The Russians disappear, the Japanese too

The concern about a global population explosion has been replaced in some countries by the fear of depletion. But that's not necessarily a bad thing

The most serious demographic problem the world faced in the second half of the twentieth century was the population explosion. Robert McNamara, the president of the World Bank in the XNUMXs, compared the threat posed by the uncontrolled growth of populations to the danger posed by the nuclear bomb.

Those concerns have dissipated. The current century feeds itself with anxieties about a decline in the demographic curve. The shrinking of the populations of Russia and Eastern European countries is information known to all, but its dimensions are less known. According to estimates, in the years 2005-2050 the population of Russia will shrink by 22% and the number of residents of Ukraine will decrease by 43%.

The shrinking of the population is a cause for concern, because according to conventional wisdom it is accompanied by an economic depression. In its most extreme form, population thinning may indeed be due to economic reasons: despondency and pessimism may lead to reduced birth rates and encourage suicides and alcoholism. But usually the trend is the opposite. Demographic decline results from a low birth rate, which characterizes periods of economic growth. In Japan, for example, the birth rate dropped in the mid-70s to less than 2.1 children per woman - the rate needed to keep the population unchanged. In the last 15 years, the birth rate in Japan has remained at a low level.

If the demographic decline is not usually due to an economic recession, is it possible that it causes it? Roughly, the answer is yes. As the population shrinks, GDP growth decreases. Sometimes even the dimensions of the economy itself shrink.

Governments hate the idea of ​​a shrinking population, because the absolute size of the GDP affects their standing on the international level. The larger the country's economy and the larger its army, the greater its political power. The GDP index was first introduced in the United States in the 40s, as part of the war effort.

Private companies are also worried about the shrinking population: they don't like to think about shrinking their local market. But ordinary citizens should not be bothered by this. The main index that affects private economic well-being is GDP per capita.

How, then, is the GDP per capita affected by the demographic decline? The bad news is that it is likely to slow its rate of growth, as the working-age population is shrinking faster than the general population.

But this is not necessary: ​​the growth in the rate of production (productivity) may continue to increase GDP per capita. As the workforce shrinks, and the pressure to use new technologies to increase efficiency increases, the rate of productivity may rise faster. In any case, it is possible to raise the retirement age to increase the labor pool even if the population is small.

People like to worry. Perhaps this is part of the symptoms that characterize the aging of the population, but the gloom that surrounds the phenomenon of demographic decline misses the point. The new demographic situation, where populations are shrinking and at the same time aging, should actually make us happy. In the past, humanity was trapped by high birth rates and high death rates. Now she has escaped to a space of low birthrate and low mortality.

Women's ability to control the number of children they bring into the world is an incomparable blessing, similar to the ability of the average person in rich countries to enjoy an extra ten years of life compared to the 60s. Politicians may fear the decline of their country's economic power, but citizens should be happy about the new demographics. She heralds the golden age.

A negative birth

The expected decrease in the population in the years 2005 - 2050 in %

Russia 22_

Japan 21_

Italy 21_

Germany 5_