The International Energy Agency, established as a group of oil companies, proposes to stop the search for new oil and gas fields and move the world centrally to clean energy
By Volker Ruben Professor of Energy Law and Global Regulation, University of Dundee. Translation: Avi Blizovsky
The International Energy Agency (IEA) was established following the oil crisis in 1973, with the aim of maintaining the stability of the international oil supply. As an independent adviser to many governments on energy policy, the IEA has the power to get member countries to release oil reserves to stabilize prices. The agency has used this power on three occasions, the most recent being in response to the disruption of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Katrina.
In last year's report, the IEA created a model for how governments, energy companies and banks can meet the Paris Agreement's goal of stopping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. By outlining a roadmap of policy recommendations, the agency also revealed how energy production worldwide could reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
The IEA is not a body that makes radical voices on climate change. In fact, the agency's ideas on reforming energy policy to meet this challenge have often been cautious and favored gradual change. That is why it was surprising when the latest report called for an immediate ban on the search for new sources of oil, coal and gas.
If relatively conservative institutions like the IEA are now calling to stop looking for new fossil fuels, it can be assumed that something big is happening in energy policy around the world.
net zero emissions
In the Energy Transition Report's most ambitious scenario, which details supply and demand trends and an unprecedented level of international cooperation, the use of coal will cease entirely by 2050. Oil demand will decrease to 72 million barrels per day by 2030. Far below its level during the 2020 coronavirus shutdowns. XNUMX.
Since the report claimed that "there is no need for new oil and gas fields", oil companies such as ExxonMobil can no longer refer to the IEA's position for the project's requirements. The report also points to the end of the "golden age of gas" that the IEA was excited about only a decade ago. Oil prices are expected to drop precipitously, from $35 per barrel in 2035 to $24 per barrel in 2050. Per capita income in vulnerable oil-producing economies like Nigeria could plunge by as much as 75%.
To compensate, the report says huge international investment will be needed to add 1,020 gigawatts of solar and wind power annually by 2030 – four times the 261 gigawatts produced in 2020. Battery capacity installed in electric vehicles will need to rise to 6,600 gigawatts in 2030, compared to about 160 gigawatts today. The recently added nuclear power capacity will add about 17 gigawatts a year by 2030, and then 24 gigawatts a year – far more than even the World Nuclear Association – the industry's international backer – expected.
All of this depends on rapid innovation to create technologies "not yet available on the market to produce rapid change on a large scale," according to the IEA report. More than half of the emission reductions expected in the report will depend on behavioral changes among the general public, including investment in new bike lanes and high-speed trains.
Global energy transition
The report indicates that the world is on the verge of an unprecedented change in national and international energy policy. This would require each country to commit to more ambitious emissions reductions than they committed to in the Paris Agreement.
The IEA was created in the hydrocarbon era when energy was mainly subject to issues of sovereignty. This made the energy field, more than many other fields, resistant to any centralizing tendency. But if the founding mission of the agency was to coordinate the actions of governments for the instability of oil supply, its conclusion that new oil and gas fields are not required suggests that the economists advising world leaders on the transition to sustainable energy may find a new desire for cooperation.
While fossil fuels exist in very concentrated areas, renewable energy, such as wind and solar, is everywhere. The utilization of these sources in the world will depend on the developing countries sharing green technology, operating electricity networks across borders and coordinating international energy markets. With this model, the IEA redefines itself as a clean energy agency, capable of controlling the process.
Some countries have already rejected the IEA's analysis and its call for cooperation. But each of them has its obligations according to international law to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement from 2015. The report simply lists a possible route for all countries to meet them.
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More of the topic in Hayadan:
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If officials from the coal, oil and gas industry decided to recommend the transition to huge investments in environmentally polluting and inefficient fields such as solar and wind (but not nuclear, for example), it is a sign and a miracle that they finally settled on a pile of NK shares from the alternative industries These and expect that the multitudes of billions of dollars will fall on them as an endless rain of alms from government investments funded by the taxpayers and from the citizens under the auspices of skyrocketing energy prices.
In these circumstances, I have no choice but to refer the readers to the book "Apocalypse Never" by Michael Shellenberger, which was recently published in Hebrew and puts things in order, and gives interesting and incredibly capitalist information about the interests of the oil and gas companies, why (and how!) they managed to close nuclear reactors that were already operating in the USA "b, and why they act specifically in favor of "renewable energy sources".
https://www.booknet.co.il/%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%A6%D7%A8%D7%99%D7%9D/%D7%90%D7%A4%D7%95%D7%A7%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%A4%D7%A1%D7%94-%D7%90%D7%A3-%D7%A4%D7%A2%D7%9D-138600010522
If conservative sources recommend banning the search for new sources of carbon energy, it means that the owners of the existing sources are starting to worry that the new ones will push them out of the market. Among the new ones: Israel, shale in Canada and gas trapped in rock in the USA. At the University of Dundee, Scotland, proximity to the North Sea oil fields makes their academic opinion suspect of patriotic local self-interest.
It is important to be precise. The Energy Agency did not call for an end to oil and gas exploration. The agency gave different scenarios on how to reach a state of zero emissions in 2050. In one of the scenarios, this can be achieved without investing in new gas and oil exploration, but in order for this scenario to take place, you need a massive investment in new technologies (some of which do not yet exist) and an extensive political initiative.
The agency issued a press release after realizing that the media was somewhat distorting what it said:
Many news reports focused on the finding that "there is no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply" in the pathway to net zero mapped out by the report. However, considerably less coverage has so far been devoted to the massive policy-driven surge in clean energy investment and energy efficiency improvements that would be required to reach that point.