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The Apollo program: what would have happened if?

The Apollo program as an expression of the space race and the Cold War - what would have happened if Kennedy had not been assassinated, and the director of the Soviet space program had not died unexpectedly leaving a pale heir in terms of political influence. Summary of Daganit Pikovsky's lecture from Uni' Tel Aviv at a conference held at the Fisher Institute on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the moon landing

Apollo 11 astronauts in isolation after their return. Greetings from the Soviet Union and the communist bloc
Apollo 11 astronauts in isolation after their return. Greetings from the Soviet Union and the communist bloc

The Apollo program was born out of a heavy American fear of losing its position as a superpower in the struggle with the USSR, and out of President Kennedy's position of weakness at the beginning of his career. The Apollo program was an American national symbol no less than a diplomatic and strategic tool in the Cold War. With the end of the Apollo program, in the absence of a political incentive, NASA lost a significant part of its status and identity and in fact since then it has been looking for its way.

This is how Daganit Paikovsky, a doctoral student at the Tel Aviv Workshop for Science, Technology and Security within the School of Government and Policy at Tel Aviv University and a regular guest at the Fisher Institute, explains at an evening commemorating the 40th anniversary of the moon landing, held by the Fisher Institute at the Air Force Base, on the 40th anniversary of the Apollo 11 landing, on the 20 July.

Pikowski described the development of the space race and its consequences, and focused on several interesting points - that there were signs that Kennedy began to withdraw from his commitment to the plan to fly to the moon before his death and only because of his assassination did the project become a commemorative project in his memory. And another question, did the Russians really try to reach the moon or did the Americans compete with themselves, did the Russian space program lose its way after the death of its founder, Sergey Korolev?

"Scientific development is a sign of the state's degree of development and has consequences for its power. The space and nuclear programs of the superpowers had a contribution to this recognition. The Apollo 11 landing was the culmination of a process that began with the atomic bombs, and continued with the launch of the first Sputnik and the first man to fly into space (Yuri Gagarin). National investment in space programs has become a status symbol, a challenge to the laws of nature, the fulfillment of a universal dream to discover new worlds and search for life on other worlds. In the late XNUMXs and early XNUMXs, many countries established national research bodies in the field of space (although in most cases not yet agencies). The space became a focus for a political struggle - a struggle for the attention and support of the international community for claims of ideological superiority and power. A convention developed according to which activity in space is a sign of power, the ability to reach heights and an ideological victory."

"In addition, a strategy was created to balance international collaborations and limiting the spread of technology alongside public competition for achievements in space. Among the CIA documents is a document from early 1965 that attempts to analyze the situation and predict who will be the next country to develop a space launch capability. Until then, only the USA and the Soviet Union achieved the ability to fly into space. The candidates were France, Japan or China, and they estimated that it would be France and they were right, it even happened that year - in October 1965. China and Japan took another 5 years to 10. The superpowers did not fight each other, but channeled the wars into side neighborhoods and we also suffered from it, but instead they Focus on scientific competition. The space has a large dimension of visibility and also excites the masses. The conquest of outer space went on in the XNUMXs and XNUMXs as a substitute for war."

But despite what is believed, the initiative for the space race was not created by politicians, although political interests pushed forward. The idea comes from below from the scientists - in the USSR it was Sergei Korolov - the head of the missile program who called Khrushchev in the summer of 1956 and convinced him to invest in the project. Khrushchev is enthusiastic and believed that this would bring an unusual achievement and supports this thing but did not understand the meaning until the end. He realized this after seeing the shock in the USA following the launch of the first Sputnik and demanded from Korolov a second satellite by the day of the revolution (in less than a month). Korolev manages to bring him this achievement as well. In response, the US, with the help of Werner von Braun, comes up with the idea of ​​launching a satellite and reaching the moon, and the political echelon eventually adopts the decisions. However, the scientific achievements of the space race were only a by-product of the political achievements.

According to Paikovsky, the strategic assumption behind the race to space was that the power that controls space will control the world - like the powers that controlled the sea before. The superpowers each claimed superiority over the other for greater power and the right to lead the world and the space race was a means of influencing the other countries to legitimize this demand. The space achievements were part of propaganda conducted by the superpowers for two target audiences - domestic - and friendly countries and rival countries. Each of the powers used its space capability to cooperate with friendly countries and with countries from the opposing camp to control the spread of technology. National space programs with the help of NASA were a substitute for the nuclear programs of those countries. However, access to space remains in the hands of a handful of countries that have formed an exclusive club. The Soviet Union founded a number of organizations such as Inter Cosmos and Inter Sputnik that collaborated with the Warsaw Pact and other countries - mainly in the development of components for satellites when the US allowed its partners to launch satellites on top of its rockets. The Russians were the first to open the spaceships to foreign cosmonauts - from the Czech Republic and even from the West when they launched a French astronaut. Beyond that, there were initiatives for cooperation between the powers, although they were limited.

Another motive behind the American collaborations was the prevention of the proliferation of nuclear technologies. The two superpowers wanted to prevent a wide spread of the technology, so the cooperation was limited to scientific projects in space exploration and not to practical matters, certainly not to matters concerning security. Apart from close cooperation between the USA and the UK. Only before the end of the sixties did the Americans begin to cooperate with Japan in the field of launches.

At first they did not look at the space in terms of race, prestige and national pride. The position of the Eisenhower administration emphasized that the goal in the space race was scientific. He did not see importance in the political and symbolic aspect but in the development of secret photography satellites (as it turned out in retrospect from documents that were revealed only many years later). The change came from the success of the USSR with Sputnik and then it was forced to change direction and thus NASA was established in 1958. The gap between the United States and the Soviet Union in other areas led to political changes that enabled the election of Kennedy to the presidency. He wanted to take advantage of the fact to get closer to the Soviet Union, but the strengthening of the Russians forced him to change direction. After the launch of Yuri Gagarin on April 12, 1961, Kennedy accepted the recommendation of his advisers to make the USA the leading power in space in order to prevail over the Soviet Union. The initiative was the head of NASA James Webb and the Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara. Kennedy adopted the position of his advisors and announced that the US would land on the moon. Kennedy had only political ambitions in space exploration. He was determined to restore the position of the US and his own. The US investment graph in the field of space showed that most of the investments in the XNUMXs were in NASA and in the XNUMXs, and today they are directed mainly to the Ministry of Defense, whose space budget is several times larger than NASA's.

Shortly before he was assassinated, Kennedy began to show signs of retreating from his original concept after his position strengthened and talks began with the USSR. He also sees that the Apollo program consumes enormous resources and on September 20, 1963, Kennedy offers the Russians cooperation on the way to the moon. The Russians refused. Khrushchev's son, who was an engineer in the Soviet space program said that later they feared that their true technological weakness would be revealed.

Did Kennedy back down from his announcement of a race to the moon? Pikovsky asks. "In November 1963 - Kennedy was assassinated. The question is what would have happened if. Would we still be investing the same amounts and at the same rate? not so clear. The Apollo program actually became a commemorative program in Kennedy's memory. Shortly after Apollo 11 landed on the moon an unknown person placed a note on the grave of Kennedy - Mr. President - the eagle landed. The reactions to the Apollo 11 landing on the moon were different, this time the world was not stunned. The publicity of the project brought congratulations and shouts of joy, also from the Soviet Union and many countries behind the Iron Curtain. Only in China and Vietnam where the US was stuck in the mud there and also in North Korea were there no reports at all about the landing.

After the landing the rhetoric changed and there is more emphasis on cooperation than on struggle. Throughout the seventies there were collaborations, such as Apollo-Soyuz in 1975 and the famous handshake in space.

Was there really a race here? For many years the Soviets tried to claim that they did not try to compete at all and therefore they did not lose when the Americans arrived. In recent years, archives have been uncovered and evidence has been revealed that this troubled the Soviet scientists. There was a Soviet decision made in secret from 1965. The efforts did not succeed because of Korolov's sudden death - in 1966. His deputy who is appointed after him does not have the same persuasiveness and the plan fades away. They try a little, it doesn't really work and the way is paved for the Americans.

More on the subject on the science website

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