Researchers: At the beginning of September we will reach herd immunity

In the next two weeks, the State of Israel will reach "herd immunity" - a scenario in which the percentage of infected people in the population will be high enough for a decline in the number of infected people, according to a new study conducted by Prof. Mark Last from the Department of Software and Information Systems Engineering at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev * Separately, a study by the Techniva And Haifa University states that friendly enforcement will help stop the epidemic

In the next two weeks, the State of Israel will reach "herd immunity" - a scenario in which the percentage of infected people in the population will be high enough for a decline in the number of infected people to begin, according to a new study conducted by Prof. Mark Last from the Department of Software and Information Systems Engineering at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev. According to the research findings, in this situation, a sick person will infect on average less than one person (in contrast to the current situation) and thus the number of patients will gradually decrease. The analysis was based on the morbidity data of the Ministry of Health in Israel as well as on proven epidemiological models.

Prof. Lest's findings support the steps taken by the head of the fight against the virus, Prof. Roni Gamzo, who announced a series of possible measures to reduce the spread of the virus in Israel. According to Prof. Lest: "The State of Israel needs to maintain the current situation in order to decrease the number of infected people as soon as possible. There is no need to make a total closure, as we will reach a declining trend in the near future. However, if social gatherings with many participants take place during the Tishri holidays, the citizens will be exposed to a higher number of people than recommended. This could be an opening for a renewed outbreak of the virus. Gamzo's steps are blessed and will benefit us over time."

In his research, Prof. Lest compared the State of Israel to the European countries Greece, Italy and Sweden, which are similar in certain characteristics to Israel. According to him, compared to these countries, the spread of the virus in Israel is more severe at this time and the morbidity here is still high. However, "if you get sick with Corona - then it's better in Israel. Our treatment is more effective than the countries examined and probably from other countries."

Referring to the analysis of the findings of the corona patients in Israel, Prof. Lest pointed out that no country currently has an organized clinical database of corona patients. In Israel, for example, the number of corona patients and the mortality rates from the disease are published, but there is no accessible database with clinical data at the level of the individual patient, for example - medical history, number of days of illness, location of infection, etc. According to Prof. Lest: "According to the Ministry of Health, this is about protecting the patients' privacy, but there is no need for the names of the patients and other identifying details, it is possible to build an anonymous database with clinical details that will allow researchers in Israel and the world to understand more about the disease and identify the most common routes of infection.

In the attached picture you can see a current forecast for the coming months according to which at the end of August-beginning of September we will reach a peak of infections in Israel and from there a gradual decrease in the number of patients will begin

Researchers at the Technion and the University of Haifa - friendly enforcement will increase the public's compliance with the guidelines

Friendly enforcement - this is the approach that will improve the public's responsiveness to instructions related to behavior in the days of Corona. This is what researchers from the Technion and the University of Haifa claim in an opinion article in the journal Nature Human Behavior. The authors of the article are Prof. Ado Arab and Dr. Uri Plonsky from the Davidson Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management at the Technion and their colleague Dr. Yafim Roth from the Faculty of Welfare and Health Sciences at the University of Haifa.

According to the three researchers, rare negative events such as an epidemic provoke two contradictory reactions in the public; One is panic, meaning an overreaction, and the other is complacency, meaning an underreaction ("It won't happen to me"). Indeed, a survey conducted in the United States in the midst of the current epidemic revealed that 31% of residents believe that the public is over-reacting, while 40% believe that it is under-reacting. "So and so are right," says Prof. Arab. "Nowadays we know that people tend to react with excessive anxiety when they hear about imminent threats, but the routine of living in the shadow of the threat may move them to the other side of the barrier - complacency."

As an example of the rapid transition from panic to complacency, Prof. Arab gives the example of removable panels against the theft of sound systems from vehicles. "For a relatively short period of time there was enthusiasm for these devices due to the fear of theft, but eventually most buyers stopped pulling out the panel when they left the car. Surprisingly, many people persist in 'it won't happen to me' behavior even after they experience thefts and accidents.”

According to the researchers, the main cause of the shift to complacency is the tendency of people to behave in a way that has produced the best results in most similar situations in the past. One of the reasons for this is that in many cases, dangerous behaviors - crossing the road without a crosswalk, for example - save time and effort.

And so is the plague. With the arrival of the corona virus in Israel, the majority of the public became alarmed at the danger and tended to comply with the guidelines of social distancing and hygiene, and also at the national level, the government resorted to the drastic measure of a total lockdown. Over time, many citizens began to act as if it was not a dangerous disease. Added to this is the fact that not only the disease is contagious, complacency is also contagious, and thus a person who sees around him many people breaking the rules will also tend to be less and less careful.

The good news is, according to the researchers, that this phenomenon has a solution: friendly enforcement. One of the examples of this is the tracking apps. "Widespread voluntary use of such applications would greatly increase the effectiveness of epidemiological investigations, but currently only a small minority use them. To increase the cooperation of the public in this matter, it is possible, for example, to require people entering closed public places to fill out declaration forms of various kinds, while allowing the users of the applications to enter quickly. In such a situation, many people will tend to prefer the use of apps, and cutting the infection circles will be much faster and more effective.

The article was supported by the Israel Science Foundation (ISF).

for the scientific article

More of the topic in Hayadan:

• A global survey proved: many corona patients experience damage to the senses of taste and smell
• Can herd immunity protect us from Corona?
• Is it possible to hide in a herd?