A new report published by the United Nations sends us on a journey in time * to a time when people live to the age of one hundred, most of the world's inhabitants are old, and only a minority of them are children * in Russia, Italy and Spain only a small percentage of the population remains * and in Africa a quarter of the planet's inhabitants live * the future, as you have not imagined
concentration of sources
The UN population experts usually publish forecasts several decades ahead, and rarely even 150 years ahead. This week, for the first time, they publish scenarios for the more distant future: the year 2300. According to one of the scenarios, which assumes that the fertility rate will drop to two children per woman and stabilize, the population of the earth will increase by half and reach nine billion people. In Israel, the population will number 9.3 million people (not including the territories), while 13.4 million people will live in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
The most threatening scenario, created for demonstration purposes only, predicts that if today's fertility trends do not change, the Earth's population will reach 150 billion in 244 years (and 134 trillion in 2300). The human race will not be able to sustain itself under these conditions, and therefore this scenario does not occupy a central place in the UN report.
The experts' assessments are not based on socio-economic analysis; They have no ability to analyze these long-term trends. They are based on different scenarios of fertility trends, including the scenario of stabilization of fertility at two children per woman - which is defined as a middle scenario.
This scenario is based on a trend that already exists in many developing countries, such as Brazil and Indonesia, where a policy of reducing birth rates and family planning has been implemented. In these countries there is a clear trend of decreasing fertility - from six children per woman a few decades ago, to about three children. The global average is 2.85 children per woman. According to the middle scenario, the Earth's population will decrease from 9.2 billion in 2075 to 8.3 billion in 2175 - and then increase again, due to the increase in life expectancy.
However, even in these assumptions there is a large degree of uncertainty. The report is a kind of statistical exercise designed to indicate various possibilities, but it does not determine the chance of their realization. The importance of the predictions is that they illustrate that if the efforts to lower productivity in the developing countries continue, it will be possible to stabilize the population of the earth and prevent wars and heavy pressures on natural resources.
The experts themselves point out that even a small change up or down in the scenario will dramatically affect the numbers. If, for example, the world fertility rate in 300 years will be 2.35 children per woman, the world population will number 36.4 billion people. In that case, Israel will number 12 million people in 2050 and 36 million in 2300.
Another basic premise of the UN experts is that life expectancy will increase consistently from 2050 onwards. Half of the world's population in 2300 will be under the age of 50 - compared to 26 today - and people over the age of 80 will make up 17% of the Earth's population. In Japan, the average life expectancy of women will reach 108. The lowest life expectancy will be in Liberia, where women will live to the age of 88. In Israel of 2300, the life expectancy of women will reach 97.
Some things will not change even in 300 years: China and India will continue to be the most populated countries. According to the middle scenario, close to 1.4 billion people will live in India, and 1.28 billion will live in China. The third largest country will be the USA, where 493 million people will live. African residents will make up a quarter of the total population and European residents only 7% - compared to 12% today.
* * * * * * * *
Time: 2300. Place: Earth. In Japan people live to 108. In Africa population explosion. In Russia, Italy and Spain there are almost no residents left. Sound weird? Unacceptable? This is not how the UN thinks. A new report prepared by the Population Department of the United Nations shows that the world's population - which grew almost fourfold in the 20th century - will grow much more slowly. In the next 300 years, the earth's population will increase by only 2.7 billion people - from 6.3 billion to 9 billion.
* Increase in life expectancy
The forecast for the next 300 years is the most far-reaching that the UN has ever made. Presenting such a forecast stems from the need to provide policy makers dealing with various issues - such as climate change, agricultural production and migration - a picture of the future world population. Because of increased life expectancy, the world's population will be much older. By the year 2300, the average lifespan will increase by 33 years - from 26 years today to 59 years. This means that the number of people over the age of 60 will be 38 percent of the population, compared to only ten percent today, while the 80-year-olds will be 17 percent of the population, compared to a single percent today.
In the year 2300, the inhabitants of the rich countries will live many more years. In America, Sweden and Japan the life expectancy will be about 100 years on average, and in Japan it will reach 108 years. In China, on the other hand, life expectancy will only reach 85 years.
"In the future we will live to the age of 150," says Dr. David Passig, a futurist and researcher at Bar-Ilan University, "the food we eat and the medicines we use have greatly improved our state of health. Those who have reached the age of 30 today will most likely not die at the age of 70, but at the age of 90."
Thanks to the inventions that are already being tested, the drugs in the future will be tailored personally to each patient. In this way, they will meet the specific needs of each person, and will not provide an "average" and less effective response. "There are currently six drugs to treat a heart attack," explains Dr. Pasig, "the doctor uses the 'trial and error' method, starts with one drug, and checks how the patient reacts. In the future, the medicine will be given in the most personal way, according to the patient's needs and in accordance with genetic data and other variables that the doctor will take into account. Their effectiveness as a means of treatment will be much greater."
* Two children per family
The report is based on the assumption that the trend of reducing the birth rate will continue, and that each family will have an average of only two children. However, if the residents of the developing countries do not join the mainstream, and continue to give birth to a large number of children, the world's population may reach 244 million people in 2150, and the unimaginable number of 134 trillion people in 2300. Every small change in the birth rate - leads A huge change in the number of people in the world. Today, even in countries such as Iran, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Thailand, the norm according to which each family has two children on average is accepted. According to the report, the family unit in Europe, Japan, Australia and Canada is too small. If the European trend continues, according to which each family has an average of 1.4 children, the population of Europe will decrease by no less than 75 percent. This means that for every 1,000 people living in Europe today, only 2300 people will live in the year 232. In Russia, Italy and Spain, the population will be reduced to one percent of that which inhabits them today. The population of Germany could shrink to the size of the population of Berlin today.
While the population of Europe will dwindle, the population of Africa will grow to alarming proportions - 2.3 billion people, about a quarter of the world's population. All this on the condition that the treatment of the AIDS disease - which destroys many spaces in African countries - will be expanded and improved.
In Latin America and the Caribbean countries, the size of the population will not change. In Asian countries, whose inhabitants are currently 61 percent of the world's population, there will be a reduction in the number of inhabitants. In the year 2300, the inhabitants of the continent will be only 55 percent of the world's population.
Hamsins and floods
You don't have to wait 300 years to see significant changes in the climate. Already in the next 100 years, revolutions are expected, mainly because of gases from industry and means of transportation. The forecasts speak of a warming of between 1.5 and six degrees, with which the floods and rains will increase (and all this without mentioning the flooding of populated areas). "It is estimated that the amount of precipitation will increase by ten percent on average - but evaporation will be faster because of the heat, and the water balance will be affected," says Dr. Ilan Seter from the research department of the meteorological service. Summers will be hotter than today. "In recent years, it is no longer possible to get through the summer nights in Israel without air conditioners, which was not the case two or three decades ago, and the situation will only get worse."
The World Health Organization states that the health of millions will be affected as a result of climate change, and especially as a result of global warming. According to the report, the diseases that will spread more strongly, as a result of the warming, are diseases carried by insects.
According to the experts, even a very small warming, of only a few degrees, could lead to the infection of millions of people with the malaria bacterium. According to them, the number of people infected with malaria will double in countries where there are patients with the disease.
The report even warns of the outbreak of malaria in countries where it is not currently common, such as European countries.
Kerstin Leitner, senior assistant to the director of the organization, said that "there is solid evidence that the changes in the world's climate will affect the quality of life and the health of all human beings."
The organization's experts will present the full report, which also warns against the change in the amount of rainfall in the world, at the UN conference, which will convene next week in Milan.
genetically modified food
If the predictions come true, and in 50 years the number of people in the world will double (and the number of mouths to feed), we will also have to take care of a lot of food. The products will be grown using innovative, healthier and more economical methods. "There is no doubt that mistakes and nonsense will be made on the way to this goal, but the human race has no choice," says Dr. Passig, a futurist and researcher at Bar-Ilan University. Among other things, we can expect genetic food engineering - we will eat less of the basic foods (rice, potatoes) that will be more nutritious. And the milk and meat will be leaner and contain less cholesterol. Even products from nature that are currently unused (such as different types of berries) will be put on the table after genetic improvement.
Motor on each wheel
Air pollution and the need to save fuel will give rise to private means of transportation that will combine two types of engines - a main engine and small dynamo engines on each wheel. Immediately after starting, the small and economical engines will come into operation, and the main engine will stop. "Public transportation will mainly be electric trains and those that move on magnetic pads, but there will also be a new means of transportation - public-private cars: a small vehicle (up to four passengers) that travels on a track, on a fixed route within the city. The predictions are only for another 50 years, and in very extreme cases up to 100," says Dr. David Passig.
Glass that cleans itself
Our future houses will be built from smart materials that will clean, maintain, and even repair themselves if necessary. There will be a glass-like material (but not fragile) that will clean itself. Today, every crack, break or explosion in the wall is a big headache for the home owner and the engineers, but in the future "the houses will be built from materials that are able to repair themselves. If there is a crack in the wall - a substance will be released that will 'heal' it and close the crack or fracture, in a way that reminds of the self-healing of the human body. Already today, we are actively working on developing a series of products in this direction," says Dr. David Pasig, a futurist and researcher at Bar-Ilan University. The future house will also be much more environmentally friendly, it will generate solar energy for itself and use it wisely, and the sewage and electricity systems will be computerized.
The jacket will call the police
A real revolution is expected here: no more cotton, wool and polyester, say goodbye to smart clothes. The clothes of the future will not only cover the body and create a personal image, but will function as practical accessories that will improve our lives. "We will wear clothing that will warm us in the winter and cool the body in the hot summer. He will also take care of supplementing our diet - and release nutrients (like vitamins) in areas where they are lacking. The clothes will also function as a close doctor - and will report to the medical center a change or a serious health event. On top of that, they will also be able to call for help," predicts Dr. Pasig. And of course, we must not forget the entertainment extras: radio, television and telephone in every coat and sweater.
shoot a sticky substance
Contrary to what one might expect, the weapon of the future will not kill or kill, but will be much more humane, it will only stun and paralyze. "Future measures are already being developed. The friendly weapons will be used by law enforcement agencies (police and military) to temporarily paralyze the activity capability of the enemy or the criminal they are trying to capture. The goal: taking control of him, arresting him, or in the case of fighting between armies - also taking him prisoner. Weapons are being developed that shoot sticky substances, ones that wrap the victim in a net from which he cannot escape, but the issue is in the wards because these substances may be toxic in the long term," says Dr. Passig.
Alex Doron
We will determine our future
The question of how the world will look in 300 years is not an innocent question. In practice, the future is shaped by the great confrontation between two types of globalization. One, globalization of conflict. It was created because of the migration from the hungry world to the satisfied world. This migration entails conflicts, and they could turn Europe and the United States into fields of civil wars.
At the same time there is also a positive, harmonious globalization. It owes its existence to the economic and political relations that are created between the countries, and which take into account the interests of the poor world. This type of globalization helps to moderate and weaken the potential for destruction.
The events of September 11 are an example of the globalization of conflict. In contrast, the abolition of the separate European countries and their inclusion in the European Union, shows the option of harmonious globalization. Therefore, the question of how the world will look in 300 years, is actually a result of our choice, and depends only on it.
Prof. Danny Gutwin
Miriam Fuchs and Alex Doron, Maariv and Zafarir Rinat, Haaretz
