The personal computer changes shape

Is it a desktop, laptop, or data device? What is more important is, does it improve your productivity.

Paul McDougall, InformationWeek

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Aside from an increase in horsepower, the personal computer has changed very little over the past few years. But even though the computer and component manufacturers are struggling in a flat market and are looking for the noise and ringing that will boost sales, the manufacturers are starting to launch computers with new technologies, which are designed to improve productivity in the office and outside.

As a result, large desktop computers may soon disappear from the computing landscape and "information devices" will take their place and blur the line between desktop computers and portable computers. Dell, Hewlett-Packard and IBM are working on prototypes designed to reshape and expand into desktop computers in the office, and take on a more portable form factor for use outside. Dell, for example, is set to launch a laptop that includes a folding keyboard and an LCD screen that can be raised to eye level when used as a desktop computer.

And in addition there is the Tablet PC - the computing device that looks like a book, which is able to receive a little input or even from the user's voice, and which works in the Windows XP environment, Professional version, with improvements specific to its compact form. Microsoft provided the specification, and next month, several hardware manufacturers, including Acer, HP and Toshiba, will start selling the computers.

IT managers hope that the tablet will promote new levels of collaboration in their organizations. Tony Scott, director of technology for information services and information systems at General Motors Corp., says the automaker has already made significant progress toward real-time collaboration, but is counting on the tablet to help it take its next steps. By making the planning and design process computerized, the company has reduced the duration of vehicle development from 48 months to 18 months over the past four years. In order to shave more time off the process, Scott says, GM needs tools that allow employees to interact and work collaboratively, in electronic tools, on documents, even when they're on the production floor or attending a board meeting. "When people can look at things together, mark them, and do it in an orderly manner, it will have a real benefit in terms of saving time," he says. With the tablet, "we saw part of Microsoft's vision unfold as voice recognition and file sharing. They are on the right track."

The tablet is among the many mobile computing devices that will support 802.11b wireless networks (Wi-Fi). One company already testing this capability in a tablet prototype is Ameranth Wireless Inc, which makes software for restaurants and hospitals. The company may use the tablet as part of its Host Alert product for restaurants, which will allow waiters, kitchen staff, and hosts to place orders wirelessly to speed up service. "We are approaching the point where wireless technology will become a mature technology that provides measurable business value," says Randy Stratford, CEO of Ameranth.

In the foreseeable future, we expect very little growth in the desktop computing market, and Intel's sights are on the mobile and wireless computing markets. The chipmaker recently introduced Banias, a laptop processor slated for launch in the first quarter of next year. Banias-based laptops include built-in support for 802.11b wireless technology and should allow for longer battery life. Banias chips run at clock speeds of 1.4 GHz, 1.5 GHz and 1.6 GHz and laptop makers hope the chip will boost sales. "Banias is going to be huge for us," predicts Anthony Bonadero, director of product marketing at Dell.

Intel is also developing technology that will allow a single chip to process digital and analog signals, which will improve the possibility of creating a single processor that will provide voice, data and networking capabilities for mobile devices. Intel executives say the chip's integrated signal wiring could make mobile devices significantly less expensive, since fewer processors would be needed. The technology will also "bring the benefits of Moore's Law to the silicon of the communications industry," says Sean Maloney, vice president and general manager of Intel's communications group. Moore's Law, named after the co-founder of Intel, Gordon Moore, assumes that the processing power of computing doubles every 18 months. The company says it expects to launch the chip next year.

Over the next few years, the innards of personal computers will change significantly as Intel introduces new architectures. The chipmaker leads a consortium of manufacturers that build PC components around a high-speed connection technology known as 3GIO or PCI Express. The technology will replace PCI as the standard way to connect peripherals to a computing device. Why change? Processor speeds of over 10 GHz, faster memories, and working in a 10-Gigabit Ethernet network, all of these will arrive in the coming years, and will require significantly faster internal bandwidth. Intel's rival, Advanced Micro Devices Inc, is promoting its high-speed I/O around a technology called HyperTransport. PCI Express and HyperTransport are incompatible chip-to-chip, which means trouble and headaches for consumers. "It may be several years before the mess is sorted out, and that means consumers can expect an ugly standards war," says Linley Guinup, an analyst at the Linley Group.

In the field of desktop computing, one of the biggest changes in the coming year will happen when Intel will launch its Hyper-Threading technology, which is currently used in servers, for desktop computer chips. Hyper-Threading "confuses" applications and makes them "believe" that there are two processors in a computer where there is actually one processor, thereby effectively doubling the performance in certain cases. In order to realize such advantages, the applications need to be written specifically to use Hyper-Threading.

Another priority: building security directly into chips. Intel is developing a built-in security chip known as LaGrande, which provides a secure area for data, inaccessible to remote applications, so even if the data is not encrypted, it is still unreachable. In addition to protecting sensitive data, LaGrande is able to work together with Microsoft's upcoming digital rights management software, known as Palladium. "LaGrande will be the key technology in hardware, enabling actuation, memory and storage," says Dan Niles, an analyst at Lehman Bros.

Microsoft and Intel will dominate the business computing market for the foreseeable future, but there are looming alternatives. Lindows.com Inc, a software maker that markets a desktop version of the open-source Linux operating system, recently unveiled version 2.0. The upgrade includes improved network features for connecting with Windows-based computers, support for more than 800 printer models, and a Windows-style graphical user interface. The new version also has improved support for notebook computers, including features for managing the carrier and tools for managing the configuration of wireless network cards.
The time may now be ripe for a Linux alternative in the field of desktop computing, as businesses continue to save money when it comes to spending on new computers. Merrill Lynch recently cut its growth forecast for the personal computer market for 2003 from 15% to 10% "in light of the continued weakness in worldwide spending on information technology," says Steve Fortuna, an analyst at the company.

Computer manufacturers are lowering prices more and more in an attempt to gain market share, but avoiding paying for licenses to Microsoft may seem like a more attractive path. Dell, the leader in the field of cheap computers, did not go that far, but it is not expected that CEO Michael Dell will give up the price war he started at the beginning of the year. Says Dell, "Our strategy to profitably gain market share continues to work well."

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