New findings from the analysis of morbidity in Bnei Brak may deepen the understanding of the spread and improve public health policy. The researchers suggest conducting a similar study in nursing homes
A new mathematical analysis suggests that people under the age of 20 are about 19% less susceptible to COVID-50 infection than adults, and are less likely to infect others. Itai Dettner from the University of Haifa and his colleagues present these findings in the Journal of Computational Biology PLOS. In an article titled: "The Role of Children in the Spread of COVID-19: Using Household Data from Bnei Brak, Israel, to Assess the Relative Susceptibility and Contagion of Children".
The study was published on February 11, which is last Thursday.
Previous studies have found differences in the symptoms and clinical course of COVID-19 in children compared to adults. Others have reported that a lower proportion of children are diagnosed compared to older age groups. However, only a few studies have compared infection patterns between age groups, and their conclusions are inconclusive.
To better understand children's susceptibility and contagion, Dettner and his colleagues ran mathematical and statistical models of intrahousehold contagion on data from COVID-19 test results from the densely populated city of Bnei Brak. The sample included 637 households whose residents underwent PCR tests to detect active carriers in the spring of 2020. Some of them also conducted serological tests for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
By fitting the data from the field to the model, the researchers found that people under the age of 20 are only 43% susceptible compared to people over the age of 20, and their infection rate is estimated at 63% of that of adults. Children are also less likely to spread COVID-19 to others. However, the researchers also found that children tend to get a negative PCR result more than adults even though they were actually infected.
These findings could explain reports worldwide that a lower proportion of children are diagnosed compared to adults. They can help update mathematical models of COVID-19 dynamics, and improve public health policy and control measures. Future mathematical research could explore the dynamics of contagion in other settings, such as nursing homes and schools.
"When we started this research, understanding the role of children in infection was a priority, in relation to the question of reopening schools," says Dettner. "It was exciting to work in a large multidisciplinary team, assembled by the Ministry of Health to deal with the issue quickly."
Yair Goldberg, Guy Kathriel, Rami Yaari, Nurit Gal, Yoav Miron, Arnona Ziv, Rivka Shafer, Yoram Hamo and their colleagues also participated in the study.
More of the topic in Hayadan:
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It's a shame that you don't give a link to the publication, and don't even indicate where the study was published. What is annoying on Ynet is twice as annoying on a scientific website.
Shut up already
Halas with the studies Halas to falsify data released