Israel and global warming

Even those who are not ready to simply accept the black prophecies presented in Al Gore's film "A Disturbing Truth", will not be able to deny the findings of climatic measurements and satellite photographs - the earth is in the process of global warming

Scientific American editors' note in the June-July 2007 issue

In the Panorama section we bring David Bialo's article "Conservative climate". The article claims that the consensus document published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in February 2007 may be too conservative because of the need to reach unanimous agreement among scientists and diplomats from 154 countries. There is a relatively high probability that the rate of change may be faster. Even those who are not ready to simply accept the black prophecies presented in Al Gore's film "A Disturbing Truth", will not be able to deny the findings of climatic measurements and satellite photographs - the earth is in the process of global warming. If there is a debate, it revolves around the question of whether the entire process is man-made, or whether additional factors are at work.
The IPCC is a unique body, established in the 80s as part of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to study and monitor climate changes, their causes and their impact on the economy and the well-being of mankind. The first assessment report (AR1) was published in 1990, the second in 1995 and the third in 2001. What sets the IPCC apart is that it is an integrated body, with many expert members, from the best scientists to diplomats-representatives of governments (hence the name "Intergovernmental Panel"). The conclusions and recommendations, intended for political bodies of policy makers and decision makers, must be accepted unanimously.
The summary of the predictions and conclusions of the IPCC's fourth assessment report predicts that by 2050 the average temperature in the world is expected to rise by 2 to 4.5 degrees Celsius and that the global ocean level will rise by 18 to 60 cm by 2100. It should be noted that the report's editors avoided claiming possible positive feedback effects increase the warming, due to the difficulty in quantitative assessment.
What will be the effect of global warming on Israel? How will its climate, its environmental quality, its economy and the well-being of its residents be affected? Was such an assessment made and when was it made? Are there certified means of monitoring climate changes in our region? These are questions that deserve to be asked in light of the IPCC's findings and predictions. In the last two decades, quite a few studies have been conducted in Israel with the aim of measuring various aspects of climatic changes in our region. The first attempt to compile the findings in an integrative and comprehensive report in the style of the IPCC was made in 2000. According to the invitation of the Ministry of the Environment, A. Sfariel and J. Far from the Blaustein Institute for Desert Research at Ben Gurion University of the Negev [which you can read about in the Spotlight section on page 16] prepared the national report The first is about climate changes expected in Israel until 2100. The main predictions are: a temperature increase of 1.6 to 1.8 degrees Celsius compared to the multi-year average of 1961-1990 and a reduction of 4% to 8% in precipitation. The report also predicts a shortening of the rainy season, along with an increase in precipitation intensity while reducing the number of rain events. The frequency of extreme weather events, extreme heat waves in the summer and stormy weather in the winter will increase. Sea level is expected to rise by 12 to 88 centimeters.
From the point of view of 2007 and in view of the findings of the IPCC's fourth report, the conclusions of the Blaustein Institute's national report seem rather moderate. A report by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research estimates that the temperature in Israel will rise by 2080 degrees by about 4.6 compared to the average of 1990-1961. It is therefore the government's duty to initiate the establishment of a permanent interdisciplinary and inter-institutional body, such as the IPCC, which will deal with monitoring climatic changes in the country and prepare periodic reports and forecasts on their consequences for the economic system and the well-being of its residents, and especially for the water economy, the energy economy, agriculture and the quality of the environment.

The desert threatens Israel - a document prepared by the Knesset's research department for discussion in the science committee