The report by the Pentagon's Military Intelligence Agency (DIA) on the strengthening of China, on its way to the status of a world power, does not include information from other intelligence sources, in the US or in other countries, which also indicate Chinese plans for domestic scientific-technological-military development, in addition to long-term procurement Beyond the term of the current administration in Washington
Yoram Mizrachi
The report by the Pentagon's Military Intelligence Agency (DIA) on the strengthening of China, on its way to the status of a world power, does not include information from other intelligence sources, in the US or in other countries, which also indicate Chinese plans for domestic scientific-technological-military development, in addition to long-term procurement Beyond the term of the current administration in Washington.
Experts on what is going on in China say that business is operating on the assumption that by 2020, probably an unofficial "target year" for upgrading the People's Army, the issue of Taiwan will come to a military or political decision. China is therefore looking forward to "an era beyond Taiwan" with ambitions to be an international strategic factor, with a permanent naval presence in areas beyond Asia as well as a presence in space. Data on China's naval and air force development initiatives, especially the ambition to equip themselves with nuclear patrol submarines, point to a long-term plan aimed at creating economic-strategic outposts, as close as possible to Europe, Asia, Africa and the American continent. All these with a permanent presence support in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
The prevailing assumption in the Pentagon and the State Department is that China's goal is supposedly to "eliminate the Taiwanese entity and rest" but this is nothing more than the result of a successful Chinese smoke screen, which, among other things, examines American commitment to protect three Asian countries that are important both regionally and globally. The three are Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, whose technological-industrial importance is on the rise and is not in doubt.
The regime in Beijing, which receives assessments of the geopolitical situation of the United States, estimates that ongoing phenomena such as the war in Iraq and Afghanistan and the economic and social problems "piling up" in America in general, will weaken Washington and bring to power less hawkish administrations than the Republicans in their current form. The non-unified strategic behavior of the West, under the leadership of Washington and Moscow's tendency to distance itself from the processes of international agreements born in the eighties and nineties of the last century, which led to the reduction of threats of world war, in addition to the process of increased rapprochement along the Moscow-Beijing axis, and Delhi-Beijing, contribute to the construction of a strategic Chinese perception - Globally, which arouses American concern.
While the Pentagon experts mainly point to the strengthening of the Chinese army numerically, with regard to its assessment in the three provinces deployed on the coast of the Gulf of Taiwan, other intelligence sources, who follow what is happening in China, say that the strengthening on the Taiwan front does not reflect a complete picture of the strength of the Chinese army, which includes two and a half million soldiers . The vast majority of the Chinese field units were not included in the upgrade plans and their functions were and remain mainly the defense of the communist regime through a wide deployment, covering all provinces of China, including assessments against the "good neighbor" Russia, also close to the former Soviet republics in Central Asia.
At this stage, China and Russia are focusing their efforts in the framework of persuading neighboring governments to give up American military presence in Central Asia, which began against the backdrop of the Afghanistan war. A retired senior Russian officer said in a recent academic discussion in Canada, "Every Chinese war game anticipates the possibility of conflict in several arenas at the same time, while basing itself on land as an aircraft carrier." This concept is reminiscent of a Russian strategy born after the dissolution of the USSR, according to which the Russian Ministry of Defense gave up on the development of a fleet of aircraft carriers. Today, the Russians prefer to rely on strategic nuclear submarines and open weapons designed for the mid-XNUMXs, from long-range guided missiles to modern bombers that will cover a "deficit" in aircraft matters. The Russian Navy has stopped the completion of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier sold to India, including two fighter squadrons equipped with the naval model of the superior fighter plane.
An important detail, which is missing from the report submitted these days to Congress and the heads of the Pentagon, is an analysis of the words of Chinese General Zhu Changhu, who warned that in the event of a war over the future of Taiwan, "China will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against the United States." The statement by a senior Chinese officer already today points to the capability of a Chinese nuclear threat aimed at the United States and the creation of a "balance of terror" between Beijing and Washington precisely at a time when the reconciliation procedures and strategic agreements between the United States and Russia entered a slow motion and, in the opinion of many, ran aground , which is largely reminiscent of the Cold War.
The lack of a strong American response according to General Changhu was received in Beijing as proof that the US will not fight for Taiwan or its neighbors, what's more the US economy is becoming day by day even more dependent on China and especially on the cheap labor force of the 1 year old country. 2 billion inhabitants.
General Changhu said what he said with the clear knowledge that at the moment China is vulnerable and exposed to weapons of mass destruction. More than six hundred million Chinese, the economic backbone of the country, live in thirty-seven urban centers with a size of one million inhabitants and dozens more important urban centers, with a population of half a million to one million people in each.
In order to protect all of these, China is working, in concert with Russia, to disrupt the global anti-missile defense program initiated by the US related to the development of a "Military Space Command". Land and sea space approves the deployment of a defense network using a variety of missiles from interceptor missiles to "laser cannons" and even "solar energy cannons" which is the cornerstone of the American plan.
One of the most important lessons learned in China is the change in President Putin's strategic concept in Russia, as evident in the last two years, including Moscow's return to accelerated military development, upgrading forces and promoting its military and economic influence on all continents. In the field of global influence, Russia operates on two main paths - vigorous penetration of the Western energy market and arms sales to anyone interested, in clear competition with the military industries in the West and especially the United States. Russian arms deals with the Air Force of Thailand or with Indonesia, Malaysia, Greece, Turkey, Poland and more are recorded at an increased rate, all of these in addition to Russia's traditional cooperation with India.
The Chinese concept includes, among other things, "theory of imitation" starting with piracy of entertainment diskettes and personal electronic components, up to copying sophisticated equipment of all kinds. The method saves huge R&D time and expenses. The copying is based on an advertising layout that penetrates every detail of the global scientific and technological picture. One of the jokes related to this situation is that in the past Moscow used to imitate products of the western aviation industry, for example the supersonic passenger plane, which was designed to compete with the French and British product "Concorde" and mockingly called "Concordesky". As a hint to imitate American aviation products of the "Boeing" concern.
Beijing's main military connection is with Russia, the most important supplier of military intelligence and knowledge for China's defense. Washington's attempts, as expressed by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who sought to convince European countries, led by France, to continue the embargo imposed on China in 1989 following the student suppression crisis in Tien-en-Main Square (including pressure on Israel to end military trade relations with Bisi ´Ng). In his protest, Rumsfeld did not bother to mention the Pentagon report and the American fear of the rise of China. All these and more do not affect Chinese military development procedures and have no decisive effect on the military relationship between Beijing and Moscow, as was reflected in the recent meetings between the leaders of Russia and China that included huge agreements in the field of transportation, energy, military openness, border security and more. On July 20, against the background of the Pentagon report, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld complained "that Russia is helping to arm China" and again this time he used the worn diplomatic coin "that China suppresses democracy" and so on.
Several examples of Chinese interest in Russian military development up to the possible target year of 2020 include an assessment that China is willing to participate in financing Russian military development, including "shaking off" old plans to transform the Russian Air Force with modern and revolutionary equipment, including extremely long-range, Mach 3-plus bombers and the ability to "stealth". The irony related to this is that some of the necessary funds for the Sino-Russian cooperation come from the strengthening of the Chinese economy at the expense of the American market, which in many respects transferred entire production lines and mainly consumer products, popular electronics and even administrative services to China and other third world countries.
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