Ariel Karlinski from the Hebrew University, one of the initiators of a research work on the global mortality data from the virus, clarifies: "In Iran we know that the difference is due to deliberate concealment. Also, 54 of the 105 countries studied in the research work I carried out (over 50%) hide some information regarding their mortality data"
A new study carried out by Ariel Karlinsky, a research student at the Hebrew University, presents new data regarding the number of people who died from Corona in a large number of countries - 103 countries as part of the study that was published as a scientific article at the beginning of this month in the scientific magazine elife, and 105 countries beyond this publication - and mainly about countries who are trying to eliminate and hide their "real" corona mortality data. According to the study, while all the countries reported 4.2 million deaths from Corona by the end of last July, the total "realistic" mortality figures are 40% more than the official figures in those countries. Is the phenomenon of intentionally hiding information by countries large, or are there simply more countries that are unable to provide data due to economic, medical or bureaucratic difficulties? And in general, how many countries are considered "fair" - do not try to present false data about mortality from Corona? Karlinski's research attempted to answer these questions.
The information on which the researcher was based during his work was excess mortality data, that is, how many more people died during a certain period compared to what was expected according to previous years. These data are directly related to Corona. During the months of the epidemic, the researcher was able to collect mortality data from many countries, those that were easy to obtain and collect information from through official sources (mainly developed and advanced countries, but not all) and those that could only be reached from less routine sources, such as population registers, statistical bureaus and other anonymous publications (mainly developing countries). The researcher created together with German statistician Dimitri Kovac from the University of Tübingen, a significant database that grew over time, as data was collected from more countries. At a certain point, they managed to collect data for the years 2015 to 2021, open to the general public and an audience of researchers working in this field. Following his work, it was decided to add Karlinski to the World Health Organization's expert conference, the Technical Advisory Group on COVID-19 Mortality Assessment, which makes sure to use his data.
A country that has a figure regarding excess mortality as similar as possible to the figure regarding the number of deaths from Corona (a ratio of 1), shows that it did not try to hide its mortality data as a result of the spread of the virus at the local level. In advanced countries, such as Israel and the USA, the results of the dead from excess mortality and its causes were close. The researchers found that there are countries with a limited ability to measure the number of deaths from Corona, and therefore found a growing percentage difference between the excess mortality figure and the declared number of deaths from Corona. And as mentioned, there were countries that it became clear to the researchers that prefer not to be precise about their data, to say the least. For example, in Tajikistan, which reported 90 deaths from corona alone, but in practice the excess mortality was 9,000.
"I can tell you that Turkey was supposed to release data at the end of June and then the next day postponed it to an 'unknown date due to technical difficulties,'" explained Karlinski this week. "Most likely they don't know how to explain the gap they found in their data, or don't want to explain it. Despite the concealment of the data, we have a reliable estimate for this country through data on 24 cities in Turkey (Istanbul, Izmir, etc.), which we reached by non-road means, which shows a significant excess mortality that, in total, translates to about five times what they reported at the official level. The information is not included in the current article because we did not receive data at the state-wide level, and the database only contains official national data."
Unfortunately for Karlinski, there are destinations to which many Israelis travel, for which he has not yet had time to collect data, such as India and Dubai - one of the attractive destinations in recent months. On the other hand, in the Seychelles, another favorite destination of the Israelis, mortality was found to be unencouraging - a decrease in the general deaths in the country and probably also in the deaths as a result of infection with infectious diseases due to strict isolation, closures and observance of distance and hygiene rules during the Corona crisis (0 versus -170) , and in Greece the data are not particularly alarming (10,000 compared to 7,500). One of the most surprising data regarding a touristic country concerned Russia - according to the excess mortality data received in the country, the mortality from Corona was up to four or five times what was reported (551,00 versus 135,000), information that indicates a cover-up. Even in neighboring Ukraine, the data is suspiciously inaccurate (88,000 versus 50,000).
And what is happening in the countries around us? In Egypt, the "real" death toll was 13 times higher than the one reported at the official level (196,000 versus 15,000), in Iran it was 2.15 times higher (115,000 versus 54,000), and in Lebanon the "best" results were 1.23 times higher (9,000 versus 7,300). "In Iran we know that the difference stems from a deliberate concealment. In August, they leaked to the BBC how the Iranian government has two sets of data on mortality from Corona - the real one, and the one it reports to the public and the world, which is about half - as the excess mortality shows," explained Karlinski.
So what is the percentage of countries that omit data out of the total number of countries studied? "54 of the 105 countries that were studied (since the publication of the article, 2 more countries have been added), i.e. just over 50% of those countries, hide some information, i.e. in which the ratio is greater than 1 between the excess mortality figure and their report on the number of deaths from Corona. On the other hand, there are countries that are not clear whether they are evading or having difficulty providing reliable and correct information due to bureaucratic problems. In Mexico, for example, it was reported that 220,000 people died from Corona, when in practice close to 470,000 died. The reason for this is probably related to the fact that they do not have the ability to monitor, but the final result shows that the excess mortality is much higher than reported, in a suspicious way," said the researcher this week.
Karlinski and Kovac's research is currently based on 105 countries, but they would like to see more countries with "suspicious" data on the list, which they would be happy to investigate to find out if they are hiding data. In this context, Karlinski noted that "we are always trying to add more and more countries to the list of countries under investigation. We will continue to update and maintain the database at least for the next few years and maybe even after that. It is worth noting that I hope that sometime soon we will have data about Turkey. At the end of the year, there should also be data on Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and possibly other countries."
More of the topic in Hayadan:
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Excellent research. There is no doubt that there is a large excess mortality due to the *corona crisis*. The question is whether it is possible to diagnose mortality due to the disease, or due to indirect causes such as failure to provide critical services due to system collapse.
It is puzzling to me that the subject the article focuses on - Iran. If Iran wanted to gain something from hiding the data, they should and could divide fabricated data by a little more than two. A hundred thousand or fifty thousand dead from a plague is something that makes a difference? Does it contribute to the prestige of the government? And is there a difference between 100 and 200 thousand? This is nonsense. Tajikistan acts as a data hider. It is clear that the difference between 15 and 90 thousand is very significant and with 90 thousand people may go out into the street. But Iran? 2 times? It's not serious. They are very sophisticated.
In addition, there is no reference to the truly significant disappearance - India. Millions must have died there.