A new study examines how sea level rise has affected the famous statues so far and how many of them will survive an additional rise of several meters given the data on global warming.
According to a study recently published inJournal of Cultural Heritage By 2080, rising sea levels could cause seasonal waves to reach Ahu Tongariki—an iconic ceremonial platform that is part of Rapa Nui National Park (a UNESCO World Heritage Site)—according to a team of researchers from the University of Hawaii at Manoa. This coastal flooding threatens to damage up to 51 cultural properties in the area, including Rapa Nui's famous moai statues.
“This study reveals a critical threat to the living culture and livelihoods of Rapa Nui,” said Noah Paoa, lead author of the study and a doctoral student in the Department of Earth Sciences in the School of Ocean and Earth Sciences and Technology (SOEST) at the University of Hawaii. “For the community, these sites are a vital element in strengthening identity and supporting the revival of traditions. Economically, they are the backbone of the island’s tourism industry. Failure to address this threat could ultimately jeopardize the UNESCO World Heritage Site status.”
“As we work to understand the impacts of future sea level rise, we are providing information that not only helps us maintain safe and functioning spaces and infrastructure, but also supports thriving communities,” added Chip Fletcher, co-author of the study and dean of SOEST. “This means we need to document threats to culturally important places and assets, and develop plans to preserve and protect what matters to communities.”
Computer simulations reveal vulnerability
Pahua and his team built a detailed “digital twin” of the study site, using advanced computer models to simulate the wave environment along the coastline. They then mapped the expected wave-induced flooding under future sea-level rise scenarios. The inundation area was superimposed on geographic information layers that included the location of cultural properties, which was provided to the team by local partners—enabling them to identify which properties were likely to be flooded.
"Unfortunately, scientifically, the findings are not surprising," Pahua said. "We know that sea level rise poses a direct threat to coastlines around the world. The critical question was not If "The site will be affected, but when and with what severity. Our work aimed to establish possible timescales for the onset of impacts. The finding that waves could reach Ahu Tungariki by 2080 provides focused and urgent data that can spur community discussion and planning for the future."
The challenges facing Rafa Nui mirror realities in other coastal regions around the world, including Hawaii. “While Hawaii invests in protecting coastal infrastructure from rising sea levels, the irreplaceable coastal cultural heritage sites in Hawaii and across the Pacific face the same urgent threat,” added Pahua. “Our research at Rafa Nui serves as a vital blueprint, demonstrating how science can be used to predict risks to sacred sites, such as heiau and ancient burial sites. By developing and implementing these methods, we hope to help protect what is dear to Hawaiians—provided that the work is guided by, and deemed appropriate by, the Native Hawaiian community.”
Pahua is currently using available coastal inundation data to examine the potential impacts of sea level rise on cultural assets in Hawaii. In the future, he and his research team, in collaboration with local partners in Rapa Nui, plan to continue to explore the potential impacts of sea level rise on the island's coastal cultural assets, and to examine adaptation and mitigation efforts to protect cultural heritage.
More of the topic in Hayadan:
