This is according to a study by a team of researchers from the Hebrew University and Hadassah who recommend vigorous action
A new report published by six researchers from the Hebrew University and Hadassah states that the infection rate has risen back above 1, and that in the next two weeks approximately 600 patients are to be expected in a serious condition from the virus. Their fear is about insufficient hospitals. The data of the report is now being presented at the Corona Cabinet meeting
The researchers of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Hadassah, who monitor the morbidity situation in Israel on a daily basis, published a new report today (Thursday), which shows that Israel was not able to continue the containment of the second wave that occurred at the end of July, and turn it into a real and continuous decrease in infection and morbidity in hospitals. The data of the report were presented yesterday at the Corona Cabinet meeting.
Furthermore, the researchers point out that moderation is not currently in sight, but quite the opposite. Since the beginning of June, not once has there been a significant decrease or moderation in the number of new patients added daily, who are in moderate and severe conditions. The death curve is sharper and quantitatively significantly higher than the first wave.
In the attached document, the researchers clarify that the current wave may become unstable. "The number of new patients in moderate and severe conditions is increasing significantly. This increase together with the increase in infections indicates a departure from stability - a rapid increase is expected in the near future in patients in critical condition in the hospitals. The stability in recent weeks in the number of hospitalized patients in serious condition resulted from a delicate balance between the number of new patients in serious condition and the number of dead and recovered. Now, the rate of death and recovery is not expected to catch up with the rate of morbidity." They point out. "In a nominal scenario there will be 600 patients in critical condition in two weeks. The forecast ahead - a significant risk of rapid deterioration".
Will corona wards be able to withstand the load of patients? According to the researchers, the effective multiplication factor is currently above 1, and is on the rise. Only about a month ago, the team published a relatively optimistic forecast according to which the multiplication factor dropped below 1, probably because of the measures taken at the time to contain the epidemic, primarily the ban on gatherings. But now the new multiplication factor raises the fear of reaching a situation of insufficiency in the hospitals: "In the more severe scenario, it will not be possible to prevent a breach of the previously defined flow threshold. Prepare for the rapid realization of the aggravated scenario. The current risk requires vigorous action".
The document is signed by Prof. Yanon Ashkenazi, Prof. Doron Gazit, Dr. Michael Assaf and Prof. Nadav Katz from the Rakah Institute of Physics together with Prof. Ronit Kalderon-Margalit and Prof. Ran Nirpaz from the School of Public Health and Community Medicine at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Hadassah Hospital.
5 תגובות
Without effective enforcement, the measures are ineffective. The Israel Police is in charge of enforcement, and there is no need to add a word.
All the discussions are not really important, there is no way to go back to a more significant prevention of regulations and instructions:
Wearing a mask: Most people do not (anymore) wear a mask as required.
The Mahadrin use a transparent cover, which is like a cup of wine for the dead.
Social distancing: everyone is in favor, just not for "my" purposes, and everything is protected by the self-interested politicians, who apparently work mainly to increase the morbidity rate in "their" sector. So, for example, the ultra-orthodox are in favor of opening yeshiva, and importing patients from abroad. The leftists are in favor of the demonstrations in Balfour, and everyone who has an event, of any type and sector, is in favor of waiving the rules just for the sake of spreading the disease in their closest circles.
So that's not how you stop an epidemic.
It is clear to (almost) everyone that by observing three rules: 1 - social distancing, 2 - hygiene,
3- Wearing a mask, the outbreak can be prevented
the plague,
Therefore: if all the best for studies and surveys
"The sharp increase in the number of people infected with Corona indicates" a lack of response to the instructions
and failure to observe the three rules,
What comes from: T.M.T.O.M.! ! !
Indeed, on Sunday I will try to interview the researcher from Ben Gurion to understand the reason for the differences between them and the Hebrew University
On August 31, you published a forecast for herd immunity in mid-September...