A new study, led by Dr. Efrat Shafer from the Hebrew University and with the participation of researchers from several universities, examined the changes in the rainy season in Israel in the last 45 years. "Climate change has not escaped Israel. The findings show a trend that will put the urban infrastructure in trouble, but may also change the entire ecosystem in our region in the coming years"
Climate change is already a consensus in the scientific and public discourse (although the public discourse is interfered with by those with interests that interfere with AB). There are many and varied forecasts that try to predict how the climate changes and what the temperatures and rainfall regimes in the world are expected to be in the future. In the worst case scenario, a significant warming is predicted that will have a fatal impact on the way of life of human society, on vegetation, ecosystems and global agriculture. The horizontal increase in temperatures has been relatively noticeable in recent years, and previous studies done in Israel have shown that there is also a clear trend of an increase in temperature here. On the other hand, the changes in the rainfall regime in the region (whether there was a more or less rainy year, the dispersion of the rainy season and drought years) are much more complicated to measure, mainly because of the large variation from year to year.
A new study published this week in the journal Climatic Change, led by Dr. Efrat Shafer from the Faculty of Food and Environmental Agriculture at the Hebrew University, in collaboration with Dr. Ron Drori from the Hebrew University, Dr. Baruch Ziv from the Open University and Prof. Hadas Saaroni and Ms. Adi Atkin from Tel Aviv University , examine whether the rainy season in Israel is undergoing change processes in recent years, in terms of the amounts of rain or the distribution of the rain throughout the season? "One of the main goals was to check whether there is a noticeable change in the rain regime that could affect in the future the degree of adaptation of the local flora to the local climate conditions," explained Dr. Shaffer. "For example, the woodland and forest vegetation in Israel is adapted to survive a long season without rain, but it is not clear whether those plants will be able to survive even if the length of the dry season is even longer, or if the amounts of rain in the wet season are smaller. The ability of the plants to survive has a lot to do with what can be grown here and under what conditions."
The team of researchers analyzed the trend of change in the rainy season using the daily precipitation data from 51 measuring stations of the meteorological service between the years 1975-2020, including the annual amount of rain, the length of the season, and the number of rainy days per season. The researchers also examined the relationship between the trends of the rainfall regime and the activity and frequency of different types of storms that create the rain events.
The amount of rain has not changed, but it is spread over fewer days and causes floods
The results of the study clearly show that The annual amount of rain has not changed in the 45 years examined, but there is a trend towards a reduction in the number of rainy days as well as a shortening of the rainy season. Dr. Shaffer: "The significance of these three findings is that the daily amounts of rain on stormy days are higher than they were in the past, that most of the rainy days are concentrated in the middle of the season (especially in the main winter months, December to February) and the amounts of rain that fall at the end of the season have decreased. The fact that the same amount of rain falls in fewer days is manifested in the events of storms with a very large amount of rain that falls in one day or a few days", Shafer added and continued, "We have witnessed such events of intense rain in a short time in recent years in Israel, and similarly in the recent event in Western Europe. Such a rainfall regime has many consequences in terms of the drainage system in the built and natural areas, an impact on streams and the regime of absorption and percolation of rainwater into the groundwater as opposed to washing and drifting into the sea."
The dry season is getting longer
In addition, it was found in the study that most of the annual rain falls in the middle of winter and less rain falls in the fall and spring, resulting in a longer dry season. "The lengthening of the dry season can have consequences for vegetation and natural ecosystems, as well as for agriculture. Understanding the trend that is taking place will help farmers to adapt and the policy makers to prepare for the future and adapt the urban infrastructures in order to prevent disasters and try to minimize damage to the environment and water sources."
More of the topic in Hayadan:
- The meteorological service: changes in the distribution of rains but not in their amount. Does political correctness minimize the role of man?
- Public involvement and political support are essential for success in any country's fight against the climate crisis
- The desertification of the Middle East as a result of the climate crisis will lead to wars
- Your city is not ready for the climate crisis
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Of course there is no consensus for warming at the local level. The claim is only about the global average of the entire planet. Research on the change of rainfall in Israel is interesting regardless of the average of the entire planet. A 45-year study is even more problematic because of the relatively short period. Not every change is necessarily a change for the worse (on the face of it, the concentration of rainfall for a short period will probably have a more negative effect than good). One way or another, in the State of Israel, irrigation, water storage, and desalination are more dominant than the rate of climate change in the country.
Consensus in science - such as on the subject of evolution is obtained when there are millions of evidence for and not a single evidence against.
In everything related to the climate crisis. There is no evidence to the contrary. Everything that happens meets the theoretical predictions given in light of the physical calculations - the properties of the greenhouse gases, their concentration, their direct effect - the melting of glaciers for example and the indirect effect - the warming of the sea level, the shifting of climate zones which in turn causes mass extinctions and more. Until now, all the opponents present are a partial collection of data they take from legitimate scientific articles, and reach the opposite conclusion to that of the authors of the article due to unfounded assumptions and disconnects from reality.
This is not Lysenko's biology.
Consensus exists only in communist Russia and its metastases.
There is not and should not be a consensus in science. Global warming has turned from science to mass religion and it's a shame that a scientific article is used for propaganda....