This is according to a study by Tel Aviv University that relied on data from about 300 corona tests performed on campus
A new study by Tel Aviv University reveals that the British variant is 45% more infectious than the original virus. The researchers relied on data obtained from approximately 300,000 corona tests performed in the laboratory for the analysis of PCR tests, which was established on campus in collaboration with the Electra Group.
The new study was conducted by Prof. Ariel Monitz and Prof. Motti Gerlitz from the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at the Sackler Faculty of Medicine together with Dr. Dan Yamin and PhD student Matan Yehezkel from the Laboratory for the Study of the Spread of Epidemics at the Department of Industrial Engineering at Tel Aviv University. The results of the study were published in the important journal Cell Report Medicine.
The Electra-TAU laboratory was opened in March 2020, immediately after the outbreak of the first wave of the epidemic in Israel, and so far, it has conducted hundreds of thousands of tests collected from all over the country. The tests arrived at Tel Aviv University from the "Hibedek Ve Sa" (drive-in) complexes that were opened to the general population, as well as from dedicated programs such as Operation "Protecting Fathers and Mothers" for routine corona tests among at-risk populations, such as nursing homes.
Prof. Ariel Munitz explains: "We use a kit that tests three viral genes. In the British variant, also known as B.1.1.7, one of these three genes, the S gene, was deleted as a result of the mutation. In this way, we could follow the spread of the variant in the population even without conducting genetic sequencing."
According to him, the data obtained in the laboratory show that the spread of the British variant was extremely rapid: on December 24, 2020, only 5% of the confirmed cases of corona infection were of the British variant. Within six weeks, in January 2021, this variant was responsible for 90% of the corona infections in Israel. Today the data indicates 99.5%.
"In order to explain the dramatic increase, we made a comparison between the R-coefficient of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the R-coefficient of the British variant. In other words, we asked ourselves: how many people on average does each person who gets infected with the different variants infect? And we found that the British variant is 45% more contagious - almost 1.5 times".
In the second step, the researchers segmented the infection by age groups. The results showed that the point of change in morbidity in the population over 60 compared to the other age groups occurred two weeks after receiving the first vaccine among 50% of the 60 and over population in Israel.
"Until January, we saw a linear dependence of almost 100% between the different age groups in new morbidity per thousand people," says Dr. Dan Yamin. "Two weeks after 50% of those aged 60 and over received the first dose of the vaccine, the trend was sharply and distinctly broken. During January, there was a dramatic decrease in the number of verified persons aged 60 and over, alongside a continued increase in the number of verified persons of the rest of the population. In simple words, since over 90% of those who died from the corona virus are over 60 years old, it can be said that the vaccine saved the death of hundreds of people - even in the short term."
Moreover, the new study proves that active monitoring in at-risk populations works. "There is a threshold value by which it is decided whether a test is positive or negative," says Prof. Monitz. "The lower this value, the higher the viral load. When we compared the threshold values of the various genes among the populations aged 60 and over from the nursing homes against the values obtained from those aged 60 and over in the general population, we saw that the threshold values in the tests sampled from the nursing homes were significantly higher. This means that the viral load was lower in nursing homes compared to the rest of the population.
Since routine tests are performed in nursing homes, compared to tests in the general population that are usually conducted when someone is not feeling well or comes into contact with a confirmed patient, we conclude that constant monitoring of a population at risk works. It is important to emphasize: the relatively low viral load in the nursing homes was observed even though the British variant began to spread in that period in all populations. Therefore, we show that monitoring nursing homes, together with a vaccination campaign that focuses on vulnerable populations first, saves morbidity and mortality."
Dr. Yamin concludes: "Due to the density, the large households and the age distribution of the population in Israel, the conditions for Corona to spread are more favorable here than in most Western countries. Our message to the world is that if the trend was identified in our difficult opening conditions, in the rest of the Western countries we can certainly expect the breaking of the curve and a dramatic decrease in severe morbidity and mortality already after vaccinating 50% of the adult population, along with carrying out dedicated tests in the risk centers - and this despite the fact that the British variant is so contagious."
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