The President of the State Shimon Peres and the future Raymond (Ray) Kurzweil met to talk about the future as part of the discussions of the President's Conference which is currently taking place in the Nation Buildings in Jerusalem.
Ray Kurzweil, known as the "heir of Thomas Edison", is considered by personalities like Bill Gates as the most talented future in the world today. Kurzweil invented the scanner, the OCR technology, developed technologies for voice recognition and artificial intelligence. He is a futurist, inventor, artificial intelligence researcher and best-selling author (The Singularity Is Near, Machines Are Computing). He has over a million subscribers to his websiteBelow are the prominent quotes from the meeting between President Shimon Peres and the future Ray Kurzweil:
About Israel:
- Israel is very advanced in the fields of alternative energy, especially solar, in the field of nanotechnology and biotechnology.
- Israel is well positioned. Her blessing is that she has no external resources, so she has no choice but to rely on the intellect. In 20 years nano tech and energy storage will be leading and the oil majors will go bankrupt. Israel will lead as an intellectual powerhouse.
On the future of humanity on Earth:
Health, vitality and humanity:
- Since the mapping of the human genome, it has been used as operating software for the human body, and thus biotechnology today is a science for everything.
- It will be possible to produce new genes by gene technologies. We can anesthetize and neutralize genes that create heart disease, cancer, obesity and aging processes.
- In twenty years we will know the brain in a way. It is important to know and understand the brain so that we can reproduce and enhance its abilities
- In twenty years for every year we have we will be able to add another year thanks to technologies that will be a million times stronger than what we have today. If you last the 15-20 years until the end of the development you can extend your life significantly.
- Within 20 years there will be computers that will convincingly claim to have feelings of hate, joy, fear, etc. This would create real dilemmas about whether it is real or not if the entity is non-biological. In my opinion, this question should not be dismissed.
Earth:
- * I was asked together with Gary Page to examine several types of alternative energies and create a strategy for the American government. We chose solar energy. There is 10,000 times more sun than we need. Today, solar energy provides half of the world's consumption. Within 16 years, solar energy will be able to supply 100% of the world's electricity consumption.
- Currently there is a problem of balance on the planet - China has limited the number of births and today has a problem of 70,000 single men. This is a consequence of the old generation. As the technological revolution grows stronger, there will no longer be a need to favor boys and the balance will return.
- Thanks to the advancement of technology, poverty in China was reduced by 70% within a decade. Today 2/3 of the world has a phone with access to all the information in the world. There are 100 million blogs in China, including farmers blogging from their cell phones in the field. This is a revolution. The inequality is because of old economies and technologies and this will change.
- Today there is real progress in the development of nano-technologies for cleaning dirty and salty water and within a few years the water problems will be solved. It will be possible to grow plants with technologies that will reduce and speed up the process of creating food, it will be possible to produce meat for eating without raising animals by cloning animal body parts and growing chicken feet, for example, in special factories for this.
- Maybe there will come a point when man will decide to look for life on another planet, but it will probably only be in the next millennium.
Future inventions expected in 15-20 years:
- Tools for simultaneous oral and written translation will bridge all language gaps and allow anyone of any age to talk to anyone anywhere.
- Computers will continue to shrink until we wear them on our clothes the size of a button and then become the microscopic size of cells and be inside our bodies.
- There will be nano-computers inside the body that will be able to identify cancer cells in the earliest stages and destroy them, others will clean the body from the inside.
- Tiny computers that will be worn on the glasses, will talk directly into our heads. Just look at a person and the computer will recognize him by name, where I know him from, and when his birthday is.
- Nanotechnology developments that will be inserted into the lungs will make it possible to stop breathing and stay underwater for hours in a row, other developments will make it possible to run marathons at the speed of a sprint.
Where to put the accents in order to fit "into tomorrow"
- Human knowledge doubles every 14 months in every field, including technology, art, literature, music. Today any child can compose a piece for a philharmonic orchestra right from his room and with simple means. It is important to teach children entrepreneurship from a young age and to follow their passions.
- Very young people developed Google and Facebook and created revolutions. Entrepreneurial qualities must be encouraged and taught to children from an early age. The entrepreneurship process will create a need to study additional subjects alongside the main occupation. This way, children will both learn about a field that is close to their hearts and also influence the world at large.
General and on his own:
- Yade has wanted to be an inventor since he was five years old, when he put together various toys he received from his parents and created a new purpose for them. Discovered the computer when he was 12 years old, when there were only 12 computers in New York State.
- The key to success is timing. Look back two or three years and see how much has changed in just these years. The whole topic of social networks didn't exist at all, think about life without internet and without search engines. The trick is to meet the train while it's traveling at the right moment.
- Engaged in studying technological trends for over 30 years. He developed a short scientific formula "that can be written on a T-shirt", according to which he manages to identify trends and technological developments with the precision of identifying the year in which various problems will be solved.
- On artificial intelligence: people ask why we don't see uses for artificial intelligence. But artificial intelligence is like the animals in the rainforest - you don't see them but you know they are there. If they stop using everything based on artificial intelligence at once - our whole world will stop. It develops technologies, flies planes, authorizes credit card usage and is found in basically every area of life today. 15 years ago it was still only at the research level.
- Already today there is a nano stretcher software that treats Parkinson's patients. An article was recently published in the New York Times which expressed fear of hacker intrusions into these and future computers that will be developed.
More of the topic in Hayadan:
29 תגובות
Hmmmmmm
Hahahahahahaha
Good Morning?????
(Or what makes a person write a response to a 4-year-old article?)
Regarding the computer on the glasses, it is possible and even more possible in the coming years!
Already today there are the Google glasses that she developed and it is about to go into mass production in about a year.
At the moment this is only the first stage in the evolution of such glasses, in three years you will see more and more companies developing such glasses.
The Apple company also started producing such glasses that would give competition to Google, Apple has already registered several patents on their glasses.
That's how revolutions are made gentlemen, one person who thought of an idea promoted it and then it's like a snowball that can't be stopped every company wants one too.
And hopefully in two or three years you already have a second generation of such glasses.
A small computer on the glasses...come on Ray, only you still have glasses.
In my opinion, the near future is predictable, the medium is unpredictable, and the far future is also predictable.
In the near future - we will continue to develop technology - which is a planned reality from the lessons of the past into the future
And in the distant future - we will become extinct naturally.
There is no doubt that the prediction that Kurzweig gave is a possible future.
The question is how much inhibiting factors are weighted in his predictive formula
Such as one or another global financial barons that some of the developments are against their personal interest...
Reminds me of myself at the age of 10...
"Growing animal body parts" sounds funny, and a bit fictional.
Although I have to reserve the explanation of "implanting a brain", except for the fact that it is possible to create a "perfect" copy of a human being if he can say hello to that person and the person responds then it is a sign that the consciousness is not exactly jumping from one shell to another. It is probably possible to slowly and gently move the living brain each time in the cell in a way that it has control over it to another configuration that might be more affluent, but again, it is likely that the brain will still be sitting in the skull even if it is now fed with electricity in part.
Regarding life expectancy once again, once again he is right in that he criticizes the fact that we are trying to treat diseases that will appear anyway at any age and similar resources should be invested in order to reverse the seemingly natural degeneration in the body of DNA damage, telomeres, arthrosclerosis and deposits, etc. There is nothing wrong with that "Magic" or "taboo" although I suppose that some religious people will strongly object to it on the grounds of population growth, etc. but it is nothing that should be listened to.
Regarding the increase in the rate of research, of course the academic-scientific method today is subject to limitations such as debatable patents and many side effects that slow down the business as well as a lack of what will happen in the future that will speed it up.
I guess quite a lot of people here started thinking about the "singularity" (not to my taste, but okay) when the concept for a lab on a chip started gaining momentum. It's nothing that can't cost less than a few tens of shekels per unit. Today, the number of chips from the 80s that are sold in things like thermometers is rising. This thing will be able to perform tests and log information every day and prevent a lot of problems. such roughly of senses and learning compared to people who don't (physical activity adds 8 on average according to a study I read a quote from)
Ray, take your pills (antioxidants, what were you thinking?) and take it easy
I hope that you and I (the concerned citizen that I am) will sit down one day and discuss how to keep the rate of increase in life expectancy fast enough to make it to the 22nd century.
Regarding Israel I can only be pessimistic, such and such religious and national elements are grinding the foundation of the state and although the step against those in the world will be made, we because we endured the holocaust will not be the first to act in extreme ways. So it is likely that Israel does not have a high chance, but the future can reveal interesting things and quick turns.
To the commenter to number 8:
Come on - the weather is not the same... really not the same...
And the weather couldn't be predicted for more than a week... and the weather is a much less predictable thing and much more dependent on man!
For a person, even if we assume that he does not have the right to choose, each one is still very different from the other...
And he pretends to claim what will happen in another 15 years... lol
All he does is look at the hottest inventions today and chooses the ones that look the best to him...
I can do it too (and I do too) but I don't claim that it will look like this...
I also often think like him, but then again any person with common sense can think about it on their own....
"Where to put the accents in order to match "Tomorrow"" - what bullshit, I can't believe people listen to such a thing at all...
And just for fun, here is my prediction for the future - (in about 20-15 years)
He will find a new source of energy, much more efficient and less polluting, and the soothsayer Ray Kurzweil will solve all the theories! (I wish)
He generally talks about sensible things, but again they are really, really trivial... really unworthy of an article...
And another criticism (definitely justified) about Ray Kurzweil and the strange things he claims:
http://www.stevens.edu/csw/cgi-bin/blogs/csw/?p=200
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/02/futurists_make_me_cranky.php
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/02/singularly_silly_singularity.php
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/05/ray_kurzweil_wants_to_be_a_rob.php
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/05/ray_kurzweil_is_in_a_snit.php
and so'
To 19
Simple fiscal systems are indeed predictable, they obey the laws of science. Therefore it is no wonder that by and large (the seasons) it is possible to predict the seasons. In contrast, physical systems are more complex, for example temperatures
In three weeks they are no longer predictable even though they obey the laws of nature, the problem is simply too complex, but the article is not about physical systems.
Regarding these technological innovations, they are often not predictable because it is not enough that they conform to the laws of nature, they are also required for feasibility. The additional constraints that technologies are required to meet are engineering and economic. Sometimes a technological invention is genius but not economical or it cannot be implemented engineering. Innovations that are small extensions of existing devices can often be predicted that there will be someone who will make them. I will give one example to illustrate - the journeys into space
Although the technology has been around for forty years, the manned journey into space has hardly progressed, it does not appear that a person has gone outside our solar system. Some of the constraints are technological and some are economic in this matter - the Cold War is over and the powers have no interest in financing manned flights.
Kurzweil's claims quoted in the article are partly science fiction: even translation software, which on the face of it seems like a simple task, is an extremely difficult goal, and it is doubtful that a breakthrough will be achieved in the near future. The use of solar energy for global electricity needs is a fiction given the efficiency of the photovoltaic cells that exist today, what is more, there are problems such as storing electricity for the night hours when there is no sun and dependence on clouds and more... The question regarding computers that knew how to imitate human emotions is also philosophically problematic and relates to deep problems such as The thought experiment of the "Chinese room" and more and more
Regarding the example you gave regarding Moore's Law, it is an example of the influence of the market on technology. Market forces are what push the technology forward, but Moore's Law is also facing a scientific wall. Soon the chips will be so small that quantum theory will have to be taken into account and a completely different technology will be needed. This is one of the reasons for the intense interest in quantum computers. As we know, the technology of a quantum computer has not yet been able to be produced, although as far as we know the idea itself does not contradict any physical law.
It is absolutely not true that predictions only work for the near term, take for example the seasons, right now I can assure you that in the next 12 months we will see 4 complete cycles of winter, spring, summer and autumn, you can also be sure that the earth will complete Within the next 12 months an orbit around the sun and the like...
The same goes for Moore's Law, which continues to operate in a very predictable and consistent manner for decades, and there is no apparent reason why the situation will suddenly change and technological progress will stop, this is very different from the dollar exchange rate.
Eddie:
I share your reservations about the situation you described, but I don't believe it will happen.
It is hard for me to believe that technology will allow this in the foreseeable future and even if technology does allow this - uses of this type will likely be prohibited by law (just as drugs are prohibited today).
There is a fundamental difference between prophecy and extrapolation. When it is assumed that the (very) near future is determined by the situation today, it is an extrapolation, when you try to project it to long periods of time, it is a prophecy. Example: the assumption that since the value of the dollar decreased today, it will also decrease tomorrow (or also because it was rainy today and it will be rainy tomorrow) is very good in the short term but creates absurd predictions for the long term.
Idan,
I read the link you gave in 7 about Kotzweil's librarian (singularity), and the truth is - I feel a somewhat ambivalent feeling, which has a bit of discomfort - in the face of the onslaught of computerization.
For example, regarding the second stage of the future development it is written as follows:
"The nanorobots in the brain will be able to "dress up" the neurons, thus creating a complete illusion of virtual reality (just like in the Matrix). We will be able to create a virtual world that will be completely realistic for us in every respect - feeling, emotions, senses - everything! The difference is that we will be able to control our world. We will be able to choose how we will look, where we will move around, even what the laws of physics will be. Connectivity to the Internet (or rather, what the Internet will be in the future), will allow us to communicate perfectly with other people, or rather with the virtual images of other people."
Honestly, it's pretty scary to think that humanity will have the option to get rid of real reality and live in an illusory reality. This danger is not fundamentally different from the danger of global addiction to hallucinogenic drugs. It brings up echoes from the historical past where great civilizations and mighty empires collapsed due to narcissism, delusion, addiction to hedonism and other personal dissonances that spread on a societal scale.
If this futuristic vision of Courzeil comes true, it looks like it could be the end of Western culture, if not more.
Bigumbom, a weather forecast is also a type of "prophecy", but the fact is that it works and we all live by it, there are quite a few things that can be accurately predicted, like a ball rolling down a slope and you can know exactly where it will be every second, or what the state of A cloud of gas within a given area in so-and-so seconds, this despite the fact that it is made of trillions of molecules, each of which moves completely unpredictably.
Kurzweil has proven more than once that his words are well founded, he backs up his words with data and many examples, he is not just talking in the air.
Abby, one of the encouraging articles, thank you!
Oh, shut up already, you bunch of losers.
What's up, does it bother you that someone has a bit of ambition, and doesn't waste his time on "A Star Is Born", that's the point??!
Nanotechnology will not help in your case:
In order to find this thing that activates you (which is usually supposed to be a brain) we will have to wait until they invent the "yukto-technology"...
There are many problems with nuclear energy, if the matter was so simple everyone would use this solution and as you know that is not the case. Ray Kurzweil talks about clean energy directly from the sun that will supply all human energy consumption, and there will be a surplus. What's better than that? What exactly are you complaining about?
Energy from the sun? And what if nuclear energy and especially nuclear fusion reactors are also "the future".
Shi basically you are right, in any case check the links I gave in response 7.
There is a very big lack in the article that I also noticed in many other articles on the site.
Links! Almost every article on the site makes me want to continue reading on one or more of the topics discussed in the article.
"He has over a million subscribers to his website" - why not put a link to his website?
As Idan added above - a link to the other lectures from the conference.
The prophecy was given to fools - which does not mean they are still making money from it
1. A very interesting article about his book "The Near Singularity" -
http://www.tapuz.co.il/blog/ViewEntry.asp?EntryId=1065939
2. Watching all the lectures from the conference, including Ray Kurzweil's lecture (browsing below the video window) I recommend also watching the lectures of Netanyahu and Peres, they seem to be really enthusiastic about the matter -
http://www.presidentconf.org.il/en
3. Parallel article from YNet
http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3793570,00.html
Ray is a smart guy with interesting concepts, but also a hopeless optimist - this is in his heart. Why will we leave the planet for so long? What will happen when the Chinese start consuming like Westerners? His concepts are interesting but build on the fact that the world will continue to progress.
Thanks for your attention, this is probably the correct response.
Nano stretcher software that treats Parkinson's patients ???
Nano computer software? Maybe a nano future with Terra Ego.
Who is this jerk? Talks like Stellan.
Something seems wrong to me in the article: "Today, solar energy supplies half of the world's consumption. In 16 years, solar energy will be able to supply 100% of the world's electricity consumption."
I think he meant to say half a percent of world consumption.
wow I wish By and large, his analyzes seem logical to me, without referring to the accuracy in time