Dr. Assaf Rosenthal
Direct link to this page: https://www.hayadan.org.il/rosental180805.html
What will happen in our immediate environment - in the Mediterranean basin if the average temperature rises by 2 degrees (compared to the pre-industrial temperature)? And how will this warming affect the tourist sites on the seashores and the agricultural hinterland? The researchers of the World Conservation Organization examined the issue and below are their conclusions:
Heat waves
The climate will of course be warmer, but accordingly the changes in the weather will be extreme and severe (a situation that is already felt today), an increase of two degrees "globally" will cause the areas far from the coast to warm up by about five degrees! Turkey, northern Italy, the Maghreb countries, will suffer from extreme heat waves. The Greek islands in the northern Aegean Sea enjoy cool breezes in the summer, these breezes will be replaced by heat waves!
less rain
The amount of precipitation in the southern Mediterranean will decrease by about 20%. While in the north of the sea, the amount of precipitation will increase by about 30% in "times of drought" - long periods without rain will last many more months - into the winter. In Italy, western Greece, southern France and the southwestern Iberian island, the number of dry days is expected to increase, this despite the fact that the general rainfall will increase since the rain fell in short periods and in large quantities
Fires
In all the countries of the southern basin of the sea there will be a constant danger of forest fires in all seasons of the year, in other areas the period of fires will be about two months long. The danger of fires will also increase in the Balkans, northern Italy, and Spain.
agriculture
The hot and dry climate will cause a decrease in agricultural yields, especially in summer leafy crops. when the decrease will be greater in the southern basin. Lentil, bean, soy crops will fall by about 40%. Even if heat-resistant crops are developed, these will require about 40% more water, water whose availability is questionable.
Tourism
Frequent heat waves in combination with fires will cause concerns among tourists who will leave areas that today are recreation and tourism sites in the summer. It is possible that the spring and autumn will become more pleasant and attractive seasons, but in these seasons there is no family tourism which has the large and profitable volume.
biologic diversity
A loss of about 50% of plant species in the North Sea is expected, and up to 80% in Spain and France, mainly in mountainous areas. The increase in fires will cause the spread of invasive weeds whose presence will fuel the fires.
water
A dry climate is accompanied by a lack of precipitation and a decrease in surface flow. There will be an increase in the demand for water in the agricultural sectors, these will increase the pressure that already exists in large areas. There will be an increasing demand for quantities of water that are not available. With each rise of one degree, the demand for water increases by about 10%. For some reason there is no reference in the publication to our little corner, perhaps because of the dimensions or perhaps for other reasons. In any case, we can learn about our situation by comparing it to neighbors and countries with similar conditions, and when you weigh the data, the future is not rosy.
A compilation of Dr. Assaf Rosenthal's articles on the Hidan site
https://www.hayadan.org.il/BuildaGate4/general2/data_card.php?Cat=~~~241353925~~~218&SiteName=hayadan
