Dr. Avi Shapira, Chairman of the Inter-ministerial Steering Committee for Earthquake Assessments:

*Dr. Shapira said these things at the first academic forum for emergency management held at the University of Haifa. "It's not a question of 'if' but of 'when'"

"In Israel, a large earthquake occurs on average every 80 years, with the last one being in 1927. We are currently in the zone of statistical error"

*Dr. Shapira said these things at the first academic forum for emergency management held at the University of Haifa. "I hope that now they believe me that an earthquake in Israel will happen and it is not a question of 'if' but of 'when'", he added *

"I hope that now you believe me and my colleagues when we say that an earthquake will occur in Israel with certainty and it is not a question of 'if' but of 'when'," said Dr. Avi Shapira, chairman of the Inter-ministerial Steering Committee for Earthquake Assessments at the first academic forum for the management of emergency situations held today at the University of Haifa.

In his words, Dr. Shapira noted that an earthquake has occurred at least once in the last 2000 years anywhere in Israel and as the experts know today, wherever there was an earthquake in the past there will be one in the future as well. "In Israel, on average, a strong earthquake occurs once every 80 years and since the last one was in 1927, we are currently in the zone of statistical error. Of course, a few more decades could pass before the earthquake, but it could also happen now. We also know that the longer the time between tremors, the stronger the tremor will be," he added.

According to the chairman of the government steering committee, the only way to minimize damage in an earthquake is by adapting and strengthening the buildings, but here comes the problem that originates from the gaps between the local and national governments, "We have a good building standard and the person responsible for the standard is the local authority through the local planning committee and construction, but these committees have no tools to check and enforce the standard," he said.

Dr. Shapira also referred to TMA 38, a national program approved in 2005 according to which contractors will take it upon themselves to strengthen existing buildings and in return will receive a construction percentage. "TMA 38 is worth in advance only in places where the land is expensive, but our inspection shows that even in the expensive places in the center of the country, out of 100 thousand buildings that could have been strengthened according to TMA 38, only hundreds of buildings were actually strengthened. The reason is the greed and stupidity of the citizens on the one hand and the refusal of the local authorities to grant additional construction percentages to the contractors for different and varied reasons - some are just and some less so," he noted.

The importance of the local government as the most important authority, especially for the immediate response in the event of an earthquake, was repeated by all the speakers, when Ephraim Karni, head of the district unit of the National Emergency Authority, emphasized that there is no body other than the local authority that can help during the initial period after an earthquake. "It doesn't matter if it is a strong or weak authority, a functioning authority or not, an authority ready or not - this is the authority that will have to do the work," he said.

Sharon Azriel, MD, CEO of the Local Government Center said that the fact that the local authority is the cornerstone for dealing with emergencies has already become a slogan, but in practice the central government limits them to the point of absurdity. "During the Second Lebanon War, we developed a 'city embracing city' program, in which cities from the center adopted and helped cities from the north. Within a few days, the mayors of the host cities received a letter from the Attorney General stating that a mayor is not allowed to spend money to host residents of another city and any mayor who does so will be subject to personal charge procedures. So here is the example of how much we are seen as a cornerstone", he said and added that although more than 95% of the authorities are prepared for emergencies, but in light of the cuts and budgetary distress of some authorities, the issues of emergency preparedness are pushed aside.

"If the mayor has money and has to decide between building a new boulevard or a new park, and building an underground command center that no resident sees or is aware of - he enters into a difficult dilemma," he noted.