This is what Prof. Arnon Sofer, head of the Chaikin Chair of Geostrategy at Haifa University, claims in a new document he authored together with Prof. Michael Burt from the Technion. According to him, the ever-increasing plight of the territory could degrade it to the rank of a third world country"
"The State of Israel is getting very close to the limit of its carrying capacity and the ever-increasing territorial distress may degrade it to the rank of a third world country", so warns Prof. Arnon Sofer in a new document published by the Chaikin Chair of Geo-Strategy at the University of Haifa, "The Blue Avenue Maritime Option". Prof. Sofer's solution: invest now, ahead of time in the establishment of artificial islands.
The State of Israel is one of the most densely populated countries in the Western world, a phenomenon that stands out mainly on the coastal plain, centered on the city of Tel Aviv-Jaffa. Already today, two thirds of Israel's population live on the waters of the Mediterranean Sea.
From the new document, which Prof. Sofer publishes together with Prof. Michael Bort who previously served as Dean of the Faculty of Architecture at the Technion, it becomes clear that this density is only going to increase in the coming years. The current density of 357 people per square meter is expected to reach 450 people per square meter in about 20 years, when Israel's population is expected to reach 11 million people in 2034. According to Prof. Sofer, this increase will require a significant increase in the transportation systems, in the systems for water desalination, in power plants and electricity transmission and more.
The meaning of these needs is additional areas, which will further increase the area shortage.
"In a crowded country, they fight for every piece of empty land and land prices go up and down. The lack of land will lead to overexploitation of the land, while neglecting environmental development and will lead to the creation of cities without green lungs. A crowded country is a violent country degenerating into a third world, if the State of Israel continues this trend, the strong youth will continue to leave it and Jewish youth from the Diaspora will not want to live there," he said.
According to Prof. Sofer, the possible and effective solution is the establishment of artificial islands in the sea, which in the first stage will be an area for infrastructure facilities such as airports, water desalination facilities, power plants, ports, etc. In recent years, the idea of establishing artificial islands has been raised, but it has encountered two main claims: claims of economic unviability and claims of damage to the environment. However, in the current publication, Prof. Burt presents a series of new technologies for establishing artificial islands, which provide an answer to these two claims. One technology is based on "breathing" spongy breakwaters built from concrete adapted to withstand the corrosive conditions of seawater. A second technology is based on a modular container platform that functions as the ground of the islands and is built of reinforced concrete.
"One of the outstanding advantages of these technologies is the fact that they can be produced in an industrial-coastal plant, as floating components, and shipped and most of their contents to the final sites, which significantly reduces the loads and the wear and tear of the land transportation infrastructure. Also, the proposed solutions are very attractive both from a techno-economic point of view and from an environmental point of view.
Checking the production costs of the breakwater components in factories on the sea line, their transportation at sea and their deployment at sea after preparing the seabed as of this period reaches NIS 1,700,000 per dunam including the costs of the breakwater and the connecting bridges between the platforms. This amount is much lower than the costs of drying and development using the conventional methods known today. "The development costs for an island with an area of about 2000 dunams and more, including the breakwater areas, are about 20-10% of the value of the land offered for construction on the coastal plain today," claims Prof. Burt.
According to Prof. Sofer, there are many bodies in Israel that are involved in the issues of the beaches and the sea. Starting from many government offices, through local authorities, port authorities, green bodies to the people of the private sector, including manufacturers, importers, exporters, contractors and more." Time is very pressing, so before it is decided to start an operation to dry sections, it is necessary to prepare a coordinating national body between all the many bodies. This is an essential body to promote this innovative enterprise and at the same time to protect the beaches for future generations. Such a dramatic move will shock all systems. Many parties will benefit from the drying up of the sea and many will lose their small part, but the State of Israel will benefit from it" Prof. Sofer concluded.
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It's a shame that you talk without hearing what a person has to say:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cV2aJbAho98
The main thing is that professors like him exacerbate the plight of the territory even more when they call on the left and the right to give the Arabs the east of the country the south.
Well, another apocalyptic. If the establishment of islands excites him so much that he will be honored and get the money to build such an island himself.
Israel has huge areas in the Negev, the Golan Heights, the Jordan Valley, Judea and Samaria and much more. There is no lack of living space and the population has already begun to disperse better towards the periphery, a trend that will continue to grow with the construction of the railway lines and the improvement of other infrastructures. The peripheral cities are approaching the size where they become almost independent in terms of jobs and will become a center that will allow more residents to move to their satellite settlements.
The apocalypse refuses to come and the apocalypticists refuse to learn from their mistakes over and over and over and over and over.
1. Let's not forget that Professor Arnon Sofer was the father of the learned Torah of the apocalyptic demographic vision of the Jews in the State of Israel... respect him and... suspect him...
2. Regarding the artificial islands solution, was a possible rise in the sea level as a result of global warming taken into account???
There are tested solutions that have already proven themselves in the world. Anyone who visits European cities immediately discovers that the big cities are built of blocks of 7-8 story houses and there are no spaces between the houses that make up the block. According to the laws of the British mandate, the houses in Tel Aviv were built to a maximum height of 4 stories, with the building line being 2.5 meters from the edge of the lot. That means 5 meters of unbuilt and wasted space between house to house. In Europe, cities were built according to a much more sophisticated model. In Milan, for example, the houses were built to a height of 7-8 stories in a square or rectangular block, with no space between the buildings, the entrances to the houses are from the front of the street (and not from the side), the block creates a square of empty space in its heart that allows for balconies and fresh air, and underneath it is built a huge covered parking basement and above it a garden with a lot games
With an easy calculation, it can be understood that such a city plan will allow double occupancy of residents in the city of Tel Aviv, with a generous solution for parking lots and playgrounds and most importantly without the need for huge investments in infrastructure!
And how to carry out such a revolution when the city is already built? The city should not be shaved in one fell swoop as the mayor of Paris, Osman, did after the great fire. The solution for implementation is conditional on the construction of one tall tower, next to the block that is to be rebuilt, move all the residents of the adjacent block to it, destroy the entire evacuated block and rebuild it according to the new design and standard. Residents who wish will be able to return to the new project according to a rights key that will be defined in advance. Doubling the built area will benefit all those involved in the project with an enormous value that will cover all costs, improve the housing quality of the original tenants and leave a huge profit in the coffers.
Avi - you are right about the transportation, in my opinion. But, maybe the solution is to bring the work to the periphery? The problem with improving transportation is that it creates a snowball. It is more convenient to get to the city, so more businesses are established in the city and more people travel to the city. Therefore - roads are not a good solution. Maybe a train is a good solution... but not the Israel train 🙂
The whole problem in Israel is transportation.
If they solve the transportation problem, maybe more people will move to the outskirts and it will turn out that there is a lot of empty space there.
Finally there is someone who knows and publishes the truth about the population explosion,
As in the world in general and even more so in Israel, an explosion that will cause an explosion.
In the wider world, planners know that for ventures to succeed
It is necessary to conduct a survey on the carrying capacity of the area,
A survey that will check how many people can use or live in the project
without causing damage to the environment, damage that would harm the project,
In Israel, the concept of carrying capacity is not recognized or, at best, recognized only as a theory.
This is how settlements and development projects are established whose destructive future is clear and known
Under the stupid slogan that hasn't yet been a phlegm miracle - we'll cover you with concrete and cement,
Those whose eyes are in their heads, those who know a little arithmetic will understand that the only solution is
Stopping the explosion whether by education or any other way,
The danger of deteriorating into the status of a third world country is already here
Only harsh and extreme measures will moderate and keep the trouble away.
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To the Romans, and to all those who want to destroy the Negev and the Galilee. I am an extreme rightist and I believe in the vision of a complete Land of Israel including two banks of the Jordan and the northern border of the Euphrates bank and the southern border of the Nile bank. But the question is not only where to settle but how. The human race has taken too much from nature. And he should be reduced to the areas he has already destroyed. Shepherding is nature's number one enemy and it needs to go away. The cultivated areas need to change from owner-occupied agriculture to irrigated agriculture with the use of genetically modified products and other agricultural technologies in order to increase the produce per unit of area and of course to expel hostile elements from the territories of the Land of Israel so that the settlers do not feel that they must scar the entire Yosh with concrete because otherwise the Arabs will take over the surface
Israel needs to develop the Negev and the Galilee!
What happened? Each Gush Dan block is 4-story buildings, add another floor to each building and you have another Gush Dan block in terms of real estate..
Point, this situation will make the rich buy all the areas and then sell/rent them for much more expensive.. a kind of land cartel...
This is usually what happens in an unchecked capitalist policy...
What an exaggeration hahahahaha more than the number of letters of God I wrote right now, no one living now will get to see it because the Negev is still desolate and the north is still concentrated.
Somehow it always ends up in the kibbutzim...
The kibbutzim do not own land for construction, but grow agricultural produce on it.
If you take the agricultural land from them and turn it into land intended for residential construction you will have to import everything.
Then of course you will start a protest because fruits and vegetables will cost 10 times what they cost today.
In the end, this country is capable of holding 20 million people if they build new cities in the south and north. The problem is that they will also have to move jobs from the center to the south and north.
The land shortage is caused by mafia elements who control the supply of land in the country. The administrator, KKL-Junk, kibbutzim and all kinds of other anti-democratic creatures, who take care of the market is not free, not egalitarian, not capitalist, and not democratic.
The solution is to dismantle all these authorities and release land to anyone who wants it, freely
Great idea! In my opinion, this is the real solution to the geographic and demographic problem in the State of Israel, including the conflict with the Palestinians. As soon as there is more space here, all this conflict will disappear.
What will deteriorate the country is not the land shortage!
This very discussion of the predicament of the territory reminds me of the kingdom of Lilliput.
Also in the kingdom of Lilliput there was a very difficult problem that was about to destroy the country.
That is :
Should the egg be hatched from the sharp side or rather from the pitcher side?
I never understood the enthusiasm to buy an apartment on the fifth floor next to the mall when the view from the balcony is the wall of the neighboring building. There is everything near the house: a busy road, noise, dirt, a commercial center and a polluting industrial area... the only thing that is not there is green nature, childhood memories, a spring, spring blossoms, shepherds, clean air and the smell of freedom.
Everything Judea and Samaria has to offer
Maybe we'll dry up the sick lake again instead of building an artificial island. We already have experience in wastage on a monumental project that failed, if we dry up the Hula lake again, at least we will use that experience so that the wastage will be more economical.
There is no need to dry islands. There are reserve areas that will be enough for double the population (although it is not clear how we will eat the double population). If areas adjacent to the center are filled, it will be economically worthwhile to build on areas less adjacent to the center.
The most effective investment, although large, is an improvement in transportation. Improvement in transportation means that areas far from the center become close to it thanks to improved transportation.
The Negev and the Galilee are free. All that is needed is public transportation at a speed of 200 km/h and government benefits such as those that the government has only been encouraging in recent years: 10% income tax, a grant for every high-tech company at the rate of 40% of the employee's salary for a period of 5 years for every employer that opens a branch from Beer Sheva and beyond, the cities of the Bedim , affordable housing.
We want to see Israeli flags in the Negev and the Galilee.
Regarding cities - the technological challenge is interesting, it was also implemented in Bahrain/Qatar, but such cities sank throughout history within a few hundred years.
Israel is going to Gaza
Better run while you can
The carrying capacity is bad because the planning is bad. There is no normal public transportation or nationwide retirement jobs, so all the burden is on Tel Aviv and its surroundings. Surveys reveal huge percentages of ghost apartments in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, etc., of buyers who do not live in Israel at all and are not renters. In Tel Aviv, most of the construction in recent years is of huge luxury apartments at a price of 5 million or more, which are usually united with each other to create a huge housing space that could house any apartments of the desired size for singles and couples without children.
In the meantime, there is also too much low-rise construction, too many suburbs cut off from public transportation instead of clearing and construction in the center, and full of parking spaces instead of underground parking lots.
No word on the Negev?! Mr. Professor.
In Israel this thing can happen 100 years after the establishment of a subway in Tel Aviv. So the professor is nothing more than a writer from DVB.