An expert in space law and international relations says that even the entry of commercial companies will not solve the problem because they are subject to the laws of the country in which they are registered
By Svetla Ben-Yitzhak Assistant Professor of Space and International Relations, Ayer University
Even during times of conflict on the ground, space has historically been an arena of cooperation between nations. But trends over the past decade suggest that the nature of space cooperation is changing, and the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine has underscored those changes.
I am an international relations researcher who studies the distribution of power in space - who are the main players, what capabilities do they have and who do they decide to cooperate with. Some researchers envision a future in which individual nations will pursue varying levels of dominance, while others envision a scenario in which commercial entities bring nations together.
But I believe that the future may be different. In recent years, groups of nations with similar strategic interests on Earth have come together to advance their interests in space, creating what I call "space blocs."
The USA and the Soviet Union dominated space activities during the Cold War. Despite the tensions on the ground, both acted carefully to avoid crises and even cooperated in several space projects.
As more countries developed their own space agencies, several international cooperative groups emerged. These include the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, the United Nations Committee for the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space and the Advisory Committee for Space Information Systems.
In 1975, ten European countries founded the European Space Agency. In 1998, the US and Russia joined efforts to build the International Space Station, which is now shared by 15 countries. These multinational ventures focused mainly on scientific cooperation and data exchange.
The emergence of blocs of countries in space
The European Space Agency, which now includes 22 countries, can be considered among the first space blocs. But a more pronounced shift towards this type of power structure can be seen after the end of the Cold War. Countries that shared interests on Earth began to band together to accumulate specific space assets, forming the Space Blocks.
In the last five years, several new space blocs have emerged with varying levels of political entities. These include the African Space Agency, with 55 member states; the Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency shared by seven member countries; and the Arab Space Coordination Group, which includes 12 member states in the Middle East.
These groups allow countries to cooperate closely with other countries in their blocs, but the blocs also compete with each other. Two recent space blocs - the Artemis Agreement and the Sino-Russian Moon Agreement - are an example of such competition.
race to the moon
The Artemis Agreements were launched in October 2020. They are managed by the US and currently include 18 member states. The group's goal is to return people to the moon by 2025 and establish a governmental framework for exploration and mining on the moon, Mars and beyond. The mission aims to build a research station at the south pole of the moon with a supporting lunar space station called Gateway.
Similarly, in 2019, Russia and China agreed to cooperate on a mission to send people to the South Pole of the Moon by 2026. This joint Sino-Russian mission also aims to eventually build a lunar base and place a space station in lunar orbit.
The fact that these blocs are not cooperating to carry out similar missions on the Moon suggests that strategic interests and rivalries on the ground have been transferred to space.
Any nation can join the Artemis Accords, but Russia and China – along with a number of their allies on Earth – have not done so because some see the accords as an effort to extend the US-dominated international order into outer space.
Similarly, Russia and China plan to open their future lunar research station to all interested parties, but no Artemis member state has expressed interest. The European Space Agency has even stopped some joint projects it had planned with Russia and is instead expanding its partnerships with the US and Japan.
The effect of space blocks on the ground
In addition to increasing presence in space, countries also use space blocks to strengthen their spheres of influence on the ground.
One example is the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization, established in 2005. Led by China, it includes Bangladesh, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru, Thailand and Turkey.
While its broad purpose is the development and launch of satellites, the organization's main goal is to expand and normalize the use of the Chinese BeiDou navigation system - the Chinese version of GPS. Countries that use the system may become dependent on China, as in the case of Iran.
The role of the private space companies
In the last decade we have experienced a tremendous growth of commercial activities in space. As a result, some researchers see a future of cooperation in space defined by shared commercial interests. In this scenario, commercial entities act as mediators between countries, uniting them behind specific commercial projects in space.
However, commercial companies are unlikely to dictate future international cooperation in space. According to current international space laws, any company that operates in space does so by extension of - and under the jurisdiction of - the government of its country.
The dominance of countries over the companies in space was clearly demonstrated through the crisis in Ukraine. As a result of the sanctions imposed by the country, many commercial space companies stopped cooperating with Russia. Considering the current legal framework, it is likely that states - not commercial entities - will continue to dictate the rules in the space.
Space blocks for cooperation or confrontation
I believe that in the future, formations of countries - such as space blocs - will be the main means by which countries will promote their national interests in space and on the ground. There are many advantages when countries come together and form space blocs. Space is a difficult medium, and therefore makes sense for a pool of resources, personnel and knowledge. However, such a system also comes with inherent dangers.
History offers many examples showing that the more rigid alliances become, the greater the likelihood of conflict. The growing rigidity of two alliances – the Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance – in the late 19th century is often cited as a key factor in the First World War.
A central lesson in it is that as long as the existing space blocs remain flexible and open to all, cooperation will flourish and the world may yet avoid open conflict in space. Maintaining the focus on scientific goals and exchanges between and within space blocks - while maintaining political rivalries - will help ensure the future of international cooperation in space.
For an article in The Conversation
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