Analysis of observations from 2005 to 2023 indicates a “failed supernova”: core collapse into a black hole, ejection of outer layers, creation of dust and infrared glow that could remain visible for decades to come
An international team of astronomers has captured a rare case where a massive star reached the end of its life cycle without exploding in a spectacular supernova. Instead, the star faded and almost completely disappeared from the visible spectrum, leaving behind a faint infrared signature that is interpreted as evidence that the star's core collapsed directly into a black hole.
The study, published in the scientific journal Science on February 12, 2026, constitutes the most comprehensive observational documentation to date of the "quiet birth" of a black hole from a massive star – a theoretical scenario that has been discussed in the scientific literature for decades, but has rarely been observed in practice until now.
Star details and research
The star, designated M31-2014-DS1 in the scientific catalog, is located in the Andromeda Galaxy about 2.5 million light-years from our solar system. The research team was led by Dr. Kishalay De of the Flatiron Institute, a research division of the Simons Foundation, andHe published his findings in the journal Science..
Observations: Brightening in the infrared followed by a sharp decline until almost complete disappearance
The research team combined recent observations with over a decade of archival data collected between 2005 and 2023, including measurements from NASA's NEOWISE project and other telescopes around the world.
According to published data, in 2014, the star's infrared radiation significantly increased. Later, around 2016, the star began to fade at an extraordinary rate – within a period of only about a year – to a brightness level much lower than its original brightness. Observations made in 2022-2023 revealed an even more extreme picture: in the visible and near-infrared ranges, the star "almost completely disappeared," becoming ten thousand times fainter in these wavelengths than in its previous state. Today, it can be detected mainly in the mid-infrared range, and even there with a significantly lower radiation intensity than in the past.
Why is this phenomenon so unusual??
In a typical case of a massive star collapsing, researchers expect to observe a supernova phenomenon – a huge energetic explosion that illuminates the cosmic environment with extraordinary intensity. In the current case, no characteristic spectral signature of a supernova was detected, and the overall observational pattern is consistent with the theoretical scenario of a “failed supernova”: the star’s core collapses under its own weight, but the resulting shock wave fails to blow out the layers of the envelope with sufficient force to produce a classic supernova.
The physical process: collapse, thermal convection, dust formation, and prolonged radiation
The researchers describe a multi-stage and complex process. In the first stage, when the massive star reaches the end of the nuclear fusion cycle in its core – that is, it “runs out of nuclear fuel” – the delicate balance between the internal thermal pressure that tries to hold the star’s structure together and the gravitational force that pulls all the material inward is broken. As a result, the core collapses in on itself.
In many situations, a core collapse produces a huge stream of neutrinos that help lift an energetic shock wave and ignite a supernova. However, in some scenarios, the shock wave is not powerful enough, and material continues to fall inward until a black hole forms.
Here, the researchers emphasize a central physical component: the phenomenon of convection in the layers of the outer mantle. Convection results from large temperature differences between different regions – hot material rises and cold material descends, and the gases in the mantle move and swirl in complex motions.
According to the theoretical models on which the study is based, this turbulent thermal motion causes a significant portion of the material in the mantle to not fall directly in after the core collapse, but to align itself into rotational orbits around the new black hole due to angular momentum. The result is a relatively slow process of feeding the black hole (accretion), which lasts for many years.
At the same time, some of the layers of the stellar envelope are ejected outward. As the ejected material moves away from the center of the star and cools, it can condense and form cosmic dust. The dust plays two roles: on the one hand, it obscures the hotter interior, and on the other hand, it heats up due to radiation from the interior and emits electromagnetic radiation in the infrared range. This creates the infrared "halo" that remains visible long after the star itself is barely detectable at shorter wavelengths.
The researchers note that this infrared glow is expected to remain detectable for decades with the sensitivity of advanced telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope, since it fades at a relatively slow rate. The team also provides a quantitative estimate: only about 1 percent of the total mass of the original envelope gas is actually feeding the black hole and sustaining the radiation observed today, but this amount is enough to create a long-lasting and measurable infrared "signature."
Scientific significance: "Golden model" for understanding black hole formation without a supernova
Black holes are well-known cosmic objects that have been studied for decades, but the moment of their physical formation from a star – especially in cases where there is no accompanying supernova – has hardly been observed until now.
In this case, for the first time, there is a combination of long-term observational data, a sharp and well-documented decay, and continued infrared emission that is consistent with detailed physical models. In addition, the researchers use this case to reinterpret another famous candidate for a "failed supernova", known as NGC 6946-BH1, and strengthen the hypothesis that this is not a one-off anomaly, but a whole family of similar events occurring in the universe.
More broadly, this phenomenon also affects important statistical questions in astronomy: if a significant proportion of massive stars do not explode as supernovae but "quietly disappear," this could explain statistical discrepancies between the rate of massive star formation and the number of observed supernovae. This insight could also change scientific estimates of the number of black holes formed in each generation of stars in the universe.
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Thanks for the article, Avi. The topic is interesting, and the presentation is colorful and lively.