Even if only a fraction of the billions of dollars spent annually on space missions finds its way into the private sector, it will provide solid orders for commercial companies.
The space technology market - in particular transportation - will grow in two dimensions in 2005. First, there is a likelihood that there will be an acceleration of the shift from the government sector to the private sector, when public space agencies will be under pressure to open the market to launch vehicles and services. According to a report with the title: This is what a new study conducted by the accounting and consulting firm Deloitte, on trends in technology for 2005, states.
In the report, Deloitte people write that NASA, for example, has invited commercial companies to provide designs, cost estimates and working prototypes for the next generation space shuttle and spacecrafts that will fly to the moon and even to Mars. This step alone will increase competition in the space business.
At the same time, a long list of new countries are expected to enter the space race in earnest. China and India in particular will invest heavy sums of money in the development of launch vehicles, support systems and other technologies. The two countries will initially develop technology for missions around the Earth, but with a long-term view towards landing on the moon.
And since the space agencies in these two countries are relatively new and small in size, they will rely on the private sector to achieve their goals.
These two developments, occurring simultaneously, mark the first step towards private sector control of private launches and a new era of innovation and discovery. The efficiency inherent in the competitive market will help direct tax money to practical, fast and long-term innovation that will not only create a space market that is lighter and less heavy than it is today, but will also lead to the development of new technologies that can improve life on Earth.
Deloitte's bottom line:
Moving towards the final frontier. Even if only a fraction of the $20 billion a year spent on space missions finds its way into the private sector, it will provide solid orders for commercial companies. A combination of the developments in Asia and the continued growth of space exploration in Europe, the space business will soon generate good returns for the private sector.
Nevertheless, companies thinking about entering the space market should be careful. The aerospace industry is dominated by a few large, powerful and connected companies. These companies will defend their territory with enthusiasm. The safest way to enter this market is through alliances - either with large companies, or with groups of small companies that can combine forces to provide a total solution. Either way, if the process is carried out carefully, the opportunity for private sector companies in space is enormous.
