Despite the debate between the scientists, and despite the opposition of the USA, the Kyoto Protocol to prevent global warming is launched
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The effect of global warming - map
Complicated, powerful and still not in force - this is how they defined the status of the Kyoto Protocol, the most important international agreement to prevent global warming, until recently. The protocol, which was launched in 1997, established for the first time binding targets for reducing the emission of gases, which cause global warming and which, in the opinion of many scientists, pose a serious threat to the future of humanity.
So far not enough countries have ratified the protocol, but at the end of October Russia finally ratified it. This made the 55th country to do so (including Israel), thus giving it binding effect. Now the implementation phase begins, which is accompanied by economic and political difficulties, but at the same time, the voices of the scientists challenging the very assumption that the world is expected to warm have not been heard.
According to the conclusions of a team of UN scientists, published three years ago, there is enough evidence that the emission of gases due to human activity is causing global warming. The scientists estimated that without a change in the trend, the average temperature in the next hundred years will rise by up to 4.5 degrees. The main responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases are the energy industry and fuel production, vehicles and industrial plants. Other factors are waste sites, from which methane gas is emitted, and forest burning, which emits the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.
The main component of the protocol states that the developed countries of the world must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by at least 5% compared to the amount they emitted in 1990. This goal is preliminary, and more stringent goals should be set in the future. The protocol allows the various countries that have signed it to share the reduction in emissions among themselves. Thus, for example, the countries of the European Union, the most advanced in addressing the problem, agreed to reduce emissions by 8% by 2012. However, some of them, such as Greece and Portugal, emitted small amounts of gases in 1990, so it was determined that they could increase by more than 20 % the emission rate. In contrast, other countries have taken on a reduction target of more than 10%. The goal set for Russia, Ukraine and New Zealand is to stabilize the amount of emissions.
Emission reduction targets are largely arbitrary. It is very difficult to accurately estimate the amount of greenhouse gases that each country emitted 15 years ago. It is even more difficult to estimate the rate of reduction that will moderate the warming phenomenon. However, the main importance of the Kyoto Protocol is the change in trend, even though the refusal of the United States - the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world - to ratify the protocol, due to the fear of damage to its economy, is a significant obstacle to its implementation.
From an economic point of view, the main significance of achieving the Kyoto goals is changes in the method of energy production in the developed countries of the world, and the development of technologies that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The impact on the individual will be more indirect, and may be expressed, among other things, in an increase in the price of fuel, due to the transition to the use of cleaner types of fuel that may be more expensive to produce.
Additional changes in lifestyles may be caused by increased awareness and the introduction of new standards set by governments to optimize home energy consumption. The Canadian newspaper "Toronto Star" recently reported on aware residents who changed their Ford cars, after driving five kilometers every day, 250 days a year, such a car emitted 342 kg of carbon dioxide. Instead of a Ford, the Canadians bought a Toyota, which runs on gas and electricity, and emits only 136 kg over the same distance. The newspaper also reported on a Canadian organization that distributed to a quarter of a million households an energy-saving guide containing the names of cars that consume fuel more efficiently, and recommendations for more economical cooling and heating inside the houses.
The protocol proposes several economic mechanisms to reduce emissions. A developed country can, for example, meet its obligations by investing in the preservation of forests in other parts of the world, thereby helping to absorb carbon dioxide in those forests. Another measure is the financing of projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in energy production facilities in poor countries, and another measure is international trade in carbon dioxide emission rights. Countries that have the possibility to emit greenhouse gases, according to the protocol, will be able to sell these rights on the international market.
Israel may also be involved in the new market. The Union of Dan Cities for Sanitation, which is responsible, among other things, for the Hirayeh site, published a tender last year for the provision of trading services in greenhouse gas emission rights. In Hiriya, methane gas emitted from the waste mountain is currently being collected, thus preventing the emission of the gas into the atmosphere. The Union could emit these gases according to Israel's obligations. However, now he will be able to sell his emission rights, and a country that purchases them will add them to the emissions reduction balance.
Reducing emissions at the national level is a difficult task, especially when it comes to the 15 countries of the European Union, which are in a state of constant economic growth, consuming more energy and producing more cars. These countries were supposed to achieve a reduction of 2002% by 4.8 on the way to the final reduction goal, but they reached a reduction rate of 2.9%.
About four months ago, the European Environmental Protection Agency published the latest report on the balance of greenhouse gas emissions. The report indicated a downward trend in emissions in 2002 compared to the previous year, but the main reason for this was not proactive policy, but hot weather that reduced the demand for heating, which consumes fuel high in greenhouse gases. In general, only four European countries - France, Great Britain, Germany and Sweden - are currently keeping pace with reducing emissions.
From the reports of the European Agency, it is possible to learn about measures to reduce emissions that are already yielding impressive results. One of them is a decision by the Union to reduce the number of waste disposal sites and to collect the methane gas at existing sites. The implementation of this decision significantly reduced the amount of methane emitted into the atmosphere. Another example is moving to a more efficient use of materials for fertilizing fields.
However, at the same time as the international implementation of the protocol, the scientific debate on the warming phenomenon is expected to continue. Most scientists have no doubt that sufficient evidence has accumulated for human influence on the climate, but there are still scientists who are not convinced. One of the main points of contention is to what extent a warming trend has been observed in the last hundred years.
The team of researchers on behalf of the United Nations adopted what was dubbed the "hockey stick graph". This graph reproduces the average temperature on Earth for the past thousand years, even before measurements began. It shows a fairly stable trend in previous centuries, and a sharp increase in the last hundred years, reminiscent of a bend in the end of a hockey stick. However, a few months ago, a study was published in the journal "Science" that analyzed the temperature data in the Northern Hemisphere over the past thousand years. According to the study, climate variability was much greater than what is seen in the hockey stick graph. Following this, two British scientists claimed that according to the new information, it is not possible to assess whether the current warming of the earth is unusual compared to the previous thousand years. Until there are more effective models for analyzing past temperature changes, it will be difficult to know how correct the UN experts' forecast is.
The scientific controversy may be significant when demands for stricter targets arise in the future within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol. In the meantime, most of the world's climate experts, including many governments, have come to the conclusion that there is no point in waiting for the models to be completed, and that we must prepare to prevent a possible disaster.
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