One of the proposals that can be found today is to let everyone - or at least the young and fit - get infected with the new corona virus in order to develop herd immunity. The question is, are there really no damages in an apparently asymptomatic infection?
One of the proposals that can be found today is to let everyone - or at least the young and fit - get infected with the new corona virus in order to develop herd immunity. The assumption is that if you are young and with a well-functioning immune system, then you will not develop symptoms of illness at all, or if you do - they will be particularly mild.
Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the case.
Let's go back in time. On the infamous "Diamond Princess" ship, 712 tourists were infected with the corona virus. Almost half of them did not develop visible symptoms, and thus the myth that the virus is harmless to a large part of the population took root. Today we are beginning to understand that this was a mistake. In more than half (54 percent) of those asymptomatic ("without symptoms") whose lungs were examined by CT, signs of lung inflammation were detected[1].
These signs have already been discovered in a number of different studies in which asymptomatic carriers of the corona virus were examined. The same signs were also revealed in a quarter of the asymptomatic children who participated in the study in Wuhan, China[2].
What do these signs of inflammation indicate? The simple answer is that we don't know yet. The new corona virus is - well, new - and we still have no clear idea how exactly it works, which tissues it reaches in the body and what it does there. It is possible that the damaged lungs will recover within a few weeks and return to health. This seems more likely especially in young people. It is also possible that the lungs will never recover. We just don't know.
The factor of not knowing here is huge, and is a critical component in making decisions regarding the response to the virus. He also explains why the decision makers are so wary of the virus and prefer to put the population in quarantine instead of playing Russian roulette with a virus whose exact properties no one is sure of. To put it bluntly: if the virus really harms the health of half of all asymptomatic infected people (not to mention even the symptomatic patients), and if we assume that half of Israel's population will be infected with the virus sooner or later, then the meaning is that we are exposing a quarter of Israel's residents to lung damage. Damages that they don't even feel in their presence - but definitely exist, and may cause long-term damage to the lungs.
And not just for the lungs.
We have known for a long time that in 20-30 percent of patients hospitalized due to the corona virus, there is damage to the heart muscle[3]. A study from last week revealed that similar vulnerabilities can also be found in asymptomatic patients. The study followed young athletes who were infected with the corona virus, and found that four of them developed inflammation of the pericardium. Two of those four were asymptomatic[4]. A similar study from Germany showed that out of one hundred patients with the corona virus, seventy-eight suffered from cardiac problems. And here too, a significant part - twelve of them - had no outward symptoms[5].
"This is a large share of the people, and even though they are without symptoms, from the inside they absorb injuries in the body that they don't even know about." said Dr. Eric Topol[6], director of the Scripps Research Institute in California, who recently wrote a scientific review about the damage caused to people who contract the virus without external symptoms[7].
What is the meaning of all these internal vulnerabilities? Again - we don't know. But even if we assume that ninety percent (an arbitrary number I threw in here) of the asymptomatic patients will recover from them completely - and maybe they won't even notice them during the recovery period - then all the rest will have some damage to the lungs and heart muscle. And if, again, we assume that the entire population in Israel becomes infected with the virus, then the final damage to public health is expected to be enormous: tens of thousands of new heart and lung patients, a significant part of which may come from age groups where we would not expect such symptoms.
Are you willing to take this risk for yourself and others? Not only the elderly and the infirm, which some people seem to find so easy to give up on - but also for your children and young family members?
I would like to hope not.
To be clear: in this record I am not coming out for or against the closure. There are many ways to deal with the virus, and lockdown is only one way, with a high financial (and mental) cost. It must also be accompanied by monitoring the patients and identifying the chain of infection, or there is no point in it. But when you want to understand what guides the decision makers when they decide on a dramatic step like a lockdown, you should know the magnitude of the risk and the stake when letting the virus continue to spread among the population.
Only Health. for all of us
Oh, and one last word about Sweden. There are claims that the state allowed all citizens to be infected with the new virus there, so we can perhaps understand from there what its long-term health effects are. The reality is more complex. First of all, although the Swedish government did not impose significant restrictions in the law (apart from a ban on the gathering of more than fifty people), the Swedish citizens understood the point, and themselves limited their social interactions to a third of what they were before the virus[8]. Traffic in Stockholm has fallen to only forty percent of what it was originally[9]. Even under these voluntary restrictions, only about fifteen percent of the population was infected with the virus (according to antibody tests and as of August 2020)[10]. Will all those infected recover completely? Or will the Swedish government's calculated risk take its revenge over time, as a result of the ongoing damage of the virus even to those who are only lightly infected externally? No one knows the answers yet.
More of the topic in Hayadan:
- Corona virus Can herd immunity really protect us?
- The corona virus: even when there are no symptoms, damage to the lungs is caused
- Proposal: A strategy to ensure almost full activity in the economy during future epidemic waves in the coming year
[1] https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/ryct.2020200110
[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7195294/
[3] https://www.heartrhythmjournal.com/article/S1547-5271(20)30625-1/fulltext#tbl1
[4] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2770645
[5] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916
[6] https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200811/asymptomatic-covid-silent-but-maybe-not-harmless
[7] https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-3012
[8] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133
[9] https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/
[10] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0141076820945282
25 תגובות
The only one who understands the issue here is Idan in his comment that the whole purpose of the quarantine and the other measures is to prevent the simultaneous infection of excessively large numbers and this is in order to prevent a collapse of the health system, we will all be infected (I have already recovered) again and again this will undoubtedly happen until there is a vaccine and a cure as well Together it cannot be prevented regardless of the degree of impact or damage to the body
The main factor is the preservation of the health system, prevention of infection and death of doctors and nurses, since with damage to the system, then heart attacks will not be treated, and we will suffer accidents and any other health failure
You can look at this as an "extended phenotype" of the virus (see Richard Dawkins' story of this name in Hebrew)
Of course, no one still knows what will happen in the future, what's more, we already know very well what happens when people smoke, both to them and to those around them, and yet, you get into every possible explosion and it's right there in front of you, a ticking heart-lung bomb.
I'm not from the Cancer Society and I don't have a problem with smokers, there are a million and one similar examples such as processed meat, smoke emissions from vehicles and factories, industrial pollution and more and more... What does bother me is the sudden and disproportionate jump of the system that wants to protect us so much? ??? In my opinion, enough time has passed to see that the number of dead is really insignificant, not in relation to the dead from road accidents or whatever you want.
And this is where the lack of trust in the intentions of the system comes from, of course with the generous help of Bibi Rivlin and the other elected officials who loudly broadcast that there is a serious conspiracy here..
Apparently the person who suggested it was a young man. As if old people have no right to life and no right to express an opinion.
In Sweden the story is different from Israel because the density is much lower there (almost twenty times).
Density has a direct impact on the coefficient of adhesion.
In Israel there is talk of an initial infection coefficient of about 3.
Calculations I made on what is known from Sweden indicate that the initial infection coefficient there was approximately 1.136
Those who want to enter the details are welcome to read here:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L5Jh6TmsocsXz2ukHTjT2hAQV3L0S7TKBBu5m3vrgVA/edit?usp=sharing
This article is irrelevant. If nothing is clear yet, neither in the present nor in the future, then what is the purpose of the article?
It's a bit strange that smoking cigarettes, which is harmful and kills a lot of people a year, is allowed, alcohol, which damages the liver and brain, is allowed. Processed food that causes obesity and risk of heart attack - allowed. Driving a car that can cause death and severe disability is allowed
But what is forbidden is what we do not know. Am I supposed to conclude that the world cares about my lungs? Or is it simply fear of the unknown.. because until now humanity has mastered killing itself in a million creative and legal (and tested) ways (wars, pollution, self-destruction in whatever form you choose,
What will happen is a very simple thing - people will get sick and people will die. There is nothing new under the sun. Since the dawn of the world, living things got sick, and living things died. Anyone who tries to exclude humans from this very simple equation is no worse than the last of the idolaters. Let life continue as it is and it is enough to pretend to be God. Go back to programming artificial intelligence and Bitcoin and it's enough to put the whole world into unnecessary panic
Similar to nature where light waves of different lengths from the sun strike it, different parts absorb it, other parts reflect other wavelengths. In the same way that interaction between the light of the star and the details in this world create colors.
In a similar way, there is a connection between a phenomenon that I will call light at the moment, and the separation of our will. In other words, there is an interaction between those molecules of desire that are essentially our essence, and the place from which they were created.
Therefore there is a connection between our desire, our thoughts and intentions and various phenomena.
Conclusion: The bat is only part of a chain of more ancient roots that depend on one thing: man
In the mutual relations between them, in the relations between us and in our relation to nature.
A nature that, although it appears to be a random thing that dangled through the big bang and dead stars, has evolved in various forms such as climate change, the domestication of fire, the invention of tools, language, the development of agriculture, and more.
There was one item of information hidden in it that was still shelved: a thought.
The same thought that accompanies the same development to a fixed and specific goal.
to believe? Unbelievable?
I believe that every truth will eventually be revealed.
Food for thought…
Advice against the corona virus -
Written by the holy Gaon Rabbi Aharon Rata ZIA, Shumer Emonim, the article on security and strengthening chapter XNUMX
And this is possible meaning that even a sharp sword placed on Adam's neck will prevent himself, meaning that he himself will not be the cause of preventing the measure of mercy, by removing his trust from his God, he will only strengthen his trust strongly in God, and for this Shafir brings evidence from what is written to him Ichal, that he is from the measure of trust and the Son.
It is also quoted from Rabinu Hari, the late Rabbi, when there is a city, nothing can control only those who have fear, but those who are strong in their hearts with their trust in God and overcome fear, nothing bad can control them, see (in the book Torat Natan Per And he lived) and this is his language there "and therefore one should also be careful not to be afraid when talking to Rachel and his soldiers, but to pray to God and He will satisfy them, because the one who fears before Him gives him strength and courage to overcome a plague of any kind in the city, but I am almost a moment until Anger will pass, and he will always engage in the Torah and the act of incense, and the condition of God will be abolished" Akal.
It is also quoted in the Gemara (Berchot page XNUMX:XNUMX) Yehuda bar Natan, he was a shekel, and I will let him go to Teriyah, I will rest, he said to her, "Trouble in that country, he is strong, for I have lost my soul." Proverbs XNUMX) Blessed is the man who always fears, according to the words of the Torah, it is written in the XNUMXth century, because if he fears something by this means he brings it upon himself XNUMX, and there is an allusion to this from the scripture (Proverbs XNUMX) A man's anxiety gives a mine and trusts in the Lord.
Excellent and important article.
It is not supposed to provide unequivocal answers but to flood the complexity of the issues involved in dealing with the corona.
The ranting responses are unnecessary and irrelevant.
It is important to have more articles like this.
In any case, everyone will formulate their opinion and behaviors according to their preliminary positions, but if you ask questions, maybe it will also open an opening for critical thinking...
I wonder how in Sweden without the restrictions only 15% of the population is infected? In Israel there are already 200,000 documented cases, which means at least 20% of the population, after all there are many more undocumented asymptomatic infected people.
I agree with Yuash,
And when you get the flu there are no 'signs of lung inflammation'?
In addition, the population on the ship was an elderly population. So, really...
What a stupid article.
You write as if there is a possibility at all not to let everyone get infected.
The whole purpose of quarantine, masks, social distancing, etc. is to lower the infection coefficient to a low enough number so that there will not be masses of patients in a short time (i.e. to flatten the curve). There was never any intention to "save" or prevent anyone from contracting Corona.
We are all going to be exposed/already exposed to the virus. So why lie to people?
But it is possible to be exposed to the dead virus without any symptoms, as Jews did in Europe during deadly plagues, and not be harmed
It is very possible that even if we examine a healthy population without underlying diseases that have not experienced corona, we will discover surprising symptoms. When you check something, i.e. when you search, you often find, you just usually don't check. In order to overcome this, there are studies of random assignment to a group and a control group that make it possible to discover even things that are closer to causality and it is not necessarily necessary to take headline-grabbing and anxiety-inducing correlations seriously.
There are so many holes in these arguments... There is no scientific proof today that this virus causes the long-term damages that were written here... The harms of smoking are much greater - it is for those who want to protect themselves, protect and half who are willing to take a risk that will take... A virus cannot be stopped and only an excellent immune system And herd immunity will lead to a normal life... The religion of anxiety didn't help anyone in anything, so they once invented a religion and it didn't prove itself because the rulers of religion used increasing anxiety to gain control and today the same with science
A thought provoking article for sure.
It's just not clear from here what the previous status of all those asymptomatic people who are now diagnosed with a heart or lung problem. Was the problem even before entering the study in which these hidden symptoms were discovered?
We will be happy to answer.
The effects of a general shutdown that comes and goes and comes and goes in the accordion method, has enormous damages in mental and physical health over a period of years. While the virus is a superior force that we must deal with and people understand that its damages must be accepted, the damages that are the result of failed leadership, closures and all kinds of illusory restrictions are destruction that man causes and you must be dealt with.
The accumulated hundreds of billions that are going down the drain due to the restrictions and closures, should have been poured into the health systems a long time ago, and started with it today.
Let the public deal with the virus and with the possibilities of placing restrictions on themselves by choice, especially the risk groups.
If they really care so much about public health... maybe they will ban cigarettes and not people? Maybe they will make tighter restrictions on harmful food products that are related to underlying diseases?
And maybe they will make it harder on air pollution, which has been proven in studies to be related to a stronger outbreak of Corona... and to tens of thousands of cases of heart and lung diseases and death per year?
The treatment of the epidemic was strongly mixed with the politics of corrupt leaders, and economic interests....
And now everything falls on protesters who are willing to take a risk in order to clean up the smelly lights of the State of Israel...
While on a daily basis tens of thousands of citizens do not walk with masks in closed spaces in parking lots and events, but do as if in an open area next to policemen...
In short, the State of Israel needs a psychologist and a psychiatrist more than a corona projector... and Happy New Year
Will we ever see an article about medical problems caused by overdiagnosis and overtreatment? On the lessons of the swine flu scare? About the shortcomings of screening tests? About the fact that sometimes in medicine 'less (medicine) = more (health)'?
It might be allowed to add that the flu is not that contagious. This is the reason why the number of deaths and injuries from the flu is small compared to the entire population. But, imagine a situation where the corona develops new strains like the flu. Imagine a situation where a new flu strain arrives, the only difference between it and the existing strains, is a ten times higher infection rate. And furthermore, that the new strain itself develops strains that are similar to it in the rate of infection. Thus, every year we will have to revaccinate the entire population for the new strains. In my eyes, which I do not know, this is the true nightmare. And my fear is that this will be the true result of the herd vaccination process.
He cannot write significant damage if he writes that we still don't know exactly what this virus does...
I want to remind everyone about another insignificant virus. It causes a mild flu-like fever that goes away completely after a few days. The big change happens after about 15 years, when it becomes clear that in the time that has passed it has secretly destroyed and collapsed the immune system and now the body is vulnerable to any secondary disease, such as flu or cancer. The virus is of course HIV and the disease it causes is AIDS. There is still no simple and cheap cure for AIDS, even though the virus has been known for about forty years.
In practice, the public in Israel decided completely independently, unanimously, for all strata and sectors, to develop herd immunity. Most Israelis walk around with a mask that is not properly placed over the nose and mouth. All the politicians, instead of protecting their population groups and taking care and demanding that they strictly observe the rules, are busy looking for "facilitation", as if the virus is some official in a government office, who can be pressured to fill out or not fill out some form. Mostly they are busy making sure that no one dares to slander their population group as infected, even though it really is infected. It encompasses all population groups, including the Khulirs who are protesting in Balfour. It's clear: I have to walk in the open street with a mask, but there is "no way" these protesters will infect each other in their mass infection parties. If someone dares to interrupt the demonstration, the general press will immediately jump on him like a snakebite, tear him to shreds and celebrate with the remains in the streets of the virtual city (without properly placed masks, of course). All under the auspices of their particular political interest.
The virus has been in Israel since December 2019 and does anyone imagine that it did not attack everyone who could attack??? This is exactly the reason why there are thousands of positives in the tests and there is no dramatic increase in the critically ill....think for a moment...you are told every day that there are 7000 or 6500 new positives...every day...and the number of critically ill patients has increased by a few individuals from the sick cases and today stands at about 660...leaves you to think A little more...probably many in the population didn't get the token...
Roy Shalom. Following Yoash's enlightenment. I also wondered if there is evidence that the corona is more harmful than the flu viruses in the long term?
Since when did any damage and you see that you are careful not to say significant damage become the leading logic. Have you ever seen what the lungs look like after the flu? It looks like craters after the bomb. Our body destroys the entire delicate structure of the lung's migration to kill as quickly as possible the infected epithelial cells as well as their healthy neighbors.
It passes and it too will pass