Two people died from a mysterious virus. While the mass media announce that this is the end of the world, epidemiologist Keren Landesman puts us in the correct proportions
What does it take to get two records out of me in three days?
Good that you asked!
Such an article, for example This article is very loosely based on An article published in the Daily Mail. Not exactly the splendor of a journalistic work or a serious scientific reference. Despite this, at least three people today asked me what I think about her, some out of fear that I know something that they don't.
For those who don't go to news websites, here is the article and the more scientific analysis, courtesy of an epidemiology specialist whose main hobbies are infectious diseases and the end of the world (hint - it's me):
Infectious disease experts warn that a deadly virus transmitted to humans from animals is expected to spread throughout the world and may wipe out humanity in the next five years. According to them, the dangerous virus that will cause an epidemic was discovered in bats in Asia and has already caused the death of a number of people around the world.
Who's who?
I speculate that the new and deadly virus described in this paragraph is the new coronavirus, which has so far only been detected in two people. There is a coronavirus that was isolated in bats, but it is not the same virus, but simply from the same family. SARS is also from the same family. Even viruses that do nothing but colds are from the same family. That's how it is in families - some are more successful and some are less successful.
Also, logical failure in 3…2….1…
According to the report in the British "Daily Mail", the warning of the experts, some of whom are world-renowned, came following a number of deaths caused by an unidentified virus in recent months. In July, a Saudi man died of an unidentified virus. Last month, a 38-year-old British resident who returned from his brother's wedding in Afghanistan was pronounced dead. According to the doctors at the "Royal Ferry" hospital in London, he died due to an infection caused by an outbreak of a virus that entered his body through ticks.
This is the second time that "world-renowned experts" are mentioned. This is a known logical fallacy of Unidentified experts, which belongs to the family of "appeal to authority" failures. Experts are quoted without a name, a relevant reference or some way to locate the quote (and thanks Laurie Lifshitz thanks to whom I learned about logical failures).
The Saudi man died of a coronavirus that was detected within days of his arrival at the hospital, as I told you right away On my blog, so it is difficult for me to refer to him as "unidentified".
The infection that entered the body of the second man that entered his body through ticks is called Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever virus, which is a very long and scary name, but it is a very common viral disease in Afghanistan, where the man came from. Pay attention to the surprising phenomenon - when someone visits another country, he may get a disease there! And if he returns home - he may continue to be sick at home, even if the home is in Glasgow. People are not magically cured when they cross the Greenwich Line.
That same month, a Qatari national was hospitalized in London because he was suffering from a severe cough and difficulty breathing. At first, the doctors thought that these were symptoms of the Sars virus, but after diagnosing the results of the blood tests, they determined that it was a "horribly virulent infection that has never been seen in the world of medicine", and ruled out the hypothesis that the Sars virus is the cause of the disease in humans.
Guess what this poisonous and dangerous virus is? Yes, yes, exactly the same coronavirus from the previous paragraph. It is true that several days passed until there was an identification that surely linked the two cases, but from here to the panic in this paragraph the distance is great. Not only that, there is no citation of the doctors who treated the patient in the original Daily Mail article. This quote is just a sentence to raise panic in the Daily Mail article, but bringing it in quotation marks that imply a real person who said the things is... somewhat problematic.
These cases were joined by several other cases in which people suffered from deadly symptoms unknown to doctors around the world. Following the cases, scientists from the World Health Protection Agency investigated the cases and processed the data with innovative technological means to try and compile a profile of the mysterious virus. The researchers' conclusion was that the origin of the virus is not in humans, but in animals.
Will it surprise everyone if I say that this paragraph does not appear in this form in the original report? I thought so.
But let's focus on one sentence for a moment, just for fun. "Humans suffered from deadly symptoms unknown to doctors around the world."
news flash! New diseases are discovered every day, but the range of possible symptoms is very small. We have a limited amount of organs and a limited amount of symptoms that those organs can produce. The fact that the patients developed renal failure in the new disease does not mean that it is an unrecognized fatal symptom. This is a very familiar symptom associated with many diseases, from Ebola to diabetes. It's just a new disease.
According to the experts who studied the virus, the symptoms that characterize its outbreak are headache, high fever, joint pain, abdominal pain and vomiting. According to them, when the disease progresses, the patients may develop large areas of bleeding and uncontrolled hemorrhages in their body.
Who manages to identify the unrecognized disease? Hurry hurry…
Yes! It is a hemorrhagic fever, a relative of Ebola, Our long time friend, the favorite of the blog and one of the deadliest diseases in the world. These symptoms are not at all related to the coronavirus that causes cough, respiratory failure and kidney failure.
But that's not what bothers me. What bothers me is the reason why the hemorrhagic fever is mentioned so close to the coronavirus - this is again a bad translation, and this time also stupid. 668 words after the coronavirus, almost a page and a half later, the Daily Mail mentions that a few weeks ago a team of researchers published a molecular study it conducted on a new virus that causes hemorrhagic fever in the Congo. But as far as whoever translated is concerned - it's the same virus, you can continue as usual.
Experts on the spread of diseases around the world claim that the density of the population in the world and the transitions of humans from region to region, combined with the intrusion of humans into the territories of various animals, allow any new strain of virus to pass from "pigs in Africa to humans in the West". Therefore, any new virus may spread rapidly throughout the world.
Following the logical fallacy of the unidentified experts, I did the complicated journalistic work of accessing the original article and checking who these experts were. one of them is Professor John Oxford, an expert in virology from Queen Murray Hospital, which is attached to the University of London. His warning, according to the Daily Mail, is that within five years we are likely to encounter a new epidemic. From here the path was simple - to go look for the source.
But there is no source. Nowhere, except in the Daily Mail and the "Doomsday" websites, is there a reference to the source where Prof. Oxford specifically says that the next epidemic will destroy humanity within five years. He has published several articles in recent years regarding the influenza pandemic and other viral diseases, but the five-year issue is not mentioned anywhere. oh well
The second expert mentioned in the article, by the way, is a writer named David Quaman. Not that there's a problem with that, but I wouldn't exactly refer to one misquoted researcher and author as "world-renowned experts in the field", especially without specifying the field.
Just for general knowledge, globalization does cause diseases to spread faster, and really any disease can reach anywhere on the globe, but from here until the five-year sentence...
moment! Where exactly does it say that we have five years left according to this article?
So that's it. that as part of the translation cuts, this part was also omitted. Prof. Oxford points out that we haven't had a good pandemic (worldwide epidemic) in a long time, so it's time for one to arrive. This is a common belief among some historians of disease. Most of them do not specify a clear number, but some state that once every few years a plague comes that wipes out most of the human race.
But no self-respecting scientist puts forth an exact number for the destruction of humanity, for exactly the same reason no self-respecting scientist predicts when we'll have a flying car, an hoverboard, or a working time machine. The only ones who stick to dates are engineers with complicated algorithms who give them an approximate date (eg the estimated date for the completion of the Ayalon routes) or journalists who need to sell headlines.
I'm not holding a crystal ball, but let me join the wave of gloomy predictions - we're all going to die! really. in 70-150 years. Who is willing to write about me in the newspaper?
As we know, today's news is used to wrap tomorrow's fish. Health sections in the online press don't even get to wrap the pixels of tomorrow. And it's a shame for me, because by the time infectious diseases finally star in the newspaper, they receive treatment that a type 7 star was not willing to endure. Only the infectious diseases don't have a publicist to call to yell at the newspaper owners.
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For the expansion of the mind, David Bowie.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=louXPUW7tHU
55 תגובות
An expensive foundation
Regardless of the content of the article... pay attention to your Hebrew. At the beginning of the article there are many wording and grammar mistakes... someone should go over each article and proofread it before it is published.
Ten years have passed and we are still here, everything is good
I want a date!! I've been reading for 5 years now!!
So actually this is an article about fayknews not about medicine or an epidemic or a virus.. if I understand correctly
Noise for attitude and views + the greed of the human race and then another religion/control system appeared, what did you think would happen? Total humanity that repeats itself
In the end, every person born dies, humanity is here for a short time, and it will destroy itself before a virus destroys it
I hope Keren that you eat your hat now and regret the mocking and condescending tone. Corona virus is indeed dangerous and Daily Mail amazingly they were not so wrong. How fun that the internet remembers everything
Clumsy writing. Hard to follow. spoils the message. What was the message actually? that the press distorts reality in order to sell another headline or another click, or to push a political agenda.
The spirits of the summer computers swelled
"In the arms race between the doctors and the bacteria, the doctors will eventually run faster. New diseases and epidemics appear mainly as a result of random mutations in the genomes of bacteria and viruses, which change their properties and allow them to jump from animals to humans, or to deal more successfully with the human immune system and Medicines such as antibiotics. Although the rate of appearance of new mutations has probably accelerated recently due to the changes that man himself creates in the world, but in competition with medicine, The bacteria ultimately depend on the hand of luck. Doctors, however, do not rely solely on luck. Although randomness plays a significant role in science, doctors are not content to throw various substances into the test and hope that the hand of chance will produce a new vaccine The human body, the bacteria and the laws of biology, in order to intelligently plan new and more effective treatments. Every year doctors have more knowledge at their disposal and more reliable, so there is good reason to believe that medical treatment is improving at a faster rate than the rate of appearance of new diseases. The bacteria of the year 2050 will probably be more threatening and resistant than those of 2015, but the drugs of the year 2050 will probably be much more sophisticated."
From Yuval Noah Harari's book The History of Tomorrow. Written before the outbreak of the Corona epidemic.
Beyond the endless stirring about the virus, maybe we'll calm down a little, love a little, get angry less, smile more, and yes, the reason for my response, there are horrifying spelling errors by children in the first grade that are not keyboard errors, go dance a tango waltz, go sing a song that spread love to the family, children, adults, to the world. Mother Earth is angry with us,
Knowing how to make do with what you have will help you virus excavations.
The existence of the world is compared to the days of the week
From the fact that the seventh millennium of his existence is likened to a holy Sabbath
in which you enter a state of rest for
new week …
Some say that we are a little before the seventh millennium... it is what it is and maybe it is good that it is so
Diseases, climate crisis, running after a war nuclear and more... there is no shortage of symptoms
It took more than five years - and in the meantime (at least for the time being) not all humanity was extinct (tapu tapu, no evil eye) - but in the end we learned that sometimes it's worth listening to the kinds of warnings and warnings that can spoil our mood, and don't go well with our rosy ambitions...
By the way, I predict that the continued control and settlement of the territories where approximately 2.6 million Palestinian Arabs currently live will lead to the elimination of the Jewish state and its transformation into a bi-national hell state that will end up falling under Islamist rule within 25 years... Who is ready to listen???...
The viruses are signaling to humanity to immediately stop with the madness of globalization and return to a sane life, everyone under our vine and under our fig tree.
Funny that it finally happened. I wonder if Bibi will end up going to jail or if we, the citizens, will go to jail?!
Everything is true, only where it is left, which is needed.
In short people...
The last thing left to do is believe in God
And of course we were right to wait for the Messiah who will come soon in our day amen
Scientific proof that prophecy was given to fools
No wonder they knew about the corona virus in 2012. This is a whole and diverse family of viruses
So they say there will be a virus that will wipe out humanity, so why don't we do anything and just talk? What's the point of a prophecy if you don't do everything possible to delay it or stop it? It is intended to warn and not lie and that it will be too late! If a focus of a new epidemic is discovered, then the area must be isolated and fought there and so that it does not spread, what happened with the corona must not happen again! The earth has gone through 5 mass extinctions, there is no point in waiting for the sixth one when it is us who will become extinct, efforts should be made to prevent it, don't you think?
Come on, with all the speculations of the "wise men" they have exaggerated. At the same time, we must wake up about nature and the environment, that we humans pollute the world and then cry about why we got it
Also in 2025 a new virus will arrive. 10 times stronger and deadlier than the corona. And if the 5 women do not disappear from the epidemic in another 5 years... it will happen two years later.
The world goes by express train to this place.
The earth is tired of us, who are corrupting it.
An excellent article that shows that the scientists' predictions eight years ago were well-founded and solid. Globalization, urbanization and the explosion of the population were a major factor in the 2020 epidemic. If the lockdown had not been practiced there would indeed have been a serious extinction.
There are many types of corona, so yes even in 2012 they knew about it.
She herself writes that a coronavirus was isolated in bats and she does not write about it at all..considering it a virus that does not pass to humans
What is written in the Daily Mail should be taken with limited credence, it is yellow newspapers and it is of a very mediocre level. And the chances are that any professor who respects himself will not want to be interviewed by this newspaper. There is a situation that humanity will go through revolutions. All the "prophets" predict the future after an epidemic breaks out and not before.
Corona 2020, they were right, we just hope that Dabeuf will be more optimistic in XNUMX
So many sarcastic jabs and disdain, I can't read a whole paragraph.
Isn't it strange that in 2012 they knew about the corona virus?
You must be eating your hat right now
I don't believe it, but everything is possible in this life.
Ahh
h first
? kol kashe lichtov bivrit
Writing style and level of an undeveloped high school student. And David Bowie "to expand the soul"? So let me tell you something. Actually leave, you won't understand anyway.
Herzl
The odds are not as low as it seems.
At the same airport in Cleveland, there are constantly Israelis returning to Israel who work in the medical field. I mean, it is quite possible that there are Israelis who were in contact with that sister who is sick with Ebola.
Karen - thanks for the article.
I agree that there is a bit of panic and there are newspapers that try to fuel the panic for commercial reasons. But even if the risk of Ebola (or another virus) spreading to us is low, the damage to human life and the economy can be enormous.
One person who arrived in Nigeria sick with Ebola and was diagnosed with blue when he landed at the airport made about 20 people sick, and 150 people were needed to work full time until the epidemic was stopped. And they were very lucky that the man was spotted at the airport!
So because of the huge risk, you have to prepare seriously even if the statistical chance is low.
Well, we talk about Iran all day and real estate bubbles and social protests.
I'm going to the sea - if it's the end of the world, then in style!
: )
I loved the article mocking all "Doomsday" fans of all kinds.
Yet.
It's a shame you didn't add another chapter, in which an attempt is made to describe an event of mass infection, possible, future: how soon will the virus be detected? How can the continuation of such an epidemic be stopped? How long can protection be produced? Which countries today are able to deal with such events, and more.
It will also be scary and interesting, but serious consideration will make a difference.
Thanks for making sense 🙂
I didn't even read the article to the end. Let's assume that it is true and the end of the world is close in a few years, the question arises who will say to whom the immortal sentence "I told you so", and who will it help?
I liked the article...
Interesting article, thanks! Mainly in light of the fact that some seek publicity through intimidation, because of the fear of dying and disappearing without being heard of.
Danish,
Even more impressive:
https://www.hayadan.org.il/the-evolutionary-difference-between-a-man-and-a-wrist-watch-0907101/
Hey, what do you think about the following impressive claim?:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOaYz7v2PfY
impressive!
Great article. Cynical, amusing and macabre to the max. Oh, and you also gave the impression that you know what you're talking about (a rare thing these days). Following the article and the above I have a question: are you married?
There are many deadly viruses that can wipe out most of the population
They are somewhere in locked safes at Biosafety Level 4 waiting for judgment day.
So much dark sarcasm and cynicism in one article... You must be surrounded by very stupid and very important people in your everyday life.
Anyway, I enjoyed reading it.
I learned a long time ago not to take unnecessarily seriously what is reported in the news (especially the Israeli one) regarding "epidemics" and "the end of the world".
An excellent response to an amateur article, which found publication even on the news site of
nana —-> http://news.nana10.co.il/Article/?ArticleID=930683
In connection with the article, I wanted to refine a number of things you mentioned in your review:
1.) First, not all cold viruses originate from the Corona family (Coronaviridae). For example, the main cause of colds, the influenza virus, belongs to the orthomyxoviridae family. And there is also the parainfluenza, which belongs to the Paramyxoviridae family along with RSV, Nipavirus and Hendravirus. And let's not forget the rhinoviruses from the Picorana family, to which the polio virus also belongs, and of course the respiratory adenoviruses.
2). The virus that causes the aforementioned disease is called: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus and it belongs to the Bunyaviridae family, while the Ebola virus belongs to the Filoviridae family, with its relative being the Marburgvirus.
Excellent 🙂
Excellent article.
In addition, David Bowie's music video is very appropriate.
They missed a bit
31/12/2012 was supposed to be the end of the world - according to the Incas 🙂
But it is possible that long before there will be a nuclear World War III here
check if the virus is not man-made
It's a shame that there is no clear separation between the excerpts quoted from the article and your response to them.
Popular Science has a really interesting article on the subject, although a bit more optimistic and also more serious:
http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2012-08/out-wild
Surely in a little while the issue in which this article was published will also be published in Hebrew and then maybe they will publish it here on the site in Mila...
Beautifully written, I liked it