In recent days, the World Health Organization has given a unique name to the strain of the corona virus, which has undergone many mutations and may bypass some of the protections * Dr.Roey Tsezana explains the reason for the concern
In the last two weeks, people started contacting me and asking me to write about the new strain of the corona virus, which has just these days been given the official name - "Omicron". I preferred not to cause a panic in vain, but now more and more puzzle pieces are joining to create one big and worrying picture. It's time to talk about the Omicron virus, which the whole world fears will ignite the next big wave, and also clarify what we can do against it.
If I can point out one good thing that we will elaborate on later: unlike the previous varieties, the Israeli government is no longer just waiting for them to enter the country in abundance and trigger a new wave, but has closed the borders in advance and declared certain countries as "red". Hopefully this helps, although I'm not hopeful.
Let's start with what we know about the omicron.
The first sample of the omicron was collected in South Africa at the beginning of November[1] [1]. Since then, the virus has spread to almost every province in the country, and was also discovered in Botswana, Hong Kong, Belgium (although it arrived there by flight from Egypt) and... Israel.
Why is this spread disturbing? Because currently, any new strain of the corona virus is supposed to encounter two walls of barriers that limit its spread.
The first wall is the vaccine, which reduces the risk of infection or a severe and long illness during which the patient can infect others.
The other wall, paradoxically, is the dizzying success of the delta variety in the world. The delta spread with enormous speed and infected a huge number of people. Each person who recovered from the delta became more resistant to re-infection by the delta itself and other existing strains. The result is that the delta strain almost wiped out other strains of the corona. He simply deprived the other viruses of their future homes - that is, our bodies.
The fact that the omicron is able to spread despite these two walls is cause for concern. The concern only grows when we see that in less than two weeks, the Omicron strain has already pushed aside the Delta as the "dominant strain" in South Africa, spreading at a greater rate than the Delta strain. Today it is responsible for 75 percent of infections in the country (and will soon reach close to XNUMX percent, according to Dr. Tulio de Oliveira, head of the Center for Innovation and Epidemic Responses in South Africa[2] [2].
And explains why the World Health Organization has already declared the breed as a "worrying breed" (the official wording that makes it clear that we have a problem)[3] [3].
This is the place to expand a bit on the way the WHO (World Health Organization) defines a "Variant of Concern" or in English - Variant of Concern.
According to the WHO, "strains of concern" are those that are linked to one or more of the following changes in their properties, based on global information [3] -
- An increase in the transmission capacity of the virus, or a negative change in the epidemiology of Covid-19.
- An increase in the lethality of the virus or a change in the clinical presentation of the disease.
- Reducing the effectiveness of social and public health procedures designed to reduce transmission, or reducing the effectiveness of vaccines, drugs or screening measures.
Since there is no information yet about the first two sections, the Omicron fits well into the third category, at least for now.
Many more mutations in the spike protein
The original reason that the discovery of the omicron caused scientists to panic, is that this virus is rich in mutations. It boasts fifty mutations, of which approximately thirty are concentrated in the regions that code for the creation of the "spike protein". By comparison, the delta strain has fewer than twenty mutations[4] [4].
This large number of mutations has three meanings.
First, the mutations may change the general structure of the virus, thus making it difficult for antibodies that healers have developed against other strains to fight the new omikron. In simpler terms: convalescents may be more vulnerable to leumicrons.
Second, the large number of mutations in the hook protein of the virus may significantly reduce the ability of vaccines to deal with it. The reason is that most vaccines today expose the immune system to the hook protein, in order for it to produce antibodies against it. If the mutations change the structure of the hook protein - then the antibodies will have more difficulty recognizing it. Simply put: vaccines may be less protective against the omicron.
What it means? Maybe everything, maybe nothing. So far we have had relative luck with the other strains of the corona virus. Yes, they cause severe respiratory disease and even certain systemic symptoms. Yes, there is the long-covid phenomenon that lasts for weeks and even months and maybe longer. But they are not significantly harmful, for example, to the reproductive system - although theoretically they should also be able to connect to cells in the testicle. A major change in the binding site of the hook protein may result in the omicron being able to successfully connect to other cells in our body as well.
I want to emphasize: this is only speculation, which is not supported by existing studies. But of course there are still almost no studies on the omicron at all. I raise this possibility only to clarify how much the disease we have become accustomed to is not self-evident, and that there are other risks that we simply cannot know in advance. It is very possible that the change in the binding site of the omicron does not lead to a qualitative change in the disease. But there is always the small chance that it does, and it is this particular danger that has kept me awake for the past two years.
So far you have mostly heard my opinion. This is based on what we know, but it is still a layman's opinion (no, not an idiot. Look it up in a dictionary) compared to that of expert epidemiologists.
So what do the experts say?
I went to the trouble of looking for quotes from the most famous scientists who were interviewed on the subject for the press. It is important to remember that due to the nature of journalism, the experts being interviewed are often chosen based on the level of headlines they can generate. The result is that the cited scientists may present a more extreme picture than the scientific consensus. But it seems that those quoted in the articles are rather cautious in their words, for the most part.
Let's start with Dr. Fauci, who is well known to all of us from the United States. Fauci actually shows optimism. Or at least, a very cautious concern.
"Right now, we're talking about something that might be kind of a red flag that it might be a problem, but we don't know. Once we test it, we will know for sure whether or not it evades the antibodies we produce, for example, against the virus through a vaccine or... after being infected."[6] [6]
Of course he bothered and added that - "Although the numbers are still small, the doubling time is quite high, and the growth gradient is really quite high." [7] [7]
Other experts are less optimistic. Dr. Vector Ashish Ha, dean of the School of Public Medicine at Brown University, emphasizes the difference between the spread of Omicron and the other strains.
"We've seen a lot of varieties appear in the last five, six months, and most of them haven't changed much. It looks different. It behaves differently, and seems to be even more contagious than the delta variety. … The speed at which it spread is really unlike anything we've seen before." [6]
The head of the British Consortium for the Genetics of Covid-19 said that - "There is a lot that is not known. It is very important to emphasize how much we currently do not know about the new strain. … We have no conclusive evidence at the moment that it is more contagious. There is enough evidence to make us worry about the possibility of greater contagion."[8] [8]
Doctor Ulrich Elling, from the Institute for Molecular Biotechnology in Vienna - a laboratory that specializes in sequencing corona viruses and identifying new strains - is much more pessimistic. much, much more. According to the initial estimates he cited, the new strain "may be five times more infectious than the delta." [9] [9]
In any case, no one is seriously talking about the fact that vaccines will completely stop helping. As Dr. Ha said, "I think this is highly unlikely. The question is, will the effectiveness of the vaccines be slightly damaged, or severely?" [6]
Lawrence Young, professor of virology and molecular oncology at Warwick Medical School in the UK, expressed concern about the Omicron strain. "This is the most mutated version of the virus we've seen so far. The strain carries certain changes that have previously been seen in other strains, but have never appeared all together in one virus. It also has new mutations.”[10] [10]
Doctor Yehezkel Emanuel, chairman of the Department of Medical Ethics at the University of Pennsylvania, also referred to the ability of the virus to spread in terms that are not ambiguous.
"The fact that he comes here is inevitable. The environment he ends up in may not be inevitable. We can change the environment." [7]
Which raises the question: how can we really change the environment?
Israel has already started preparing for the new breed, just to be safe. The government has defined most African countries as red[11] [11]. This means imposing a ban on flights from those countries, and returning the quarantine hotels to operation[12] [12]. The problem is that four confirmed cases of the new strain have already been discovered in Israel[13] [13]. At least one of them "disappeared" - that is, escaped from isolation - she was located in a hotel in Eilat. How many people did you infect along the way, if any? Unknown. It can be assumed with some certainty that the new breed is already starting to spread in Israel. Will the vaccines slow its spread? Probably so. Will they stop her completely? One can only hope.
In any case, it sounds like the government is aware of the potentially serious significance of the omicron. Bennett formulated the issue in a way that does not imply two faces - "The variant that came from South Africa is extremely worrying. ... We are preparing for every scenario, including the worst scenario. … We are at the threshold of an emergency.”
Bennett added, questioning whether all PCR tests can effectively detect the micron. When he answered in the negative, he ordered the immediate purchase of ten million tests to detect the variant.
"As far as I'm concerned, take out an Air Force plane. Buy before the world jumps on it.”[14] [14]
I must mention here a point of pride for the futurists. As we have been saying for a long time, over and over again, the role of the futurist is not to predict the future, but to develop reliable scenarios about the possible futures, and to help the decision-makers prepare for the opportunities and threats in these futures. One of the ways to do this, which I personally teach in several places, is through a role play where the participants take on the roles of real characters in the scenario and have to understand how they should act.
This is why I was happy to hear that a few weeks ago a role-playing game based on the "omega scenario" was held in Israel. The scenario describes the penetration of a new deadly strain of the virus into Israel, and the attempt to respond to it quickly. The CEOs of the government ministries, representatives of the National Security Headquarters, representatives of the IDF and more were involved in the game.[15]. Everyone prepared for the new situation, and everyone learned and understood how they should think about the penetration and spread of the virus, and how the various government ministries and other bodies should conduct themselves together and separately.
The results are clear in the field. [15] According to Bennett - "A few weeks ago, when we did the national exercise "Omega" for a scenario of a new lethal variant, it seemed a bit sketchy. Needless to say, this is one of the most significant moves that prepared us exactly for the situation we are now, perhaps, in. Already yesterday evening we returned to the insights from the exercise and began to implement quickly."[16] [16]
So yes, I know, the Gospels of Job - but at least the futurists are satisfied.
The vaccines could theoretically completely change the game against the omicrons, as they did against the previous strains. But will they be able to act effectively against the Omicron? That's the big question.
Meanwhile, all vaccine manufacturers are preparing for the new situation. Moderna announced that it is testing its vaccine against the new strain, and the answers should come in the coming weeks. The social scientists are looking into the possibility of giving people a higher-dose booster, or combining two possible different types of boosters - each of which was developed against different mutations - to see if they protect better against the omicron.
Pfizer and Biotech are also testing the vaccine and its effects on the virus, as are AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson.
Basically, there are no big surprises here. They are all trying to understand what the virus means about their vaccinations, and they all admit that they are still not sure[17]. [17]
At the moment, as I have already written, it seems that the Israeli government knows exactly what to do. It is also always possible that this is a false alarm - and that we will all be back to normal tomorrow morning. But it seems that the chances of that are small with each passing day, so it's worth preparing for the less-than-sympathetic scenarios.
Go get vaccinated
The last line of responsibility is at the door of each and every one of us, and it can be summed up in two words: go get vaccinated.
Yes, I know there is a decent chance that the omicron is able to bypass some of the immune system's defenses. But even if it is able to do so, it is widely believed that the vaccine provides at least partial protection against it. We have already seen that the vaccine dramatically reduced the damage of the disease in adults and children, and that it reduced the ability to be infected with the virus. It is likely that he will do the same for this variety, to one extent or another.
Don't wait for studies about the omicron. You have a safe vaccine in hand, against a virus whose full effects are still not fully known. If you have not yet been vaccinated with a booster - now is the time.
And most importantly, for the parents: go vaccinate the children. go now Do not wait for the new breed to spread in Israel. Assume it has already started to spread. Do not make an appointment for another month. Children's immune systems take several weeks to develop resistance, so you want to vaccinate them as early as possible.
Go get vaccinated. Go get vaccinated.
Let's stop the fifth wave together, which, judging by what is happening in South Africa right now, has the potential to be the worst of all.
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[1] https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/535178/5-important-things-happening-in-south-africa-today-1160/
[2] https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194
[3] https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern
[4] Information from Wikipedia, and I couldn't verify it with a quick search
[5] https://fortune.com/2021/11/26/new-covid-variant-south-africa-nu-mutations-delta-dominant-strain/
[6] https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/26/health/omicron-variant-what-we-know/index.html
[7] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/11/26/world/covid-vaccine-boosters-variant
[8] https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-coronavirus-variant-raises-questions-among-scientists-11637954249
[9] https://www.dw.com/en/covid-what-we-know-about-the-omicron-variant/a-59948143
[10] https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/26/africa/new-covid-variant-discovered-south-africa-b11529-intl/index.html
[11] https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/h100m8h000f
[12] https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/hkqsyu6ut
[13] https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/syyt2za00y
[14] https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/h100m8h000f
[15] https://www.maariv.co.il/news/politics/Article-876840
[16] https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/syyt2za00y
[17] https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/26/health/omicron-variant-what-we-know/index.html
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