The economy of sub-Saharan countries is vulnerable to economic and social effects, since many of their inhabitants are engaged in agriculture, the "big" farmers are at the mercy of the global market, this is when climate changes cause high sensitivity
At the same time, the earth is subject to environmental pressures: forests are being cut down, agricultural land is losing its fertility, population density is increasing, the number of the poor is steadily increasing, and epidemics such as malaria, AIDS and intestinal diseases are weakening the ability to exist for many populations.
Above all, the cloud of climate change that endangers the existence of millions casts a heavy shadow. One of the many trying to find solutions is Dr. Mahendra Shah, born in Kenya, who worked at the UN and the World Bank, in organizing and delivering aid and economic planning, today an economist and systems analyst at ASAA (an international institute for the implementation of economic systems based in Austria).
In August 2002 he submitted a working paper to the World Summit on Environmental Issues (WSSD) in Johannesburg under the title "Climate change and its impact on agriculture". By reviewing data from around the world and using various models, Dr. Shah predicts the impact of climate change on agriculture in the next eighty years and tries to present options for solutions.
Since the review includes the African countries in detail and lists proposals and solutions for each country, the review was distributed without copyright claims, but simply in an attempt to help.
Referring to sub-Saharan African countries, Dr. She claims that: the economy of these countries is vulnerable to economic and social effects, since many of their inhabitants are engaged in agriculture, the "big" farmers are at the mercy of the world market, this is when climate changes cause high sensitivity. A number of climate change forecasts predict for Africa a significant increase in heat and as a result increased evaporation, that is, the drying of areas and their desertification. For example: the predictions are that in the semi-desert desert region in the south of the continent) where 180 million people currently live, by 2080 the dry areas will increase by about 10%, which means an existential danger for the inhabitants of the "semi-desert" regions. This is in light of the fact that today in the sub-Saharan African regions there are about 200 million people living undernourished, with a strong economy the problems caused by the climatic changes can be properly addressed, but when referring to sub-Saharan Africa, progress will be slow due to the socio-demographic structure and the expected doubling of the population in the 21st century
Countries such as Mozambique or DRAP, where the forecasts show a loss of agricultural production capacity of up to 50% due to climate change, are of concern. For this nation, countries such as Kenya or Uganda are considered "winners" because in them the same forecasts predict the possibility of increasing agricultural production, due to the expected climate changes as - 14 countries benefit from improved conditions for agricultural creation and in a similar number of countries the climate damages agricultural production by up to 50% and again the affected countries are dense whose population will further double.
And so despite the intentions and announcements of all international bodies and organizations to cut the number of the world's poor in half by 2015, in the case of the sub-Saharan countries, even an increase in production of 4% per year will not have an effect in favor of the hungry.
One of the "losing" countries is Mozambique, where 18 million inhabitants currently live, in the next fifty years the population will increase to 28 million, today the average income per person is one hundred dollars per year. Due to intermittent floods and drought years, Mozambique loses 52% (every year) of its food production from the agricultural areas, despite positive basic data (water, agricultural land, mild climate) Mozambique is at the mercy of its neighbors who control the flow of the rivers and regulate the water quantities, lack of consideration on the one hand, ignorance and short-sightedness On the other hand, floods cause damage instead of the well-being that the amounts of water could bring, since both the floods and the periods of drought are attributed to climatic changes, one of the causes of which is the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere...
It is ironic that Mozambique only emits (per person) 0.1 tons of carbon dioxide, while in developing countries (in Africa) the average is 2 tons, and in developed countries (Europe - USA) 11 tons. To solve the problems, Dr. Shah suggests cooperation between All the countries surrounding Mozambique (and similar) and help from the developed countries, which are responsible for climate change. Based on a data base collected by approximately 600 scientists over 6 years, Dr. She suggests that each country should be treated individually, by the state authorities as well as by the international bodies involved in providing aid, when the aid will be provided as sustainable technologies that will allow the residents to improve their situation and their future, and not only as food that solves a current problem and does not provide an incentive for a future solution. In the sub-Saharan countries, the agricultural "lobby" has no power at all, in part due to the fact that in many cases the management of the private agricultural economy is in the hands of the women....
The government (in these countries) must make a sharp turn in its attitude to farmers and agriculture to direct budgets and resources to the development of innovative, simple and sustainable technological means on the one hand, development of traditional crops and varieties and their adaptation to changing conditions, use of traditional (tribal-folk) information to strengthen various branches of agriculture, use and development of varieties (livestock, field crops, etc.) local with many advantages acquired over generations.
Development and adoption of crops that will be adapted to the changing conditions, regional and global cooperation to market and distribute agricultural products in exchange for which the countries will receive means of production (again, sustainable) suitable for the needs of each country and its population, the developed countries (in the West) must help since most of the natural resources in Africa have been extracted for many years by Colonialist forces without compensation for the inhabitants of the colonies, as well as the climate changes were caused by developed countries and therefore it is their duty to do everything to minimize the destructive impact.
The corn campaign
One of the countries where the contrast between the possibilities and the present is Ethiopia. In the mid-80s, a severe famine prevailed in Ethiopia to such an extent that even today Ethiopia is a name synonymous with famine. The country was rescued from the famine mainly with the help of international organizations that donated food and financial aid. On the face of it, it seems that as a country most of whose inhabitants are engaged in agriculture, a large-scale famine will be the result of a continuous drought, a situation that exists again today, intermittently. It turns out that despite the production of food in quantities that were sufficient, the hunger continued.
In the mid-90s, the Ethiopian government tried to make "agrarian changes" as part of them: the government made regulations and tried to bring about changes that were supposed to serve as "insurance" against famine: as part of a "package" improvements were given to small farmers: means to promote advanced technology, seeds of drought-resistant varieties that carry crops Improved knowledge and the possibility of using chemical fertilizers, this together with an economic reform that reduced inflation to almost zero, and the regulation of the financial system and maintaining the value of the currency caused a considerable improvement.
Farmers who adopted the improvements received improved crops to the point of doubling production: if in the 6s about 90 million cubic meters of grain were produced, then towards the end of the 10s production reached more than 15 cubic meters. Despite what appears to be a great success, today the number of hungry people is estimated at 80 million, a greater disaster than it was in the 1.7s. The main grain is corn and is therefore used as a benchmark for all the other major crops. Drought found in large parts of Africa in general and Ethiopia in particular...and also resistant to local pests, the advantage of corn is the large amount of harvest (for a given area) and its nutritional value which is much higher than that of sorghum. In the general index, the price of corn rose from 2000 points in 9.0 to 2002 in 2002. Despite this, growing corn became unprofitable for the farmer because of the huge price gap (between the producer and the consumer). This lack of feasibility led the farmers to abandon technological innovations and mainly to stop using fertilizers, (due to financial cost), the farmers' retreat was joined by the uncooperative weather - the false rainy season, and in 20 only about 50% of the usual and the land was "dry" fell. The combination of factors caused a decrease of More than 15% in the corn crops, and a decrease of more than XNUMX% in the crops of all agricultural crops. And so despite an increase in fortification in previous years, the crops collapse and the farmers who are unable to meet the loan payments, experience the failure of progress.
It seems that the solution to the cycle of hunger is a shortcut from the producer to the consumer, even though the loss prices (for the farmer) are too high for the hungry, what's more, most of them have no access to the markets at all, also only about a quarter of the agricultural produce reaches the markets where they are needed, and again the reason is the poor organization of the agricultural trade Which results in most of the produce being sold in central markets, in small quantities and at high prices.
To demonstrate the strange situation, here is a tracking of a bag of corn:
On day 1, the farmer, with the help of a donkey, transports a sack (100 kg) of corn to the local market, and sells it for 40 birr (about 5 dollars). Between the days of 10-2, the sack is transported in a small truck for storage and sold to a merchant in a regional market for 70 Birr. Between the days 16-11, a "regional merchant" takes care of the sack: stores it until a buyer is found, arranges transport and sells it for 80 birr. On days 23-17, a "district" merchant handles the bag and sells it to a wholesaler for 100 birr.
On days 30-24, the sitnai divides the sack (100 kg) into small quantities (about 5 kg) and sells it to the consumer for 120 Birr.
From the producer to the consumer, the sack of corn "wandered" for 30 days and added 200% to its value, that is: the farmer received for his produce a third of the price paid by the consumer, to the high transport prices (due to poor transport infrastructure) many intermediaries are added, and they all collect their share...
For comparison, in developing countries in Asia, agricultural produce reaches the markets in three days and with a price difference of 30%. Produce that anywhere else reaches the market within two, three days, is dragged on the road and in warehouses for 30 days and the price climbs by 200%. Of course, throughout the entire process there is no quality control and there is no enforcement, taxation or any central supervision. Since the merchants determine both the place of sale and the price, it is clear that the hungry in the faraway areas have no chance to enjoy agricultural produce, (even if it is found in abundant markets).
A similar situation also arises when various bodies come to the aid of the hungry, because of the "corn campaign" described, it is cheaper to bring food from outside and again, Ethiopian farmers do not sell their produce, and the country's hungry do not get the imported food. The "agrarian reform" is on the way, but in order for it to be successful and bring returns to both farmers and the hungry, the number of middlemen and the time of the "journey" from the producer to the consumer must be cut, and above all the produce must be brought to the markets in remote areas where the needy are, of course, for this, the The transport and storage infrastructures and to shorten the procedures. In Ethiopia, where most of the inhabitants are engaged in agriculture, there should be no hunger.
