Just before establishing military bases on the moon * President Bush's call for international cooperation in space exploration was first and foremost an appeal to China, which recently successfully launched a man into space, to prefer cooperation over competition. The Americans fear mainly the military aspects of the Chinese space program. also
Walla News!, William Broad and Jim Yardley New York Times
China plans to reach the moon by 2010
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When President Bush sketched out his ambitious vision for a new era in space exploration 12 days ago, one country in particular was at the forefront of his mind when he extended an inviting hand for international cooperation: China.
Last October, China managed to become the third country in the world to send an astronaut into space. This move was definitely a signal that she intends to break into the first ranks of space explorers. Indeed, the Chinese intend to send more astronauts into space next year, launch a research satellite to the moon within three years and land an unmanned space vehicle on the moon by 2010 - about five years before the target date set by President Bush for sending the next astronauts to the moon.
The US and China are currently at a crucial crossroads, between cooperation and competition, in what may turn into a race into a new, expensive and dangerous space, in which additional countries may be involved.
According to a senior official in Washington, Bush definitely aimed his words at the Chinese. "The reference to international cooperation was not a publicity stunt," said the same executive, "it was an invitation. The president drew an important diagnosis; This is not about the Cold War."
But it is definitely a possibility. The Chinese are not alone in the new effort to appropriate the power and prestige of space, which is increasingly becoming a necessary goal, like the acquisition of nuclear capability, for countries that aspire to become world powers. Countries like Brazil and India are also taking more significant steps than ever before to ensure that they are not left behind in the new space race.
Joan Johnson-Fries, an expert on the Chinese space program at the Rhode Island Naval War College, said the Bush administration had no choice but to respond to China's success in the US space initiative. "The success allowed China to approach other countries with cooperation initiatives and they respond positively; That's why we couldn't do anything," she said.
According to her, the US now has a window of opportunity, which will not last long, to sign an agreement. "Cooperation is the best position for the United States and for the future," she said, "a comprehensive vision will give the United States the opportunity to lead a mission that can serve as an inspiration to the entire world."
The biggest concern is about the militarization of space. This is through weapons that will be placed in space and satellites that will expand the sphere of influence of states or terrorists, and will allow for more extensive and comprehensive intelligence gathering than before.
Such scenarios are a central pillar of the mistrust between the US and China. American commentators point out that China's manned space program is part of the activities of the People's Liberation Army, and suspect that the Chinese's main ambitions in space are military.
Some commentators claim that China's manned spacecraft is designed specifically for potential military needs. The Chinese, on the other hand, have seen the technological skills shown by the US in Afghanistan and Iraq and are now emphasizing the importance of "information warfare" and the need for a presence in space.
In October, the daily newspaper of the People's Liberation Army announced that outer space would become a "battle arena" because satellite technologies are essential for a fast and modern army. "It's clear that the Chinese are worried about American control of space, and that the US treats China as a potential adversary," said Adam Segal, a China expert at the American Council on Foreign Relations. "This is probably a good time to try and talk about these things since no significant progress has yet been made."
President Bush never once mentioned China during his speech, but an administration source said that by not limiting his appeal to Europe and Russia, he was implicitly addressing Beijing. When China's foreign minister was asked to comment on the possibility of his country playing a possible role in Bush's Moon-Mars initiative, he said that China is committed to cooperation with other countries that have space programs, including the United States.
However, the US State Department also hinted at past frustrations, noting that China's space program has already sought to establish - unsuccessfully - closer relations with NASA. Since 2002, the ministry noted, the two sides have discussed organizing a meeting between the two heads of the space programs. "We hope that the existence of such a meeting will open up the possibility of developing Chinese-American cooperation in space," said a written statement published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
US and Chinese officials publicly claim that relations between the two countries are getting tighter. Among other things, the Chinese allowed General Richard Myers, the chairman of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff, to visit China's most secret space command center, in Beijing. This visit took place on the day Bush gave his space speech.
This visit was part of an extensive campaign designed to establish closer military relations. General Myers also met with his Chinese counterpart, General Liang Guangli, and later met with Jiang Zemin, the former president of China, who remains in charge of China's military.
During a press briefing, a gesture designed to ease tensions, General Myers made sure to praise the successful Chinese launch last October. "There is no doubt that this is a big step for the Chinese space program, and we congratulate them," he said.
China has taken other important steps. Recently, it collaborated with the European Union in the development of a global satellite navigation system. And in another project last month, China and the European Space Agency launched a research satellite, designed to examine the Earth's magnetic fields. China also joined Brazil in launching satellites.
In total, China intends to launch 10 satellites this year and a total of 30 by 2005; There are currently 16 Chinese satellites orbiting the Earth, equipped with scientific, commercial and military applications.
More daring are China's plans to build on the successful launch of the Shenzhou 5 spacecraft into space last year, and eventually land on the moon. Officials say that next year, Shenzhen 6 is scheduled to carry two astronauts on a five- to seven-day mission in space.
Efforts to reach the moon will begin this year. Some US experts talk ominously about a "red moon" - the possibility that one day China will send military astronauts into space in order to establish a communist base on the moon. Luan Anzhi, director of the China Space Administration, last month described the moon as "the focal point where the space powers of the future compete for strategic resources."
But Luan and other Chinese officials maintain that China's lunar ambitions are entirely peaceful. According to Luan, one of China's main motivations for reaching the moon is its possible economic exploitation. He told the People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party, that China is also interested in developing lunar energy resources. In his words, he referred, for example, to "helium-3", a rare form of the element that scientists say can provide power for advanced reactors on Earth.
In an interview last week, Ouyang Ziyuan, the chief scientist of China's lunar program, said the program is part of China's broader efforts to become a leader in space exploration. "China has made many achievements in satellite applications and launching manned spacecraft, but we have not achieved much in space exploration," he said. "We need a breakthrough in this field to bridge the gap. As an initial step, the lunar program is most necessary."
US government documents, similar to the Air Force's space action plan and the Space Command's strategic master plan, deal a lot with maintaining "space supremacy" in the Earth's environment and the use of weapons in space. But "there is nothing in the Air Force's plans for the moon," said Theresa Hitchens, vice president of the Center for Defense Information, a private research organization based in Washington.
However, some commentators believe that the moon is part of a larger US military program. They attributed to Bush's speech one-sided emphases and claimed that it reminded them of the days of the Cold War.
Officials in the Bush administration claim that they are not concerned that China's achievements in space will undermine the prestige and leadership of the United States. According to them, opening the door to Beijing regarding the Moon-Mars initiative is going to strengthen American influence.
As part of the joy that prevailed after the successful Shenzhou-5 launch, Chinese officials toyed with the idea of launching their own Mars exploration program by 2020. But this month, officials said it was too early to talk about any timetable and that China was not yet in a position to initiate such a program.
The knowledge of man and space
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