The question of the future of the Iranian reactor in Busheer and Iran's nuclear program in general, leads to slow changes in the strategic concept of the Islamic Republic
The question of the future of the Iranian reactor in Busheer and Iran's nuclear program in general, leads to a slow change in the strategic concept of the Islamic Republic, which continues to believe that its nuclear project will not be interrupted before it reaches the stage of operating the reactor and transitioning to the realization of a nuclear weapons program.
Western diplomats in Tehran and various intelligence sources report, among other things, that the Ayatollah regime ordered the army and the other security forces to assess the mere possibility of a new situation, which would be expressed not only in the concept of security, but also in Iran's foreign policy and its ability to influence, at least in theory, on "geographical circles" whose borders Depending on the "Hashaib" missile range.
These missiles, as well as "procurement missiles" that may come from North Korea, are designed to carry a nuclear, chemical, biological warhead and a warhead loaded with explosives.
The first strategic circle in Iran's nuclear concept encompasses the Middle East, the Republics of Central Asia, the Eastern Mediterranean and Turkey. This is the area in which Israel is located, which, at least rhetorically, is considered "enemy number 1" of the republic and the Muslim world. Also within the scope of the first strategic circle are economic/strategic itineraries of the West and in particular the USA. Iran is aware of the fact that foreign involvement in the Gulf is not only related to the "liberation of Iraq" but also to securing energy sources. In addition to this, the largest US ground force since Operation Desert Storm 2001 operates right across the Iranian-Iraqi border. Some of the most important naval units of the world's leading power and its allies operate along the entire length of the gulf and in its inlets. A recent Iranian assessment, based on Shia sources in the interim government of Baghdad and reports from Shia centers, foresees the possibility of the dissolution of the Iraqi state into independent cantons and a state of civil war. A situation that will allow a "land bridge" to the Mediterranean Sea. Iran's threats to participate in the "war for the liberation of Jerusalem" may take on a significant dimension, if it can send to Syria and Lebanon a "delivery force" that will include land army formations and air force units. Also including the "immediate area" to which Iran is referring, a number of countries and principalities, who are watching Iran in terms of their suspicions . At the head of this group is Saudi Arabia and you, Egypt and Turkey.
In the division of the Near East into realistic strategic threat circles, Pakistan is included, which is the first Islamic nuclear state. The Shiite minority in Pakistan is threatened by terrorism from Sunni-Wahhabi groups and its leaders are expecting Iranian aid to come from across the common border of Pakistan and Iran. Iran-Pakistan relations have known ups and downs over the years, when since the rise to power in Islamabad of General Pervaz Musharraf, a cooling is felt in the nature of the relations, what's more, today there is no doubt that Pakistani nuclear scientists sold critical knowledge and advice to the Iranians. The Pakistani interest includes the ability to influence what is happening in Afghanistan, which also borders Iran and various regions in India and China, countries that, despite keeping a low profile in regards to the Iranian bomb - which has yet to be created - show an interest in any development related to Busheer. Iran continues to be a border country sympathetic to the Shiites of Afghanistan, to their right position during the years of Taliban rule and power struggles against their influence, including the growing influence of al-Qaeda which used Afghanistan as a central base.
A Turkish intelligence source recently said that the main question that preoccupies the Iranian security establishment is the ability to serially manufacture Shiahab missiles and other models, as well as the establishment of missile bases, mobile missile units and a ground and satellite control system. The source said that one of the prevailing assessments in NATO is that Iran Strive to develop "mini-bombs" with a limited destructive effect, capable of being "transferred" to the target using airplanes, or lighter missiles "than what would be liked". The source in Iran's hands also said, contingency plans, a relic of the era of the Shah Riza Pahlavi, which deal with atomic shells, models which used to be in the American military in Europe. Nuclear shells, which are sometimes defined as "neutron weapons" can be fired from the existing artillery weapons in Iran and their effectiveness is important in a limited tactical activity radius, due to their low radioactive effect and the limitation of environmental damage.
The source of the interest in nuclear artillery shells, defined as "tactical weapons", is the Shah's attempts to ensure the supply of a number of such shells in the event of a Soviet attack. Nuclear shells of which 155 were kept in Western Europe until recent years. They were produced in various diameters designed for 203 mm howitzer guns. , 175 mm cannons and 58 mm cannons. A shell weighing XNUMX kg, for example, is intended to create a "limited destructive effect" equal, according to the various models, to eight hundred tons of TNT and up to a shell with a destructive force equal to one thousand three hundred tons of TNT before the shells were fired From Europe within the framework of disarmament agreements and transferred to be destroyed or stored in the USA, Iranian intelligence tried to get its hands on nuclear shells, especially after it became known that Iraq's Saddam Hussein al-Takhreti was "toying" with the idea of a "super cannon" that would use nuclear weapons.
Lessons from studying Iran's latest multi-armed exercises following the series of "Ashoura" maneuvers, one of which was held only a short time ago, teach, among other things, that the Ayatollahs' generals practiced situations of stopping enemy armor and alternately breaking through enemy formations, while using conventional means that for the purpose of visualization they referred to to them as a tactical nuclear weapon.
A source in the Gulf says that the Iranian General Staff regularly conducts a series of map exercises and war games. Alongside these exercises, which are conducted without troops, there are assessments - the situation of the roles of the army, navy and air force in the coming decade, when a central factor in the future assessments is the question of the defense budget (currently 4.3 billion dollars 3.3% of the national product) and the need to decide whether to produce a limited number of nuclear bombs, as a general strategic threat, or to prefer artillery weapons in wide distribution, something that will require far-reaching changes in the structure of the army.
The main opponents of this type of program are precisely the Ayatollahs, who believe that aside from the nuclear rhetoric, Iran's armed forces must continue to focus on internal security and be the main defender of the regime. Budget and structural changes must come at the expense of internal security needs, as former President Rafsang recently warned J. who is concerned about civilian riots, street demonstrations and the strengthening of bodies demanding the democratization of the Islamic Republic. The situation is largely reminiscent of the security picture in Pakistan, which requires consideration of the deployment of nuclear weapons and their purpose also at the level of the possible battlefield with India against the increased internal security needs required as a response to terrorism.
Tehran's strategic planning also includes an unclear theory of the ability to influence parts of Europe and Russia and, in terms of the broad strategic concept, "the ability to be heard loudly" also in parts of Western Europe and the ability to use, when necessary, a "North Koran method" of political and economic nuclear blackmail. .
At this stage, on the eve of the completion of the Boshier facility, the Iranian army is relying on conventional weapons systems, more than half of which are classified as obsolete, military weapons from the era of the Shah before the 1979 revolution. Recent exercises conducted by the Iranian army, such as "Aashura 5", did not show an impressive technological or scientific breakthrough. The launch of a "Shaihab" missile and loud announcements about "handing it over to the army" therefore mainly testify to Tehran's ambition to one day become the possessor of a nuclear army, which will rely on ballistic missiles and create a strategic balance, especially vis-à-vis Israel. However, the Ayatollahs know very well the difference between rhetoric and reality and in the meantime Continue to dream, plan and...hope while the tense world holds its breath....
The Iranian nuclear issue, like the North Korean one, continues to preoccupy the political agenda in the international arena, including the upcoming US presidential elections. Observers and situation analysts specializing in Iran say that the administration ordered its spokesmen to show restraint in anticipation of the election results in Washington and the hope of seeing Senator Kerry win and bring his country For reconciliation moves. The Iranians hope that the Kerry administration, if indeed there is an existing fact, will adopt a policy that will allow Iran to open Bushier with a lower threat level than exists today and above all to operate the reactor while restraining Israel, the theoretical enemy, for whom a nuclear bomb in the hands of the Ayatollahs is not a possibility. You can live .
