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UPDATE Phobos-Grunt will crash tonight near the Falkland Islands. It will pass over Israel at 17:22

The damaged spacecraft is not expected to cause any damage, since most of the materials it is made of burn at low temperatures and will therefore burn up high in the atmosphere. Components with a total weight of about 200 kg may reach the ground, and most likely it will be in the sea

For the update on the crash

The Fernhofer Institute for High Frequency Physics and Radar Technologies Buchtenberg, Germany was able to image the Phobos-Grunt spacecraft with the help of the TIRA space observation radar. You can clearly see the deployed solar collectors (in the middle) and the fuel tank (at the bottom of the picture)
The Fernhofer Institute for High Frequency Physics and Radar Technologies Buchtenberg, Germany was able to image the Phobos-Grunt spacecraft with the help of the TIRA space observation radar. You can clearly see the deployed solar collectors (in the middle) and the fuel tank (at the bottom of the picture)

Update, after examining the orbit of the spacecraft that reluctantly became a satellite day and night until it crashed, it turns out that one of the passages will be able to see it from Israel. Tonight at 17:22 it will cross Israel diagonally from the shores of Tel Aviv to the South Kinneret (from southwest to northeast). At this time it is already dark on the ground, but at the height where the satellite will be (still) the sun is shining and therefore we can see it as a bright point of light in the sky
According to the latest estimates Phobos Geront is expected to crash at 23:44 GMT (01:44 Israel time) near the Falkland Islands. It will arrive from the west, so residents in Argentina will be able to spot the fireball (local time will be 20:44).

The original news from 14/1/2012
After a malfunction that occurred during the attempt to separate the third stage from the Phobos Grunt spacecraft that prevented it from reaching a higher orbit that was supposed to take it to Mars, the spacecraft is expected to crash on Earth at the beginning of next week, most likely on Sunday.
An international monitoring operation is currently underway to track the spacecraft that is orbiting the Earth out of control, the European Space Agency says. The spacecraft is expected to crash on Earth between Sunday and Monday. The monitoring is done with the help of 2 members of the coordinating committee for the field of space debris IDAC.
"The surveillance began on January 2. But the spacecraft was identified as a harmless object" says Heiner Klinkard, Head of Space Debris at the European Space Agency's Operations Center in Darmstadt, Germany. This estimate stems from the fact that the dry weight of the spacecraft is only 2.5 tons, and that there are indeed 11 tons of toxic fuels on board, which brings the weight of the spacecraft to 13.5 tons.
From studies by the European Space Agency, the Russian space agency Roscosmos and NASA, the spacecraft will burn at high altitude, and the toxic substances will evaporate.

The fuel tanks are made of aluminum. Over 50% of the materials that make up the spacecraft are made of steel, and some titanium and beryllium. Steel melts at higher temperatures than aluminum, so the chance of the fuel tanks surviving is low. The fuel is mainly hydrosine and nitrogen pentoxide, the former boiling at 113 degrees and the latter 21 degrees, so they will evaporate at high altitude once the tank breaks apart.
Roscosmos said that at most 20-30 fragments of Phobos Grunt with a total weight of less than 200 kilograms make it to the ground, but considering that most of the Earth is covered in water and there are also large empty land areas, the chances of the fragments falling in an inhabited area are small.
Phobos Grunt also carries a Chinese spacecraft called Yinghu-1 that was designed to orbit Mars. The Chinese had already declared it lost as soon as word of the Phobos Geront malfunction became known in November.

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