Comprehensive coverage

Research: The prediction and warning systems against earthquakes are ineffective

Researchers from Ben-Gurion University and the Sami Shimon Academic College of Engineering Studies show in a new study how the vast sums invested to date in measuring seismic radiation to predict earthquakes have gone down the drain, because this radiation is absorbed by the earth's rock. Their proposal: measuring electromagnetic radiation that may give a warning hours or even days before a deadly earthquake

Illustration: pixabay.
Illustration: pixabay.

For decades, hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested in the research and development of systems for forecasting and early warning against earthquakes based on seismic (acoustic) radiation, and such a system is even currently being established in Israel, according to reports, at an estimated cost of tens of millions of shekels. However, researchers at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev explain in a new study how this method has so far failed in its ability to predict an earthquake before it occurred, and in fact failed to prevent damage to human life and property - because the seismic radiation is absorbed by the earth's belly.

The research was conducted by Prof. (Emeritus) Avinoam Rabinowitz from the physics department, Prof. (Emeritus) Dov Bhatt from the Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences at Ben-Gurion University, as well as Dr. Vladimir Fried From the Department of Civil Engineering at the Sami Shimon Academic College of Engineering. Their research, which is based on their previous research, also shows that earthquakes can be successfully predicted based on electromagnetic radiation, if the special shape of the pulses analyzed and measured in the past by the researchers is taken into account.

The article that was accepted for publication in the Geological Magazine of the University of Cambridge, proved that, contrary to the popular assumption, there is no possibility of predicting future earthquakes using the seismic radiation, and this is because in the first stages of the development of an earthquake, before it actually occurs, the time when the frequency of the seismic radiation is high, This radiation is absorbed by the earth's rock. As a result, at a distance of a few kilometers from the center of the noise, there is practically no possibility of detecting it, while at the time of the occurrence itself, the frequency of the radiation decreases and it can be measured, but then it is already too late to warn of the catastrophe. On the other hand, the researchers found that electromagnetic radiation emitted from a high-frequency earthquake, precisely in its early stages (the nucleation stages), is much less absorbed by the earth's rock and can be measured.

"The study showed how a huge investment of millions or billions of dollars in seismic measurements to predict earthquakes that were made over the years was not successful," says Prof. Rabinowitz. "The innovative seismic warning systems, such as the one currently being installed according to reports in Israel, refer to the treatment of an earthquake when it actually occurs, and are used as a kind of alarm only, similar to an alarm that warns of a missile that has already been launched. These systems can warn only a few seconds before the wave of destruction."

"Our proposal is to use the special form of development of the electromagnetic radiation as a function of time, as we found in our previous works, to filter the radiation resulting from the nucleation processes of the earthquake. In this way, it is possible to reach a real possibility of predicting an earthquake, hours and even days before it becomes destructive. We hope that such an action will bring a blessing to the world in preventing the damages resulting from a lack of early warning against earthquakes."

See more on the subject on the science website:

5 תגובות

  1. were indeed measured with p and c,
    But only after everything above is already destroyed
    Seismic radiation has a low velocity
    And on the other hand, an electromagnetic wave moves at a very high speed even after the transition in the rock is offset

  2. I am a seismology professor in the Department of Geophysics at Tel Aviv University, and as you know, this article does not add respect to a website that claims to be serious. You have indeed given a platform to unfounded nonsense, but you have added and slandered an important system that is being established these days by world-renowned experts from the Geological Institute. Warning systems are working successfully in Japan, Taiwan, Mexico and California - so everyone is wrong and only the researchers from ABG are right?

  3. Well, really, these are pensioners who have been trying to push their atmospheric radar for years
    They never managed to prove their delusional theory. Not scientifically proven!

    In contrast, thousands of earthquakes in the world have been measured in real time through the analysis of P waves and S waves

    Predicting earthquakes days to hours in advance has never been scientifically proven. Anyone who claims otherwise is a liar or delusional.

  4. A 12-second warning is intended to activate automatic defaults such as closing gas and hazardous material tank valves, power outages to prevent fires, stopping traffic at traffic lights, etc.

  5. The necessary warning is half an hour to an hour before an earthquake - enough time for people to get out of dangerous areas. A month's notice will not help - what will they do? A 12 hour notice won't help as much.
    What is being done today can help, at the level of an alarm after the earthquake has started. If there is a dense monitoring system, an alarm transmission by radio waves at the speed of light can activate horns 5-20 seconds before the seismic wave front arrives (depending on the distance from the epicenter), and even a full minute or two before the peak of the waves arrives. In addition, if there are foreshocks, then there may be a slightly longer warning. 20 seconds is enough time for students to clear the classroom in the direction of the shelter, and for families to enter a protected room. Of course, it is better to protect all the public buildings and then all the residences, but this is not practical in the political system in Israel.

Leave a Reply

Email will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismat to prevent spam messages. Click here to learn how your response data is processed.