A comprehensive study by economist Erik Brinwolfson reveals a sharp decline in young people's employment in fields affected by artificial intelligence, especially in software development, marketing, and accounting.
Ever since Chat-GPT entered our lives, there have been widespread warnings that junior jobs are in danger. After all, if AI can do junior-level work, why do we need young people at all?
Now comes the first major proof that the prophets of doom were right, and along with it the understanding that this is a complex picture, and every profession changes in different ways.
The new evidence has arrived. From a study by the famous economist Eric Brinwolfson (I highly recommend reading his books). Brinwolfson and his team analyzed data from millions of American workers in recent years, and found that at the end of 2022 – right around the time Chat-GPT appeared – there was a dramatic shift in the level of employment of workers. In fields where AI is rapidly becoming integrated, such as software development, the employment of early-career workers (between the ages of 22 and 25) dropped by almost twenty percent. The same happened to workers between the ages of 26 and 30.
And what about the older, more experienced workers? They continued to be employed as usual.
This pattern repeats itself in every profession where artificial intelligence is integrated at a high level, such as customer service, marketing and sales management, accounting, financial management, and more. The graphs are very clear: By the end of 2022, the employment level of workers of all ages increases almost uniformly. Then suddenly, within one month, the picture changes completely and young workers fall to the bottom of the graph. Brinvolfsson and his team also ruled out the possibility that these are the rolling effects of the Corona period, or other economic crises.
Another insight that comes from the study is that artificial intelligence can integrate into professions in different ways. Brinwolfson divides the types of integration into two: automation versus empowerment. When artificial intelligence “automates” a profession, it effectively makes young people redundant, because it does the work for them. When it “empowers,” there is also room for young people – perhaps because they can use it themselves, and thus achieve impressive achievements like older, experienced workers.
What does all this mean in the short term?
First of all, if you are finishing your undergraduate studies now in fields like software development, marketing, accounting, and others that are influenced by artificial intelligence – it will be a little harder for you to find your first job. I am sure that in the comments to this post you will hear a lot of former students proudly saying that immediately after completing their studies, they found a job in their field. But the data shows that finding that first job will be a little harder than before.
In the medium term of two years ahead, the assumption is that artificial intelligence will enter additional fields, and will also be able to perform junior-level work in them. The 'salvation' may come from the fact that there will be fields in which it will be more difficult to automate work. These would be, for example, blue-collar professions, nursing and elderly care, or even mentoring and coaching. In all of these professions, it will enhance the abilities of the worker – for example, through constant advice and assistance – but there will still be a need for a person to carry out the tasks themselves. There will still be plenty of work in these fields, and even more than ever.
And in the long term, where will it be able to do 'everything'? According to current projections, we will reach this point in five years (with a probability of ~62 percent according to prediction markets) when it comes to non-physical tasks. By 2035, the chance of this increases to 78 percent. And that is a very different future from anything we know.
But let's leave the long term aside for a moment. What do we do here and now?
Advice for today's students
Here are three pieces of advice for today's students, who must understand that no one is out there waiting for them in the job market. Today more than ever, anyone who wants to improve their chances of finding a job right after graduation needs to start thinking differently.
The first piece of advice is to start your job search while you're still in your degree. Even in your first year. Look for places to do projects and internships. Both in research labs and in industry. It won't be easy, but if you succeed, you'll graduate with a higher level of expertise than all of your friends.
Second, try to develop an interdisciplinary specialization. That is, combine different worlds of knowledge. This is one of the places where AI still struggles. It can do the simple, obvious things, but it has a hard time dealing with new combinations of fields and ideas. If you're studying computer science, also take courses in marketing and psychology. If you're studying sociology, also get an education in programming. If you're studying philosophy, good luck.
Third, build a personal reputation for yourself. Take an active part in social networks and conferences, share your thoughts, start a podcast or channel on TikTok, Instagram, LinkedIn and Facebook-of-the-elderly. Make yourself an authority in your field, or at least a knowledge hub that can connect you to real experts in the field. You must invest in your own marketing, because in a world where everyone can reach the same level in their work in the first few years, there will be a huge advantage for those who manage to build a prominent professional presence before they are even hired.
And above all, and it goes without saying: you must learn to use AI. According to a recent survey, two-thirds of leaders simply stated that they would not hire anyone without any AI skills at all. Don’t deprive yourself of this critical tool. But of course, know when and how to use it, and don’t use it to replace human thinking and learning. If you do, you’ll find that in the end, managers will choose to hire AI—not you.
Successfully!
More of the topic in Hayadan:
