The United Nations has declared the swine flu as a level 6 epidemic.Roey Tsezana declares that it is actually one of the best epidemics that have come to the world
Everyone has their little pleasures in life. Some relax in front of the television at the end of the day, others enjoy experimenting with cooking and foods. I enjoy cooking (but less enjoy eating the products), yet my real pleasure is coming home in the evening from a tiring day's work. Then, as soon as I walk through the door, before I hug my partner, taste the dinner or step on the cat's tail - I first turn off the cell phone.
But what to do when sometimes plans go wrong?
And so I entered the house last night, and made my mistake - I stepped on the cat even before I pressed the prominent red button. And while I'm trying to scrape the furry monster from the ceiling with a broomstick, the same cheerful tune that heralds the return to the work routine at eight in the evening has already been heard in the room.
– Roy? Hello, Simcha is speaking. I heard that swine flu has been declared a level 6 epidemic. Do I have anything to worry about?
Sorry, where did you get that number from?
– My grandson studied biology with you and said you like to talk about diseases. Well, then what's the problem? And what is all this wailing? do you have a baby at home
No, the cat is sensitive to pain. But you know, Simha, you really have nothing to fear from the swine flu. You personally are at a fairly low risk level. So if you don't mind, I would be very happy to continue talking with you tomorrow and...
- Wait, I don't understand. Doesn't the flu specifically affect old people?
Well... Look, Simcha, how old are you? sixty? seventy? So if that's the case, you're already in a good position, if the swine flu breaks out in Israel at its peak. Normal flu mainly affects old people, it's true, but the rules of the game change with swine flu. We are still not sure why, but it affects young people the most. In the United States, about 57% of the reported cases of swine flu occurred in people between the ages of 5 and 24. More than forty percent of the people who are hospitalized as a result of the disease come from that age group. Besides, the hospitalization rates in hospitals as a result of the disease are the highest precisely in children under the age of five, and immediately after them the highest level of hospitalization is for young people up to the age of 24.
- So I have nothing to fear?
In any case of a mass epidemic there is something to fear. Although at your age you are not in the risk group, it is better for you not to host a young person with the disease in your home, especially at this time. But as I already said - you are actually in a good situation. It's the young people who should be really worried.
- Wait, so I should be afraid for my grandson?
Not even that necessarily. The fact that swine flu has been declared now at level 6 does not make it any more deadly than it was. In fact, the levels of infection that the World Health Organization gives to diseases do not describe the severity of the disease, but only how widespread it is in the world, and how easy it is to spread. The World Health Organization basically stated what everyone already knew: that swine flu is currently in most of the inhabited world, that it can be passed from person to person, and that it will likely be with us for a good few months, if not years.
- Well, and that doesn't worry you?
Yes and no. No one likes the fact that there is a new virus in the world infecting people with a new type of flu. But let's face it - until now this flu has made more headlines than actual damage. The virus is currently raging mainly in the United States, and so far more than 13,000 cases of infection have been reported there. Of all those infected, only 27 died. In other words, it is a mortality rate of 0.2%. With all the identification with the families of the dead, we must admit that this is an extremely low mortality rate. For comparison, every year in the United States between thirty and fifty thousand people die as a result of infection with the common flu. In the great influenza pandemic of 1918, the estimated mortality rate was between 10 and 20 percent. Compared to the flu of 1918, swine flu is really a marginal epidemic. Although the swine flu started off as particularly deadly in Mexico, it seems to have 'lowered its profile' in the western world. We're not sure why yet, but that's the way it is.
- And what about all that they say, that the swine flu could wipe out humanity?
Who says that?
– Sima and Kanin, a witch.
Oh, so it probably won't happen. Besides, if you ask me, we should be thankful for the swine flu. She may yet save the world.
- Walla?
Prefer Wi-Fi. Look, Simcha, humanity has enough bullets in the barrel, even without the swine flu. Iran is now working in full swing to develop a nuclear capability. North Korea probably already has several nuclear bombs, and if a hair there falls on the wrong side, half the world is going to be eating radioactive fallout for decades to come. In Africa, six percent of people have AIDS, and the disease just continues to gain momentum. Greenhouse gases cause global warming, which leads to the melting of the poles and a change in the global climate that may lead to droughts and mass starvation. The phenomenon of desertification consumes the areas where food plants can be grown. Fishermen are depleting the population of large fish and marine food, but the number of hungry mouths is only increasing. Our factories and mines release huge amounts of toxic substances into rivers and seas. At the current rate, sooner or later, we will suffocate on our own by-products."
- and that's it?
I wish Deri is about to return to political life.
- Walla?
Shops The swine flu isn't going to eliminate all of these problems, but the one thing it does successfully do is get all the countries in the world talking to each other. Especially now that it has been declared a level 6 epidemic, countries from all over the world should consult with each other on how to stop the epidemic, agree on joint inspection procedures at airports and ports, move shipments of vaccines and medicines and, in general, reach agreements that are acceptable to all, in order to stop an epidemic that is attacking the world. And this is exactly the way to deal with most of the world's problems today - talk, debate and understand that agreements need to be reached, or we will all be drowned together on this planet. So maybe the swine flu won't save the world, but it encourages another step in the right direction, towards collective action by most countries in the world. who knows Perhaps in a hundred years, swine flu will be remembered as an event that made all countries talk to each other, just as World War II led to the founding of the United Nations.
- Walla?
"Bye. Come on, Simcha, we'll talk tomorrow if you want."
disconnection You can rest.
"Roi," my partner calls me from the next room, "my mother called. She wants to know if she has anything to fear from the swine flu. Something with grade 6. It's urgent."
The cat screams and jumps to the ceiling again. Someone stepped on her tail again. It's going to be a long night.
More on the subject on the science website
20 תגובות
Roy, there is no need to reduce birthrates - Europe is annihilating itself, China is annihilating itself - of course only in terms of birthrates. This is enough so that even in the next hundred years the resources on this sphere will be enough for us.
Sima and Kanin, a witch is the name of a movie.
Your comment about Deri was out of place and also about Mrs. Sima Vakanin, the "witch"
point,
Yes, I saw it now as well. I guess the reason for the difference is that it is case-fatality. That is, in reports on disease cases that have been examined in depth. It is possible that in these cases, the medical treatment was more successful and more extensive than most people in the world received.
In any case, although this does not change the point of the article, I will correct accordingly. Thank you and Moran for your attention.
A successful and interesting week,
Roy.
------
my new blog - Another science
Roy, thank you for the detailed answer.
By the way, the link you provided shows that the death rate was over 2.5%, and more precisely, 50 million out of 500 million, which is 10%
Moran,
I do not falsify data. The figure about 2.5% mortality from the 1918 flu was taken directly from the website of the Center for Epidemic Control and Prevention in the United States. You are welcome to look at the link to the website, and if you find that it says something else, please let me know.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm
Roy.
------
my new blog - Another science
biological:
I don't know where you get the data from, I take it from the English Wikipedia:
The pandemic lasted from March 1918 to June 1920,[3] spreading even to the Arctic and remote Pacific islands. It is estimated that anywhere from 50 to 100 million people were killed worldwide,[4][5] or the approximate equivalent of one third of the population of Europe.[6][7][8] An estimated 500 million people, one third of the world's population (approximately 1.6 billion at the time), became infected.[5]
The global mortality rate from the 1918/1919 pandemic is not known, but it is estimated that 10% to 20% of those who were infected died.
Moran,
Roy was right about that. The death rate from the disease! was about 2.5%. It was also the death rate of the entire world population, because about 98% of the world's population was infected with the virus.
Roy:
There is a serious mistake in the article:
"In the great flu epidemic of 1918, the mortality rate reached 2.5%."
Well, according to the beginning of that paragraph, and according to the accepted meaning of the phrase "mortality rate", it can be understood as if 2.5% of those people *who contracted* the Spanish flu died from it.
But of course this is not the case - 2.5% is the ratio of the people who died from the Spanish flu out of the entire population of the planet!!
*The mortality rate* as understood from the paragraph in which the sentence appears is: 10% - 20%!!!
(That means 10-20 percent of the people who contracted the disease died from it - which is a huge mortality rate!)
I really hope that the mistake was due to confusion and lack of attention, because if not it just shows that even scientists know how to twist facts and insert inaccuracies into the article when it works for the line they want to prove - then they are no better than journalists.
In any case, the example of the Spanish flu does not fit that paragraph because it weakens the argument that the writer came to prove.
Yogev,
Thanks, I'm glad you enjoyed it.
Stu,
The fear is indeed still there, but it has always been there with the flu virus. We'll just have to deal with it.
point,
There are many conspiracy theories about it. Some claim that the pharmaceutical companies created the virus to increase their profits. Others claim that it is the product of the American government. The main point they all have in common is that scientists created the virus through genetic engineering, and this is a very weak point for several reasons:
1. It's unpleasant to admit, but we simply don't understand what makes the flu virus more or less contagious. There are some leads, but nothing close enough to re-engineer a flu virus to be both infectious to humans and virulent (lethal). So even if we had a mad scientist with mad research assistants, he simply didn't have the tools to pull off such a plot.
2. Another option is to create an improved virus through organism-to-organism transmission, so that it becomes more deadly with each generation, and hopefully more contagious as well. Theoretically, I suppose a mad scientist could have created a deadly and contagious bird flu virus by passing it from bird to bird, but it was a virus only contagious to birds (the kind that already exists in nature anyway). To do the same thing in humans, you need a large population of humans in which the virus can be released, and take into account that it simply will not return to the laboratory. Don't forget that you also need to introduce mutations in the virus first, or genetically engineer it in some random way. To put it mildly, the chances of success of this strategy are similar to throwing stones one on top of the other, and getting a cathedral in a reasonable time.
3. The supporters of the conspiracy theory claim that the virus could not have been created on its own, because it consists of a combination of influenza viruses coming from several species in the world - the swine flu and the bird flu from America, the European and Asian swine flu and the human flu. But we know of other cases in history where viruses were created Mixed flu of birds, pigs and humans, as in the nineties in England they are simple Were not virulent enough or contagious enough to make the same noise that swine flu does now. As for the distance between continents - that is covered by airplanes, ships and the transfer of animals between continents. And that's not even mentioning the fact that birds can carry the Influence from continent to continent.
In conclusion, although a bird flu conspiracy theory cannot be ruled out (just as a conspiracy theory can never be ruled out), all the signs show that we do not have the engineering and scientific ability to create more contagious flu viruses, and that such viruses can be created - and have already been created - in nature and in pens even without the help of humans the science
Shabbat Shalom,
Roy.
------
my new blog - Another science
Roy,
A funny article that conveys a message in a pleasant way 🙂
Roy interesting blog article.
What about the plausibility of the conspiracy theories that talk about a laboratory virus?
To Roy:
The blog article is interesting.
The fear has indeed been misplaced, but it is still clouding and exists on the horizon, viruses are able to undergo transformation in the host, the host, and therefore it is only a matter of time, until a new and dangerous type arrives and is created.
To my father: there is no fear in eating pork, my motives for being personally disgusted by this animal stem from personal experience
I once worked in a livestock farm with 4-5 pigs, this animal eats everything, it's kind of a garbage can, it eats everything, vegetables, fruits + carcasses of dead animals (chicks, chickens, etc.) in addition to normal food called manure mix. A mixture in thicker and wider grains that give livestock fodder. My memory with this repulsive animal, was at the time one day when I was working on the Bowzer rabbit farm and there was a sick rabbit, the owner of the farm without any sentiments said to throw it to the pigs. I thought to Tommy well he will die there and then they will eat him. The way I put him he gave the squeal of life the pigs pounced on him tore him to pieces while he was still alive and ate his flesh. I was in the market, and since then not anymore.
charming,
According to Prof. Jared Diamond, who has devoted most of his adult life to the study of the Earth and the people who live on it, humanity can exist at its current rate (and maybe even a little more), if we only act correctly, reduce our consumption habits and take the right steps to reduce the birth rate , for recycling and proper farming. There is no need for some kind of super-pandemic, which will cut down some of the human beings. You just have to come up with the right rules, and make sure people follow them.
biological,
You are right - I should have compared percentages to percentages. However, it is worth emphasizing that swine flu is a relatively new disease, and we do not know all its symptoms or its level of severity very well. I have the feeling that some patients with the disease only received it in a mild form, did not suspect that it was the swine flu and did not even go to the family doctor to be examined. This suspicion is supported by the fact that level 6 indicates infection among the global population, but many people have been infected even without coming into contact with travelers or immigrants from other countries. So how did the virus get to them? It probably came through the general population, and through people who carried the virus without even being aware that they had the disease. In short, I believe that swine flu is no more deadly than regular flu, and we will have to wait and see how the situation progresses.
In any case, if anyone misunderstood - I do not recommend young people to be complacent about the swine flu, or to French kiss a flu patient of any kind. But there's no need to get hysterical either.
Stu,
Let's start at the beginning - antibiotics are designed against bacteria. Influenza is caused by viruses. You probably mean anti-flu drugs, such as Tamiflu.
The fear of the World Health Organization (and of all of us) at the beginning, was that the human flu virus did mix with the bird flu and the swine flu, and a type of particularly deadly 'supervirus' was created that could easily infect humans. This fear, as of today, has been disproved: a new virus has been created that can easily infect humans, but it does not seem to be more deadly (or at least not to a greater extent) than the human flu viruses that exist today.
You are welcome to read on my blog a broader explanation about the beginning of the swine flu:
http://www.tapuz.co.il/blog/ViewEntry.asp?EntryId=1464621&passok=yes
Shabbat Shalom,
Roy.
------
my new blog - Another science
how is that related. It is a virus that contains components from an old swine flu that does not pass to humans, bird flu and human flu. The only thing related to pigs was that initially it was incubated in a pig, but from the moment it spread, it passed every other flu from person to person, and besides that, the UN took pains to emphasize that nothing happens from eating pork, provided it is well cooked.
Maybe people will finally stop eating this unclean and repulsive white meat (even though they say it's low in fat)
And healthy, not me.
Maybe people will finally stop eating this unclean and repulsive white meat 🙂 (even though they say it's low in fat 🙂 )
And healthy, not me. 🙂
Just for information, the World Health Organization is afraid of the swine flu and has raised the alert to a high level, not because the disease itself is dangerous and can kill massive amounts of people but because of the future consequences of that disease, this disease has already mutated from pigs to humans and potentially (and the truth is quite certain) is may undergo further transformation and create a mutation (which may be dangerous) because the virus is carried through the air, people can become infected at a crazy speed. The problem does not end here, the types of antibiotics that exist on the market are quite limited and as soon as a certain strain develops resistance to one antibiotic as well as to the second and the third, a problem begins to arise, because it takes time to develop a medicine like an antibiotic, and therefore it is problematic.
cheers
Why when they say 0.2% do they add absolute numbers (30,00) of the seasonal flu? Why, in the face of an epidemic that lasts only two months, do you present data for a whole year?
Because it sounds better! Less scary!
It should be noted that the seasonal flu kills 0.1%, so that only in the US, with a relatively developed healthcare system, the swine flu kills twice as much as the seasonal flu.
It should also be noted that the swine flu is most likely to infect about 98% of the world's population, while the seasonal flu barely infects 10% each year.
We all hope it happens.
But on the other hand Roy, what to do when we have so much population in this world.
Such a large number of people even if it is constant (or increases in our case) is a disaster in itself, even if they stop poisoning the environment with chemicals, dismantle nuclear weapons and stop global warming, and this is thanks to the unusual openness and enthusiasm of all the nations of the nation Especially the western world and the world of darkness.
At this moment the ratio between land areas and the size of the world population is one fifth of a square kilometer per person.
So maybe a global war/pandemic will sort us out? and put things back in order. And this time people will live and manage the world more correctly?