In the last day, the answer to this question seems to be a much more serious "yes" than ever before.
Writer: Ofer Sadan
Since Elon Musk founded his private space company, the official stated goal of the company and Musk's ideology has been to establish a colony on Mars - for the purpose of turning humanity into a civilization of more than one planet.
Musk explains the philosophy behind this simple idea at every opportunity: to create a "backup" for humanity in case of a global disaster, and take the next step towards turning humanity into an interstellar civilization. After many rumors, Elon Musk today announced a practical plan to do just that. In his two-hour speech that ended only in the last few minutes, Musk detailed plans that are much more extensive and much more detailed than anything that has been presented to date. So what did we have there? In short: all the rocket and spacecraft programs that will take us to Mars, when they are launched, how they are built, and how such an ambitious mission is financed. What didn't we have there? The plans for establishing the colony itself, but according to Musk - this is a problem that solves itself.
And now a little in detail - Elon Musk presented plans that SpaceX has been working on quite secretly for quite a long time, to build the biggest rockets and spacecraft ever. His presentation began with an animated video of the launch of a spaceship with about a hundred people and a lot of equipment into orbit around the Earth, the return of the launcher to the ground, another launch using it of a refueling tank identical to the manned spaceship, connecting the refueling tank to the manned spaceship, and finally the trip to Mars. For a moment we thought that the animation video and the general plan were all that Musk had to present, but we were very glad of our mistake - it turns out that SpaceX has already designed and planned (but not yet built) all the stages of the plan - the manned spacecraft, its engines, the main launcher, the fuel tank, etc. .
But the main thing in this fascinating presentation was when Musk talked about his economic part - according to Musk, with traditional launch methods the cost of a ticket for one person to Mars is about 10 billion dollars (!). At such a price, no one is going to invest in such a venture. The main innovation in the program here is that it is aimed at reducing the cost to a price that is equal to the average price of a house in the USA, about 200 thousand dollars (even less than an average house in Israel). At such a price, Musk claims, ordinary people will buy the ticket themselves, finance the establishment of the future colony themselves, and be able to be its first residents.
Lack of jobs, surely there won't be. But how do you reduce the cost so drastically? The main secret is reuse. The launcher that launches the spacecraft into orbit around the Earth, then returns to the ground and is ready for reuse. The fuel tank performs the same scenario. Since the launcher returns, it can be used for several refueling missions and all refueling for the manned spacecraft that is actually going to Mars will be done in space in a much cheaper and more efficient way.
The manned spacecraft is not a one-way ticket either - since the gravity on Mars is much weaker than on Earth, the spacecraft is designed so that it can take off back to Earth without the large launcher used on the outward journey. Each such spacecraft will have a lifespan of about 30 years and will be able to make 12-15 consecutive trips. The main engineering challenges in the construction of this huge project, it turns out, are already behind us - in the last few days, SpaceX finished building and testing for the first time the main engine that is planned to be used in the massive rocket that is planned to be built. 42 such engines will have to be attached to the bottom of each launcher - not a particularly difficult task for a company that already builds about 300 engines of the same size each year.
First test of the Raptor Interplanetary Transport Engine pic.twitter.com/478Z4v86gD
- SpaceX (@SpaceX) September 27, 2016
The general design of the launcher is an enlarged version of the company's flagship vehicle - the Falcon 9 rocket, which it regularly uses to launch satellites and supply missions to the International Space Station. The biggest engineering challenge in this launcher will be its fuel cell, which is supposed to be a huge cell built entirely of carbon fiber, and since it was the most difficult challenge - SpaceX decided to finish it first - and have already built this massive tank. The rest of the challenges they face in building the massive project now all seem achievable, but it still leaves one difficult question - where will the money come from? Who will invest in the initial development stages? and why? First - Elon Musk declares that all the personal capital he builds for himself, he builds for one and only purpose - to have as much money as possible to invest in this project, and he undertakes to invest all his money in what he defines as "saving humanity from extinction, which will come sooner or later if we stay Stuck on only one planet."
Musk hopes that other visionaries and governments will join him in the project and understand its importance. But from a more practical point of view, SpaceX will finance this project with the help of other projects such as the huge contracts it obtains all over the world for satellite launches. Moreover, Musk announced at the same time that from today onwards SpaceX will launch in each "launch window" (it is possible to go on a trip to Mars only once every 26 months, due to the relative orbits of the Earth and Mars) a spacecraft to Mars from their existing fleet of spacecraft that will carry a payload of up to 3 tons And you can land on the surface of Mars.
Many research laboratories and space agencies around the world will certainly be happy to use this regular space train, and this may be joined by many business entities that will find interest in Mars at a relatively cheap cost. To get more technical details about the program and its schedule, we have no choice but to send you to see Musk's full presentation, but we will already tell you that the plan is to land the first people on Mars as early as 2024, just 8 years from now.
Some will say (and we are among them) that this is an overly ambitious and optimistic plan, but if we're being fair, that's what they said in 1962 about the crazy plan presented by US President Kennedy to land a man on the moon within a decade (and as you remember, it only took 7 years in the end). This is the first time in history that someone presented a plan so practical, so applicable, and so cheap (again - relatively) for frequent and meaningful trips to Mars - and that includes all the space agencies in the world. Pretty amazing considering it's one person with a private company. long term,
The overarching goal of the program is to create a real city on Mars that will generate its own fuel for round trips, and will house about a million people. It's a process that, according to Musk, will take about a hundred years, and will require a fleet of roughly a thousand reusable spaceships - but it has to be started at some point. From that moment on, the relative ease of launching from Mars will allow us to use the exact same tools to move around the rest of the solar system and establish additional colonies in the same format (and of course, future technologies will be even more efficient). And on a personal note, I will end with a recommendation: even for those of you who find the technical details that have not been explained here unnecessary, it is highly recommended to at least see the beginning of the presentation linked to in the comments, if only to see Musk himself talking about it. Musk is not the best speaker in the world, he stutters a bit and lacks confidence - but his intelligence, his courage, and his huge ambitions are some of the most inspiring things I have seen in a long time. And now all that remains is to ask - who goes first?
Big science, little one
14 תגובות
Avishai and Chaim - you are wrong about the land of Mars. Mars first of all lacks a magnetic field. Even if you manage to create an atmosphere, it will disappear due to solar storms. The land of Mars needs to combine 2 efforts:
1) Emission of greenhouse gases in order to "warm" Mars
2) Creating a magnetic field that will protect Mars from solar winds and loss of atmosphere as a result
Thanks to Eric for the scholarly and thoughtful response.
A. The moon does not compete with Mars. Both this and that are possible. In your words there is a hidden and wrong assumption of either one or the other.
B. The dream of securing humanity is no small matter. There is only one disaster that could hit Israel and Mars at the same time. All the rest of the list of disasters - you won't hurt either this or that.
third. Landing Mars is a possibility, especially as technology advances in a geometric column. In my opinion, in 10 years they will read your article with a smile. I'm sure they will set up planetary factories on the Amads to glorify him. In my opinion it will happen in decades and not in hundreds. Many jobs will be done on Mars by robots, or remotely controlled robots. For robots the temperature range on Mars is not problematic. Technology will solve the rest of the expressions as well. There is no real problem with the soil of Mars: all the necessary minerals are there.
Thinks that he should first cooperate with the promoters of the Mars One program.
This already gives him 4 clients, their own plan to establish a colony, ratings and will save the entrepreneurs a lot of money that will be spent on things they don't have like safety.
Although giving up on the plan altogether and trying to settle people on the moon instead sounds like a much better idea.
Everything said by the supporters and opponents (including the proposal to settle the moon first) makes sense and is true for the most part. However, one has to look broadly at the history of the human race to understand the rationale and logic behind the project proposed by Elon Musk. Difficult challenges and curiosity have always motivated the human race to explore and search for the unknown and dangers have never stopped it. This systematic behavior has brought us to our advanced state today. It is impossible to change the temperament of the human race which is embedded in its DNA. And so, if it is possible to reach and settle Mars - it will happen. And if not in the current project - then in the next project.
As a matter of fact, the topic of Mars land was raised many years ago and various ways of its implementation were proposed (including calculations and simulations that show its feasibility). It is true that the process will last several hundred years, but as soon as the technology allows it - the process will begin. The takeover of the Americas by the Europeans also took many years without being worthwhile in the beginning and while dealing with the natives and the forces of nature - and yet it happened. The issue of grounding Mars is actually the big difference between Mars and the Moon on which it is obviously not possible to ground. In my opinion, a base on the moon should be built at the same time as a base on Mars.
It is true that these are huge investments, but for the price of an average apartment there will be a flood of pioneers, tourists and adventurers who will finance the projects.
In conclusion, whether we like it or not - it will happen and kudos to Elon Musk for the initiative and I hope he succeeds.
Avishai
The density of the atmosphere of Mars is one hundredth the density of the air on Earth. Blood will never survive without space suits and an oxygen source.
Eric L, most of your claims may be justified, but the "annoying" atmosphere of Mars can be changed and thickened by the emission of greenhouse gases that will come from industry and factories that will be established on the surface of Mars.
Such a grounding process will last several hundred years, but in the end, it will be possible to live on Mars as we live on Earth (without space suits at all).
For comparison and as you know, the moon does not have even the faintest atmosphere.
You will agree with me that it is much easier to change an existing atmosphere than to create it from scratch.
Snupkin is right,
For some reason, Mars has been perceived in the human mind in recent decades as the twin of the Earth - when in fact there is no, and I repeat - no advantage in having Mars and not the Moon for example.
Contrary to what you are told, Mars has the following problems:
1. Radiation - the radiation levels on Mars are terrible - the people who will live there will get cancer even if they walk around in a protected space suit all their lives. I assume that the children will not be allowed to leave the colonies at all. Although it is possible to overcome this with the help of underground colonies - but it is also possible on the moon.
2. Atmosphere - Mars has an "annoying" atmosphere - such a low amount that for humans it is considered a vacuum for all intents and purposes - meaning it requires full space suits. On the other hand, any spacecraft that lands on Mars will have to deal with heating due to friction at high speeds - and because of the very low air pressure there - a parachute will hardly help. This also means by the way that any hole in the colony can kill everyone because the air will just fly out as if it were space.
3. Gravity - on Mars is 1/3 of that on Earth. in the moon is 1/6. There is no certainty that this is enough so that problems of lack of gravity will not manifest themselves, certainly in the span of many years.
4. Distance - Mars is very far relative to the Moon - a flight window is close once every 26 months, and even then 9 months. There is no real-time communication, so if something goes wrong and you need help from Earth - you don't want to be there. The moon, on the other hand, in the technologies of the 60s, is 3 days' flight away, communication is immediate for the purpose of capturing humans - so if assistance is needed, including remote control of equipment - this is absolutely possible.
5. The distance is also reflected in the available energy - on Mars there is much less solar energy, and in addition due to the low gravity - dust storms that remain for months. Because of the low atmosphere - wind energy will be problematic. Aviation will also be problematic - a plane will need a much larger wingspan, for example. And of course about geothermal or water energy - nothing to talk about. Which leaves us with nuclear power. Has anyone mapped uranium / plutonium ores on Mars? Or humans will have to start flying nuclear reactors from Earth to Mars. On the moon - even more solar energy is available than on Earth, and in addition, again, because of the distance - even supplying nuclear reactors within a few days will not be a big problem.
Also in terms of opening up the rest of the solar system for us - Mars has no advantage over the Moon - on the contrary. Because Mars has a greater mission force, it will be more difficult to get out of its gravity well than the Moon.
Because of the atmosphere and the dust storms - we will not get a better observation with telescopes than on the moon.
These 2 sky masses will need the same radiation protection, the same sealing against air leakage, and the same health problems (probably) in terms of lack of gravity. Both also have water in an amount available and sufficient for any future colony in the foreseeable future.
the difference? The moon is much closer to the earth, unlike Mars it actually allows the utilization of solar energy at the same level as the earth (even better than the earth itself because there are no clouds), in my opinion the colony on the moon will also have a much better chance of justifying itself financially because sending materials and products back to the earth The country will be much faster, including the establishment of large space stations for orbit around the Earth that will be established there, and also provides from a scientific point of view much more interest in my opinion - first of all, the possibility of setting up telescopes on the far side of the Moon, without interference from the atmosphere or radio transmissions from the Earth, and a significant possibility that Very ancient fossils found their way from the ancient Earth to the Moon, and did not undergo decay.
By the way, there is another very, very important thing about Mars - in my opinion, until they completely rule out the possibility that there is life there today - even under the surface - it is absolutely forbidden to settle it. We disinfect every robotic spaceship we send there today - but humans, and greenhouses for oxygen / food production, we can't really disinfect. The possibility of contamination of any living production found there, or the destruction of an entire ecosystem - is too great to risk such a thing.
So a goal of another 6 years for a colony on Mars is a very problematic goal.
How would I explore Mars? I would send a space station to attack Mars, and humanoid robots to the surface - so that they are capable of fine motor skills that only a human arm and fingers are capable of.
The control of these robots will be with the help of the most advanced virtual reality technologies so that the humans will feel every thing and thing that they are on Mars itself - including the unique diagnostic ability of human intelligence to notice things that a robot cannot.
This space station, in which I would also realize royal gravity by rotating, can of course be built in the successful colony that will be built on the moon 🙂
It's amazing how many people get caught up in this dumb fantasy and how much money is wasted.
Mars is the epitome of hell and even if the Earth reaches a state where it cannot support life it will still be more habitable than Mars. No air, more freezing than Antarctica and toxic dust...
Our biological imperative is to spread out but it has taken over some people's brains.
It is simpler to establish a marine civilization or at the poles, but no one wants to be there because it is not romantic enough. We'll see how romantic it will be for people after they get there.
If so - kudos to him. In my estimation, this is a project in the region of 400 billion dollars and requires the joint action of the USA, Europe, China, Russia, India and others. Each company will develop a complex. The unification is not happening because, for example, the US wants to plant a flag there first and claim ownership. That may be a lot of money in 100-200 years.
Another problem it will cause is the obsolescence of democracy. Silver barons will be the masters of our lives in every sense of the word. Caesars.
His vision is logical and correct - humanity must settle in other planets in order to survive in the long run.
The question is how the execution will be and if there are malfunctions like with the busy satellite, the program will encounter difficulties and be delayed.
It may be better in the first stage to establish a base on the moon to develop technologies for space travel and survival on other planets.
There are many challenges that need to be solved in space travel - radiation protection, energy from nuclear fusion, solar sails...
I thought he thought humanity was living in a simulation, so why would he want to save people from a global disaster?
And what do sane citizens have to look for on Mars?
The man is a little off the rails.