Yesterday, the launch of an unmanned supply spacecraft to the space station failed. The Falcon 9 launch vehicle and the Dragon supply spacecraft are both made by SpaceX, and this is the first complete failure after 18 successful launches.
It's always sad when a launch fails, especially when you watch it in real time. It reminds that in reality there is no perfection, and success cannot be guaranteed, although it is not very popular to say so.
Missile technology is an extremely complex business. The very fact that the absolute majority of the launches are successful, is in itself an exemplary sign of the technological level of humanity. But complex systems also contain countless possible failure scenarios, which designers struggle to minimize and prevent. Despite this, it is clear that the chance of failure is greater than zero. The planners try to make sure that there is no chance of a failure that would lead to the loss of a mission, but it is not possible to identify in advance the entire range of possibilities and therefore the loss of a mission will happen at some stage due to a combination of events that no one could have imagined in advance, or due to human errors or missing tests.
Hence the fact that the Falcon-9 has not yet failed until this week She is the anomaly. A new launcher that manages to take off 18 times without failures is not a common thing.
What just happened?
Yesterday's mission was called CRS07, a commercial supply spacecraft that was supposed to fly to the International Space Station with about 2 tons of equipment, supplies, experiments, satellites and various other facilities. The supplies were packed in a Dragon-type spacecraft that was housed at the top of the launcher. The mission was commissioned by NASA, which does not own its own supply spacecraft.
The launch was scheduled for 10:21 a.m. at the Cape Canaveral launch site in Florida (17:21 p.m. in Israel) and the weather was excellent.
SpaceX's robotic lander was placed in the Atlantic Ocean to receive the first stage of the launcher, which was supposed to try on the third to land on it, and everything was ready for launch.
The launch was carried out exactly on time, and the Falcon-9 rose to a height of over 30 kilometers easily and without any problems.
Then, a little over two minutes after launch, the missile disappeared in a white cloud and pieces of metal scattered and fell everywhere.
The little that is known is that there was an indication of abnormal pressure in the liquid oxygen tank in the upper stage of the launcher. This happened before the first stage had completed its operation, about a minute after the missile had experienced the most severe aerodynamic stresses. Did the tank explode? Probably so, that's how it looks in the video (NASA reported that the launch site did not transmit a self-destruct command, Another source claims that it was broadcast but too late). But the reasons are still unknown and the internal investigation at SpaceX will probably continue for some time.
direct damage
The immediate damage is almost two tons of cargo lost. The list of contents includes food and side dishes for the crew staying at the space station, spare parts, work tools, parts to upgrade the space station's systems, dozens of different scientific experiments, including student experiments, communication equipment, photography equipment, one space suit, and one of two new adapters that will allow manned spacecraft future to dock at the station themselves (without the need for capture using the robotic arm that is controlled from the station).
Damage to the space station
Apparently the space station lost the shipment, which is not bad because there are enough supply reserves.
But it has actually lost three shipments in the last eight months: the Cygnus spacecraft in late October 2014 that exploded due to a malfunction in the Antares launcher engines, the Progress spacecraft that went into an uncontrolled spin after entering orbit in late April 2015, and now the Dragon spacecraft.
This means that three of the four existing cargo carriers for the space station have suffered severe malfunctions recently. The only one that remains unblemished is the Japanese Conotori, whose next mission is this August, so I'm guessing that heavy pressure is expected on those involved in its launch and operation.
You can read about the supply spacecraft at this link.
Since the establishment of the International Space Station in 1998, there has not been such a sequence of failures in the supply spacecraft. Although they are independent of each other, if there are more such misses this year, then it will have implications for the team that houses it. In the meantime they don't need to start conserving water and food, and their supplies can last at least until October. Also, the next shipment is planned for this Friday in the form of a Progress spaceship that will be launched from Kazakhstan, and we hope it arrives safely.
There is probably also secondary damage; The Dragon spacecraft is unique in that it is the only one of the supply spacecraft capable of returning equipment from the space station to the ground. Currently in the space station there are about 700 kg of scientific experiments and other items waiting for the Dragon to take them down from space, and in the meantime they take up valuable space. The next dragon is listed for the beginning of September, but it is still difficult to estimate if it will happen on the planned date.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2K030HRTutU
future impact
There are two main consequences for the future - near and far. Let's start from afar. SpaceX is the leading company among the companies that develop commercial manned aircraft for space. The goal is to start flying astronauts as early as 2017. SpaceX is building a Falcon-9 launcher for that purpose.
I believe the impact will be minor. The manned Dragon is not yet ready for launch, but even if this launch was with a manned cell, the autonomous extraction system would likely be sufficient to extract the cell from the exploding launcher.
The docking adapter for manned spacecraft that exploded with the Dragon is also not an irreplaceable loss. It was one of two already made, and apparently there is still plenty of time to make a replacement adapter.
In the near future, SpaceX has a problem. Until now, it has been a cheap and reliable shipping provider, which can barely keep up with the number of customers interested in its services. In just the coming year, it was supposed to provide four more commercial launches, a NASA scientific mission launch, two supply deliveries to the space station and one Falcon-Heavy experiment, which actually consists of the same hardware as the Falcon-9. In 2016, no less than 20 commercial Falcon-9 launches are registered (Amos-6 of Space-Communications is one of them) and other missions for NASA, the American Air Force and the space station. That's a huge capacity! (מקור)
Since no more Falcon-9 will be launched until the circumstances of the malfunction are clarified and dealt with, disruptions to the launch queue are expected. The postponement will not be linear because some launches are more urgent than others, and there are customers who pay more than others. The lawyers are expected to have quite a workload.
In conclusion
Launch failures will continue to happen. If they are able to learn from the failures then we are expected, as has happened several times in the past, for a gradual increase in their reliability. But just as there are still planes that crash despite decades of experience in commercial air transport, it is not possible to completely get rid of the failures, but only to reduce them as much as possible.
The same will happen in the world of missiles. We are still only at the beginning of the space age. Today's situation, where every week there is at least one launch, is relatively new. To start flying people en masse they will have to further improve the reliability of the launches, and even then disasters will still happen.
But just as in the world of civil aviation we are all aware of the disasters that happen from time to time, and are still willing to pay for a flight with such frivolity that at any given moment there are on average no less than half a million people in the air (!), so it will also happen in the world of space during the next decades, if we just keep trying.
5 תגובות
Kobi, it seems to me that you live a bit in the movie.
First of all I'm sure they do computer simulations and in the simulations it probably works.
Secondly, there is no chance in the world that simulators of launches will be accurate at the level of reality, there are so many influential factors inside the missile and outside the missile that can have an effect and it is almost impossible to enter the data of everyone including human errors.
It is better to invest the money in computer simulators, which can calculate loads and pressures during launch, and point out possible faults, than to learn from faults.
And once you enter the correct data, a launch in the simulator was like a real launch.