A joint article for the science website and the Kolmosnet website
Yoram Mizrachi
A huge pro-Syrian demonstration held last week in Beirut brought Lebanon closer to a state of anarchy and violent and dangerous tests of strength. Leaders of parties and organizations in both camps, pro- and anti-Syrian, have begun preparations for the next stage in the test of national power created after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, but while supporters of Syria, led by President Emil Lahoud, his Prime Minister Omar Karma, the Shiite organizations Hezbollah and Amal draw encouragement from last Tuesday's demonstration , Syrian opponents began to anxiously prepare for what was to come, knowing that if the Syrians decided to switch to the use of The "acceptance" of threats of intimidation, kidnapping and murder - it will not be up to the government, the gendarmerie and the Lebanese army to stop the operations of the Syrian intelligence, which, more than any other body, symbolizes the de facto Syrian occupation in the eyes of the Lebanese. R. Bashar al-Assad, did not help much in terms of international views. The re-appointment of Karma to the position of Prime Minister proved that for the time being the Syrian supporters have the upper hand.
The preparations for the pro-Syrian demonstration held last Tuesday, in which Lebanese flags were raised alongside anti-American posters and large photographs of President Bashar al-Assad, were mainly coordinated between the Syrian intelligence and Hezbollah headquarters. Reliable sources in Beirut say that the deputy director of Hezbollah, Sheikh Naim Qassem, went several times to Damascus, where he met with the head of intelligence, the president's brother-in-law, General Assaf Shawkat, and representatives of Iranian intelligence.
In at least one case, Naim went out twice in one day to Beirut and returned there after the big demonstration that put President George Bush in a mocking light, who at almost the same time was talking about the "desires of democracy and freedom of the Lebanese people". The main reason for using the method of face-to-face talks between Hezbollah and Syrian intelligence was to prevent the listening of Hezbollah's communication channels with Damascus, mainly by Unit 8200 of the Israeli intelligence and the eavesdropping units of the Sixth Fleet.
In the meetings, some of which were held halfway between the border and Damascus, it was decided to create an atmosphere in Lebanon that would allow the Syrians to keep their forces in the country, while reassessing and ensuring lines of communication and logistics between Syria and the concentrations of Hezbollah and other Syrian supporters.
Hezbollah representatives and their Iranian supporters emphasized that without a continuous Syrian land connection from the Syrian border deep into Lebanon, the Hezbollah organization would not be able to operate in its current format, in which it operates in the south as a de facto state within a state. A similar concern was expressed by Syrian supporters in the northern port city of Tripoli, even though "their problem" is not critical in the eyes of Syrian intelligence and so because their situation is not the same as that of Hezbollah, which is in direct conflict with Israel.
According to various sources, the Iranians, who are the moral and economic support of Hezbollah, demanded from General Shaucht not to give in to the pressure led by the USA and emphasized that further submission to international pressure would not only weaken Syria's position but also harm Iran, which is in a diplomatic crisis due to the preparations to operate the nuclear reactor in Busheer The Iranians had no difficulty in convincing General Shaucht and Metha, even of the importance of what An Israeli intelligence officer, an expert on Syrian affairs, defined during a conversation with me the "Burma Road" which is the route of smuggling Arab volunteers from Lebanon through Syria to Iraq.
GTV has also learned that, parallel to the contacts in the Syria-Iran-Lebanon triangle, General Shaukat's men were engaged in pacifying guerrilla elements operating in Iraq, who fear that restrictions on the relationship between Lebanon and Syria will lead to restrictions on the relationship between them and the Syrians. From intelligence data held by the coalition headquarters in Baghdad, it appears that the Syrian-Iraqi border is currently a main transit and smuggling area, serving the rebels and terrorists, after the Saudis, Jordanians and Kuwaitis recorded several successes in preventing the passage of Arab volunteers who wanted to move to Iraq from their territory.
The dilemma facing the Syrians these days is how far their Lebanese supporters can be pushed into the streets. The historical experience of the Syrian presence in Lebanon, which began in 1977, taught Damascus that incorrect moves can drag the Syrian army into military operations, which even if they are defensive in general, will quickly turn into attacks and oblige Syria to stand clearly to the right of groups like Hezbollah.
The peace that has prevailed in Lebanon in recent years and the return of Beirut to the status of a city of entertainment and luxury, as well as the strengthening of the Lebanese army, have created an illusion of peace. The reality is that most organizations and parties continue to have militias, or a cadre of militias that may be called to the flag. These militias have at their disposal large quantities of light and medium weapons, which have been hidden since the mid-1980s. The socialist Druze leader Walid Jonblat, for example, who in recent years has moved from a pro-Syrian position to an opposition position, maintains a militia of about four thousand Druze fighters, ready to mobilize at an hours' notice. Other organizations, including Palestinian organizations affiliated with the PLO or outside it, maintain permanent militias, while the Maronite Christian camp, which has apparently lost much of its power, also maintains underground militias.
Colorful figures from the era of the civil war and after, for example Samir Jaja, the imprisoned Maronite leader of the "Lebanese forces" that were officially disbanded after Bashir Jumail's murder and the deterioration of the Christian camp is known to plan operations even from the prison. Leaflets, newspapers and websites of the "Lebanese forces" leave no doubt as to the readiness of the Maronites for the possibility of sliding into a new civil war.
Experts on Lebanese affairs estimate that in the coming weeks a situation may arise in the Cedar State in which the United States, the United Nations and Europe will have to ensure the safety and integrity of Lebanon also by sending an army that, as in the case of 1958 and the forgotten Eisenhower Doctrine, saw Marines landing on the coast of Beirut. Current contacts between Beirut to Washington and hourly reports suggest that it is still possible to achieve without fighting the "sacred goal" he set President Bush.
In the meantime, active activity has begun by the Arab League, dragged reluctantly into a conflict that is essentially Syrian-American. The Washington-Cairo axis is also working to find a solution, with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak acting as usual as a "regional mediator" operating mainly behind the scenes but also in the spotlight. The US obtained an Israeli promise that Israel would not interfere in what was happening and indeed most of Israel's leaders, contrary to their habit of reacting to everything and not always wisely, this time prefer to lower their tone.
An Israeli promise of restraint could change if General Shaukat, the Iranians and Hezbollah decide to heat up the Israeli border with Lebanon. Another move that is on the horizon and in the event of the border warming with Israel, is the purification of Hezbollah in the eyes of the Americans, contacts between the US and Hezbollah and the achievement of cooperation with the Shiites in exchange for a free IDF from the Mazaret Sheba'a area.
Meanwhile, while the intelligence-diplomatic activity is in full swing, the camps continue to organize demonstrations and make statements. Exaggerations such as "a million pro-Syrian protesters" who supposedly showed up in Beirut, continue to flourish and capture headlines even in Israeli newspapers, when the main lesson to be learned from modern Lebanese history is that one must fully differentiate between rhetoric and reality, which may attract many to the Lebanese mire.
