polymarket

A forecast based on the wisdom of crowds. Illustration: Dr. Roy Tsezana using artificial intelligence

Why prediction markets like Polymarket are successful in predicting – and what the surge in betting on Iran means

From 19th-century election bets, through the DARPA experiment and internal prediction markets at Google and Ford, to the idea of ​​“futurarchy”: This is how the “wisdom of crowds” translates into probabilistic prices