This is according to a study by the researchers of the Biological Institute who studied the rate of spread of the corona in the community, and it turned out that it increased from R0=0.5 to 2.18, which means that each patient infects more than 2 other people, which brings about an exponential and uncontrolled spread
Israel contained the spread of the corona virus, and then the holiday of Purim came. This is according to a study by the researchers of the biological institute, including the director general of the institute, who studied the rate of spread of the corona virus in the community, and it turned out that it increased from R0=0.5 to 2.14, meaning that each patient infects more than 2 other people, or in other words a steep increase. In other words, the decision of large parts of the ultra-orthodox public to ignore instructions.
In a study submitted for publication and written by Eyal Fatal, Eitan Hirsch and the director of the institute Shmuel Shapira. The researchers developed a model of the dynamics of the spread of epidemics and used the epidemiological investigations conducted by the Ministry of Health, and it became clear to them, as the article shows, that the results are similar.
The researchers separated the data related to patients who were infected abroad from those who were infected in the community. It turns out that for three weeks the State of Israel was in a controlled epidemic situation both according to the model and according to the epidemiological analysis. The negative change in the trend occurred as a result of the Purim parties. Although the Eid al-Adha celebrations throughout the country were canceled, many attended private parties in a closed space, which greatly increased the number of patients. In particular, a mass infection took place among the ultra-Orthodox population living in densely populated areas. Some of them, by the way, refused to listen to the instructions for a long time. Rabbi Haim Kanievsky forbade the cancellation of Torah study. Even in certain Hasidims and in particular Chabad (as can be seen in the spread in Brooklyn) the token did not fall, and they held large celebrations on Purim.
background:
"Since its emergence, the impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health challenge appears to be the most severe with regard to respiratory viruses since the H1N1 influenza pandemic of 1918 (the Spanish flu). In the absence of an effective vaccine or biomedical treatment, the basic rules of public health measures have not changed, namely social distancing and personal hygiene. "
"In this study we present the results of the analysis of the epidemiological data and models of the first month since the beginning of the outbreak in Israel. The data analyzed in this study were obtained from the epidemiological investigation reports published by the Ministry of Health. In addition to data analysis, we present an extended deterministic cell model and simulations of disease outbreak scenarios that highlight quarantine and isolation policies considering their effectiveness.”
The research findings
We analyze and observe a sudden change from a controlled epidemic regime (effective reproduction number R_0 on the order of half) to an exponential growth regime (R_0 = 2.18). In light of the policy makers' decisions and actual public behavior. We discuss below three different model scenarios of quarantine efficiency: high efficiency, medium efficiency and low efficiency.
Conclusions:
The first lesson in Israel is that there is no possibility of compromising on the directive of social distancing. Even before the start of the epidemic in Israel, early but determined decisions were made by policy makers to cancel flights from areas affected by Covid-19 and limit public gatherings. These indices lowered the value of the effective reproductive number (R_0) effectively in the first two weeks. Our analysis shows that one particular holiday in Israel, the Purim holiday, shifted the curve of occurrence from a controlled regime to an exponential growth regime. This result indicates that even a brief lapse in public response can dramatically affect public health during epidemic outbreaks.
At the same time, the spokesperson of the Prime Minister's Office reported yesterday that Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke with the director of the Institute for Biological Research Prof. Shmuel Shapira and heard from him updates on the progress in the institute's research and development efforts on the topic of pre-vaccination and antibodies.
The director of the institute, Prof. Shapira, noted that significant progress has been made in pre-vaccination planning and preparations are now being made for a model to begin animal testing.
