The Russian space station Mir will burn up in the Earth's atmosphere in an orderly and controlled manner, and despite communication problems the probability that the spacecraft will fall in an inhabited area is extremely slim
The disconnection with the Russian spacecraft "Mir" today was just another glitch in a very unflattering list of glitches in the aging spacecraft. For some time, private parties have been trying to breathe life into the spacecraft, after the Russians announced their intention to return to Earth due to the lack of budgets, but the efforts did not go well, and the Russians announced a few weeks ago their intention to stop the spacecraft's activities at the end of this February.
The intention is to drop it in a controlled manner, so that it will penetrate the atmosphere at a given angle, which will cause it to burn when falling over one of the oceans. But the problems in communication with the spacecraft could endanger or completely thwart efforts to return in a controlled manner. In such a case, the spacecraft will gradually lose altitude, until at some point the friction in the upper layers of the atmosphere will cause its speed to slow down and eventually fall to Earth.
According to such a scenario, it will not be possible to predict where it will fall, except a few hours before it enters the atmosphere. There is a danger that not the entire spaceship - which is large and consists of several modules - will burn up during its passage through the atmosphere, and parts of it will reach the ground.
But there is no need to go down to the shelters. Even if the spacecraft enters the atmosphere in an uncontrolled manner, the chances are high that its fire will occur over one of the oceans, which make up about two-thirds of the Earth's surface, or if it falls over land, its parts will be scattered over one of the deserts or in an uninhabited area. So although the possibility cannot be ruled out completely, the probability that parts of the spaceship will fall in an inhabited area is extremely slim.
Ilan Manolis is the chairman of the division for small bodies in the solar system, in the Israel Astronomical Society
(Appeared in Haaretz newspaper, 27/12/2000)
