German and American researchers looked at what makes people install solar panels on their homes and found that if your neighbor has panels, it's likely that you will too. Does this logic also stand the test of the Israeli bureaucracy?
By Omer Yerushalmi, Angle - a news agency for science and the environment
Israel has more From 300 Sunny days a year in Israel. This does not prevent her from producing only Less than 10 percentage of its electricity consumption from solar energy. In the coming years the situation should change. in the climate law Submitted to the Knesset by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Israel undertakes to wean itself off the production of energy from fossil fuels and switch to the production and use of renewable energies (in semi-desert Israel it is mainly solar energy production).
To make this commitment a reality, it is recommended that the decision-makers in the government become familiar with the conclusions of New and interesting research, which was published in the scientific journal Nature, and which examined what makes people install solar panels in their homes - financial considerations, concern for the future of the planet, or perhaps what their neighbor already has on the roof?
Savings of NIS 2 billion per year
in a policy document of the Electricity Authority published to the public in June 2020 estimate that by 2030 it will be possible to increase the production of electricity from renewable energies in Israel to 30 percent - the absolute majority from solar energy. According to the economic cost and benefit data of meeting this goal, the transition to renewable energies includes an excess cost to the consumer of between NIS 3 and 9 billion. On the other hand, the health benefits from reducing air pollution may amount to between 5 and 11 billion shekels - that is, by weighing these two ranges, a range is obtained between an excess cost of about 2 billion shekels and a saving of about 4 billion shekels for the state.
According to the report, in order to meet the goal of 30 percent renewable energy, there is a need for cooperation between all sectors of Israeli society: the public sector needs to commit to changing policy and correct regulation, the business sector needs to recognize the opportunity it faces, and the general public needs to install the solar panels on roofs Private and shared houses.
Passive or active influence?
In the new study, in which German researchers from the University of Potsdam and researchers from the University of Berkeley in California collaborated, the city of Fresno in California (which has the same climatic conditions very similar to those in Israel) was used as a case study.
According to the researchers, the main factor that predicts a consumer's willingness to install a solar panel is not his socio-economic status nor his political leanings - but the distance of his house from another house with solar panels. That is, if our neighbors have solar panels installed, it is more likely that we will also install them.
How exactly does it work? The effect of a neighbor with solar panels can be passive: that is, when we look out the window and see panels on the roofs of neighboring houses, it will subconsciously make us want to install panels in our house. Another effect is more active and based on the actual interaction of a person with his neighbors, where the neighbors will chat about the new panels they just installed. Such an interaction will lead, according to the researchers, to an increase in the chance that their neighbors will also install panels on the roof.
The new study examined, among other things, which type of effect is more significant. To this end, the researchers mapped with the help of satellite photographs all the solar panels installed in private homes in the city of Fresno in the USA. They also collected data on the income of the residents in each area, on their ethnic background and the social circles to which they belong.
Using machine-learning models, the researchers cross-referenced all the data and checked what the most influential factor was. Their analysis produced unequivocal results: not only that the more neighbors have solar panels, the more likely it is that those who don't have one will also install one, the more significant factor that affects the installation is the passive mechanism.
Indeed, the study shows that the further the density of solar panels is located from a house without a panel, the lower the impact on the installation.
Ultimately the biggest impact is the presence of solar panels within 200 meters of the house. At a distance of 400 meters the effect is already reduced by half.
The policy changes
The authors of the study claim in light of their findings that if the interest is the installation of as many solar panels as possible, it is enough to install a few solar panels in an "arid" area with no panels at all - and the installation of the next panels in the area will spread like wildfire.
Dr. Ahuva Windsor, a psychologist who also specializes in environmental issues, agrees with the authors of the study that installing solar panels in an area without them may lead to installation in people who did not have them in the first place. But he expresses doubt about the chances of such a policy succeeding in Israel: "Installing panels and introducing them to people's awareness can enable a transition to solar energy in places where there is currently no such transition... In Israel, however, there is a problem that government policy is constantly changing. Policy must be consistent in order to build trust with the public, and when there is no trust, people are less inclined to invest."
And what is the situation on the ground? According to the experience of Lior Ben-Ari Pinchevski from a notebook Prinergy, which deals with the installation of solar panels, "The positive side is that we definitely see the phenomenon of people installing on the same street. I don't know how to give exact statistics, but it is a main factor in the installation of panels."
However, Pinchevsky identifies some problems that reduce the response in Israel to installing panels. One of the problems is convincing people that this is a worthwhile investment. "Of course there is the financial barrier. This is an expenditure of tens of thousands of shekels or more, so it is a decision that people take seriously. Even though the dry numbers show that this is a very worthwhile investment even with a high return and low risk - people don't always believe it's worthwhile."
So what do you do to encourage customers to invest in solar panels? "Beyond the efforts of persuasion that were made even at the political level, we really take all the bureaucracy involved in the matter on us, to make it easier for the customers," says Pinchevski. "In addition, there is a problem with the infrastructure of the electricity grid in Israel. Instead of adjusting the grid in the direction of generating electricity from solar panels already a few years ago, they started with it only recently. This led to the fact that a year ago we started receiving rejections from the electricity company on requests to install panels."
According to Pinchevsky, the rejections of the requests lead to the breaking of the public's trust and harm the demands: "We have quite a few stories of consumers who saw that their neighbor installed solar panels and contacted us to install a system in their home as well. We started the process for them and then the electricity company tells them it's impossible. Such people say to themselves, 'My neighbor down the street installed panels, so why is it suddenly not possible for me?' Such stories create a bad name for the field and I hope that in the coming years this situation will change."
