מ3D weather forecasting combined with meteorological forecasts provides warnings 5–XNUMX days in advance, helping to rescue vacationers and protect public health — amid the worsening climate crisis
On a calm day in May 2022, without any prior warning, strong easterly winds hit the Tiberias promenade, and combined with a higher-than-normal water level for the season, they caused waves that rose to unusual heights and flooded it. The result was damage totaling tens of millions of shekels. To prevent this from happening again, scientists at the Sea of Galilee Research Laboratory have since been working on a solution that could warn of the next event and thus allow for advance preparation: the new Sea of Galilee Forecasting System. How does it work, and how might it change the way we respond to extreme events and climate crises, and even save bathers who have been swept into the heart of the lake?
The Sea of Galilee is the largest freshwater source in Israel, still serving as an important source of drinking water, a center of attraction for more than 3 million vacationers each year, and a natural gem that is part of our culture. However, recent years have brought with them new winds – literally. Climate change is bringing Sea of Galilee Increasing challenges: unusual winds, high waves, drought years, algal blooms and other dangers to public health. All of these require early preparation, and precisely for this purpose, an innovative operational forecasting system was developed at the Sea of Galilee Research Laboratory, which was presented at the conference the annual ה-53 To science and the environment.
A prediction system that could save lives
The operational forecasting system – intended for daily use and operation in real events – was developed at the Sea of Galilee Research Laboratory to provide early warnings of life-threatening phenomena in the lake. It is based on a combination of a 3D model of the Sea of Galilee, a model for predicting the direction and height of waves, and meteorological forecasts, with the aim of providing short-term forecasts of 5 to XNUMX days regarding the wave and current regime. “The system is capable of warning of high waves expected in the Sea of Galilee – including on which beaches and when, and also of currents that are unusual in their strength,” explains Dr. Gideon Gal, director of the Sea of Galilee Research Institute of the Institute of Marine and Lake Research, who worked on the forecasting system together with Dr. Yael Amitai and Dr. Ofir Tal.
Gal demonstrates a dangerous situation that repeats itself almost every summer: "Someone gets on a mattress on the western shore of the Sea of Galilee, say on a hot day in mid-July at 12 o'clock, near Hukuk Beach. There's no wind, everything's fine, he lies down and sunbathes. An hour later, the daily breeze comes in from the west, and suddenly the guy on the mattress finds himself 3 kilometers from the beach. He can't get back out. His friends don't know where he is. How do they find him?"
In such cases, Gal explains, "the system will also be able to help emergency services locate people or bodies that have disappeared due to winds or waves, even if someone, God forbid, fell off a boat and drowned. This will help rescue forces narrow the search area." The system does this by calculating the direction of the currents and winds at the time of the incident, which makes it possible to estimate where the person was swept away.
Toxic rashes
But the story doesn't end with Gal. "There is another element here, which is an ecological and biological element in the Sea of Galilee: the development of species of algae and bacteria, some of which can produce toxins," Gal adds. "In high concentrations, these toxins are dangerous to animals and humans. In the Sea of Galilee, we haven't reached such a situation yet, but it could happen."
Since the mid-90s, significant concentrations of Cyanobacteria In the Sea of Galilee. Cyanobacteria are bacteria that can perform photosynthesis. Therefore, they are treated in the same way as algae in all matters related to the management of lakes and water resources, and they are even called "blue-green algae." Climate change causes an increase in temperature - both of the air and the lake water - and creates favorable conditions for the proliferation of cyanobacteria. One of the biggest challenges in dealing with cyanobacterial blooms is the uncertainty: "We have a winter-spring appearance of certain species of cyanobacteria, and a summer appearance of other species. In both appearances, there are species that know how to produce toxins that are different from each other. We are looking for an explanation - why do these blooms happen to us? Why sometimes they do and sometimes they don't? And why sometimes there are no toxins and sometimes there are relatively high concentrations?" says Gal.
Although no serious injuries have yet been recorded in Israel due to toxins originating from algae and bacteria, Gal emphasizes the danger of unconscious exposure. "People enter the water and don't know that they are swimming in water with a high concentration of toxins, which enter the respiratory tract, enter the mouth, enter the eyes - there is a problem here." Beyond the risk of swimming in water contaminated with toxins, there is also a concern about toxins entering domestic and agricultural water systems, since the Sea of Galilee still serves as a source of drinking water for residents of the north and a source of water for agriculture: "This water is pumped into the suction systems that are used to pump drinking or irrigation water from the Sea of Galilee. There is potential for a problem here in terms of public health," he explains.
Therefore, Gal emphasizes the possible contribution of the forecasting system in this area as well. Currently, the system is still in the development stages, but is already providing initial forecasts for experiments and preparation. "Our system, when fully built, will be able to provide solutions at all levels related to public health – from the quality of water for drinking or irrigation to swimming and dealing with waves and currents."
When science saves lives
Despite the risk, Israel still does not have a clear procedure for dealing with toxic blooms in the Sea of Galilee. "In Germany and the United States, there are very clear protocols for closing a beach to swimming," says Gal. "In various places in the world, the local authority or the ministry responsible for beach management or the Ministry of Health issue an announcement that the beaches are closed until further notice due to a high concentration of cyanobacteria or toxins. The water is not to be used for drinking, swimming, bathing, or anything. This protocol does not exist in our country, and I think there is room for it to be implemented. We have tried to promote the issue a little in recent years. Unfortunately, it has not come to fruition."
Gal adds that the system will be able to "provide the information and analytical tools, and do quick tests to see if there are high or low concentrations of toxins. But in the end, the authorities are the ones who need to take these tools and create the protocols and decision-making processes."
"The public always hears 'science, science, science,' and many times this science doesn't really concern us or doesn't really connect with us," Gal concludes. "But here there is a very long scientific process, of a lot of work, which includes ecology, biology, physics in bodies of water - and in the end this science is distilled into one system, which will save that guy who got on the mattress at noon in midsummer because he didn't know that there were westerly winds that enter the lake every summer at one or two in the afternoon. It's a translation of basic science, through applied science, into a life-saving system - which gives alerts and can assist in the decision-making process. In my opinion, it's super interesting and reflects how science ultimately meets us - the public, the decision-makers and the rescue services." And when one prediction system manages to connect years of research in the laboratory with one critical moment in the heart of the Sea of Galilee, then we can begin to believe that science really does save lives.
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