump at every opportunity to tell that the coming year will be better or worse, we will be more or less safe, we will beat everyone or we will lose, we will show everyone or they will show us, because they understand. They checked. they know. Hence their name.

Precisely because we are on the eve of the beginning of a year, and precisely because we are bombarded with predictions from all sides, it is interesting to examine some famous predictions given by experts throughout history. The predictions contracts were all important and prominent people in their fields: politicians, prime ministers, soldiers, scientists, technologists, senior managers of the film companies, doctors, inventors, journalists.

Their predictions have been collected in several books, including "The Experts Speak" by Christopher Cerf and Victor Nevsky, "Treasury Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions" by William Chardan and "De! The Silly History of the Human Race" by Bob Fenster. In these and other books, the authors present the predictions and try to understand why they did not stand the test of reality.

The reasons are many and varied. Some of the experts were too arrogant to realize that there were other possibilities, which in the future would be of an elusive and sometimes vindictive nature, some were just narrow-minded or stupid and others were simply wrong. This also happens. The lesson from all this is that every prediction should be treated with the appropriate suspicion, since sometimes even great knowers are little soothsayers.

politics

"I wouldn't want to be prime minister, my dear" (Margaret Thatcher, 1973)

"Many years will pass - it certainly won't happen in my time - before a woman becomes Prime Minister of Great Britain" (Thatcher repeats and decides, 1974)

Margaret Hilda Roberts was born in 1925. In 1959, a few years after she married Denis Thatcher, she was elected to the British Parliament on behalf of the Conservative Party. She stood at the head of the party in '75 and in the '79 elections she was prime minister. She is the only one of the British Prime Ministers who won the elections three times in a row and her tenure is considered particularly long.

"The French people are not capable of killing a king" (1789: King Louis XVI of France is more optimistic than ever)

Louis XVI was the grandson of Louis XV. He was 16 years old when he was crowned king and some say he was quite stupid, much like his wife, Marie Antoinette. During his time, the French Revolution broke out, during which he tried to flee the country and ask for Austria's help in suppressing it. The escape attempt failed. Four years after he declared that the French people would not kill their king, Louis XVI's head was cut off with a guillotine, which became a particularly favorite instrument of the connoisseur French.

"Bill Clinton will lose to any Republican who doesn't drool on stage" (Wall Street Journal editorial, 1995)

When the "Wall Street Journal" published the aforementioned brilliant political analysis, Clinton was already president, after being elected to his first term in '92. Before the 96 elections, he ran against the Republican candidate Bob Dole and defeated him in one of the biggest victories in the history of American democracy.

The people of the respected American newspaper can take solace in the fact that they looked a year into the future and tried to predict the events. In Israel, a politician, a major general in the reserves who later became the prime minister, tried to predict what would happen in the next 24 hours and failed. On the eve of the '96 elections, after the polls were published, Ehud Barak was interviewed on the television channels. The polls showed a small advantage for Shimon Peres in the face-off against Benjamin Netanyahu and Barak predicted that by the morning hours the gap between the contestants would widen, of course in favor of Peres. When the light broke for the King of Israel, Peres returned to the loser position and Barak began counting the days until he issued another failed prediction, at the dawn of a new day.

"Among the most complicated problems in the world, the Arab-Israeli conflict is one of the simplest and most manageable" (April 27, 1948: Walter Lipman, one of the three founders of the American magazine "The New Republic", looking eastward with ease).

Yeah, sure.

Theater

"The song with the bow is not successful. Take him out" (an internal memo distributed at MGM Studios following the screening of "The Wizard of Oz")

The movie "The Wizard of Oz" is based on Frank Baum's book from 1900, "The Wonderful Wizard of Oz", one of his many books about Oz. In 1939, the musical film based on the book was released, with Judy Garland playing the role of "Dorothy" and not the other child prodigy who was supposed to play her, Shirley Temple.

"The Wizard of Oz" became MGM's second biggest blockbuster of that period, after "Gone with the Wind", and to this day is considered one of the most watched films in cinema history. It won the Oscar for the best musical film of the year and another award for the best song - "Over the Rainbow" of course.

"Forget it. No film about the Civil War has made a penny" (a senior director at MGM expresses his opinion against the production of "Gone with the Wind")

The book "Gone with the Wind" by Margaret Mitchell was published in June 50, 1936 copies of which were sold on the day of its publication and an additional million copies by the end of that year (by '97, the book had sold more than 30 million copies). Even before the book was published, Mitchell received an advance of $50, an unprecedented amount at the time, for the rights to adapt the book into a film.

Filming began on December 10, 1938 and ended on November 11, 1939. Three directors, 17 screenwriters (including author Scott Fitzgerald) and 2,400 extras participated in them. Four million dollars were invested in the production of the film, a huge amount at the time, although it can be safely said that the investment paid off - "Gone with the Wind" has brought in 198,655,278 million dollars to date and is ranked 51st on the list of Hollywood blockbusters of all time. At the Oscars ceremony in February 40, the film was awarded eight Oscars that strengthened its status as one of the masterpieces of American cinema.

The director at the studios wasn't the only one who thought the film would be a flop. Gerry Cooper thought so too. "I'm glad that Clark Gable will be the one to fall flat on his face with this movie and not Gary Cooper", said Cooper about himself (in the third person) when he explained why he refused to accept the lead role in "Gone with the Wind". So was Rhett Butler for Gable's most famous role, including the line "frankly my dear, I don't give a damn". Legend has it that Gable wasn't interested in the role at first either, but was convinced after he was offered a large sum of money that allowed him to divorce his wife Rita Lanham and marry Carole Lombard.

"You better learn secretarial skills or you'll get married" (1944: Emeline Snively, director of the Blue Book modeling agency, rejects Marilyn Monroe)

"You better get back to driving a truck" (1954: Jim Denny, director of the musical show of the "Grand Ole Opry" in Nashville, fires Elvis Presley)

"I don't know how to play. can't sing depilatory. Knows how to dance a little" (1928: the verdict of the director of fabric tests at MGM studios, after Fred Astaire's first fabric test)

Marking candidates who will become movie stars in the future is no easy task but it takes a blind genius to send Marilyn Monroe, the sex symbol of the 20th century, home. The same goes for Elvis, who by the time of his death in '77 had entered 146 songs in the American charts, of which 112 were in the top 40, 72 in the top 20 and 40 in the top ten, achievements that no one has ever replicated.

And what can be said about Fred Astaire? One of the most talented dancers to ever grace the screen. Together with his dancing partner Ginger Rogers, Aster managed to charm millions around the world and not long ago was voted 19th in the list of the greatest movie stars of all time compiled by the weekly magazine "Entertainment Weekly".

Computers

"The ENIAC is equipped with 19 thousand empty tubes and weighs 90 tons. The computers of the future will use only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh perhaps only 1.5 tons" (Popular Mechanics magazine, 1949)

The "Eniac" is still considered the first computer (although there were several before it). It was built for the Ballistic Research Laboratory in Maryland to aid artillery launch systems in World War II, but its construction was not completed until after. The area of ​​the computer was about 100 square meters and its electricity consumption reached 140 kilowatts.

One of the reasons for the high electricity consumption was rooted in the vacuum tube technology, such as the diode, which consumed a strong current and emitted a lot of heat. Fortunately it was only a few years before the transistor was invented, otherwise we would have had to put a 1.5 ton laptop on our lap.

"I don't think there is a market in the whole world for more than five computers" (1943: Thomas J. Watson, Chairman of the Board of Directors of IBM, in a moment of enlightenment)

It is customary to mock Watson's well-known saying, partly because according to the current rate of computer purchases, in a few years there will be about a billion personal computers in the world. Still, if you take into account that only two years after Watson's statement the first computer was introduced, and it was also far from personal, you can understand why it was difficult to see the newborn. And yet it is hard to ignore the irony, considering that for many years IBM was considered the largest computer company in the world.

The irony becomes even more acute when we remember that Shivm lost its primacy and was almost eliminated because the company's managers failed to foresee the future of the software market and chose to mock a young man from Khuchken who came to their office one day when he declared: "I have no problem writing you an operating system, but It won't be yours because I'm only selling you a software license." BMW almost fell on the floor with laughter. "Who makes money from software?" Ask and sign the contract. The moochken, Bill Gates his name, went his way.

"640 kilobytes should be enough for everyone" (Bill Gates, 1981)

Some argue that after this prediction, Gates became more cautious in his attitude to the future. 640 kilobytes of memory? Try running Microsoft's operating system or one of its programs using 640 KB. know what? Try running this with 20x more memory than 640KB!

The funny part of the prediction of the richest man in the world is that the company he founded has become over the years the reason we all buy new computers. Microsoft produces software that consumes system resources through a straw - today's muscular computer will turn into a limp pile of chips in five years because of its software. If the supposed 640 kilobytes were enough for everyone, we could buy a computer today for less than a dollar.

"There's no reason anyone would want a computer in their home" (1977: Digital president Ken Olson undermines his own business model)

A classic example of an expert in his field who does not see beyond his nose. Olson founded Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC), called Digital for short, in 1957, and dealt in computers. In '64, the company introduced a computer that founded the "mini-computer" category, the PDP-8. It was the first computer in the world that even small users purchased it and not just huge organizations and universities.

In '76, Digital introduced the first VAX, another computer that took over the mini-computer category. Although IBM's first personal computer was only introduced in the early 80s, Olson should have seen the great potential in the personal computer market. He didn't see him. At the end of the 80s, Digital was still considered one of the largest companies in the world and employed over 100 workers, but its end is imminent. It was acquired by the Compaq company in January '98, which itself was acquired in 2002 by Hewlett Packard. From digital only memories remain.

exact sciences

"The nuclear bomb will not explode - and I say this as an explosives expert" (Admiral William Leahy, 1945)

Leahy retired from the US Army in 1939, but when World War II began he returned to the service and was appointed US Forces Coordinator. In fact, he was the first person to hold the position of US Chief of Staff, although officially only his successor, Omar Bradley, received the title. He never hid his distaste for nuclear weapons and was certain that the Japanese army was going to surrender anyway. But from here to an official statement, based on his expertise, as to the ability of the bomb to explode, the distance is great.

About 140 thousand people were killed by the atomic bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. Three days later another 75 thousand people died from the dropping of the bomb on Nagasaki. This does not include the tens of thousands of people who died in the following years as a result of radiation damage. You won't explode, will you?

"Vacuum cleaners based on nuclear energy will probably become a reality within ten years" (Lewint Corp CEO Alex Levitt, 1955)

Levitt, founder and CEO of the company that produced vacuum cleaners, was an avowed anti-communist. He believed that one of the ways to deal with the communist threat was to present the people of Europe with necessities for personal use, such as vacuum cleaners, so that they would see the difference between capitalism and communism, and among other things, he was sure that the promise of clean nuclear energy would also reach his business. In doing so, he joined the pale tracker who told about the Israeli government's decision to build a nuclear reactor in Tiberias, after which nuclear reactors might be built for young couples.

"A nuclear reactor is infinitely safer than eating because 300 people choke every year as a result of eating food" (Dixie Lee-Ray, Governor of Washington, 1977)

Lee-Ray was the 17th governor of the state of Washington and the first woman to hold the position. She had a degree in marine biology and was an avowed enthusiast of nuclear energy. Her fondness for tiny atoms led to her appointment as a member of the US Atomic Energy Commission in 1973 by President Nixon. One should therefore not be surprised at the extreme knowledge she demonstrated, nine years before the Chernobyl disaster.

"All the nuclear waste produced by a nuclear reactor in a year can be stored under a desk" (USA President Ronald Reagan teaches space engineering, 1980)

Nuclear weapons enthusiasts seem to be fond of far-fetched comparisons. According to estimates, by 2003, 49 tons of nuclear fuel had been accumulated in the USA that was used to operate nuclear reactors (the nuclear fuel comes in the form of solid ceramic pellets made of enriched uranium that are inserted into long metal tubes that after several years have to be replaced). If all the nuclear waste produced by the USA up to 2003 were taken, it would fill the area of ​​a football field three meters deep. A piece of writing desk needs to hide all this.

Reagan was generally an expert on the environment. In the same year that he underestimated the amount of nuclear waste, he said that 80% of all air pollution comes from hydrocarbon emissions by plants. "So let's not expand the discussion by starting to worry about the emission of pollutants by humans", he stated.

"If excessive cigarette smoking plays a role in the development of lung cancer, then it is only a small role" (Dr. W. C. Hooper, American National Cancer Institute, 1954)

It took many hours to find the first name of the hopper. The American National Cancer Institute has no mention of the man and on the websites he is mentioned only in connection with his unfortunate statement. It's clear why. The American Pulmonary Association estimates that in 2001, 156,058 people died in the US alone as a result of lung cancer; 90% of lung cancer cases are caused by cigarette smoking.

כלכלה

"Stock prices have reached a constant and high level" (Economics Professor Irving Fisher from Yale University, 1929, on the eve of the stock market crash)

Fisher was one of the most famous economists in the USA. In fact, he is the first celebrity of the economic world and several curves and theories are listed under his name. Despite this, or because of this, no one forgets his "brilliant" analysis of the stock market on the evening of October 24th of that year, the day the American stock market collapsed and the terrible decade of the Great Depression began.

"Oil prices will drop from $10 per barrel to $5 per barrel" ("The Economist" in March 1999, nine months before the price of oil jumped to $25 per barrel)

You have to read the summary article of 1999 in the "Economist" to see what twisted journalism is. "Our forecast was surrounded by ambiguous expressions such as 'probably', 'maybe', 'maybe', but our intention was clear", write the editors of the magazine. What happened is, they continue and explain, that we were sure that the Arabs, the Saudi West, would continue to flood the market with oil and the price would go down. In practice, exactly the opposite happened. The Organization of the OPEC countries decided to cut the rate of oil pumping and the price jumped by tens of percent.

Although the magazine admits the mistake, it is full of excuses. "It's not us, everyone thought so," the article reads. Beyond that, "Saudi Arabia is a country where it is difficult to know what is happening there. Journalists do not receive information and decisions are made in secret." Finally, the "Economist" people claim that it may have been their article that convinced the OPEC oil ministers to change their policy. In other words, it is our forecast that caused the price to rise. Are you glad we were wrong? What not?

"Drilling to find oil? Are you going to drill in the ground to find oil? You have gone completely mad" (1859: Workers' response to a special project by Edwin L. Drake)

On August 27, 1859, Drake was drilling a water well in the Pennsylvania area. Instead of water, oil came out of the ground. Oil was already recognized as an interesting resource but not as an available resource. The history books say that Drake's boss, George Bissell, sent him to find the right people and equipment to drill the first oil well. Drake struggled but was finally up to the task. After the first well was drilled, oil rigs popped up all over the US and the oil industry was born. As of December 2003, 2,304 oil wells were operating in the world.

"The concept is interesting and well built, but to get a score higher than 70, the idea must be feasible" (Yale University management professor appreciates the work of Fred Smith, who offered a fast delivery service)

"Federal Express", which was founded by Fred Smith in Memphis, Tennessee in 1971, is the largest express delivery company in the world, after developing the express delivery industry itself. On an average day, it handles about three million packages and documents that are sent to about 215 countries around the world. It employs nearly 196 people worldwide and its stock trades at a price higher than $80, which brings its value to approximately $25 billion. Smith, who serves as the company's president, chairman and CEO, received a salary of $5.45 million last year and in addition exercised options and shares in his possession totaling more than $30 million. If only he would listen to his professor.
The past future knower

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