The veteran coastal engineer points to a rapid rate of rise in Hadera, a gap of about 24 centimeters between sea level and the reference point used for planning, and a decrease in the supply of sand from the south. Ministry of Environmental Protection: Preparing for a level of 1.06 meters above the national balance zero by 2100; updating the reference line will be discussed this year
Israel should consider a rise of about two meters in sea level when planning its coastlines, and not continue to rely on a statutory coastline set at a height of 75 centimeters above the national balance zero. This is what engineer Dov (Sergio) Rosen, former director of the Department of Marine Geology and Coastal Processes at the National Institute of Marine Geology, said in an interview with the Al-Hadan website.Exploring the seas and lakes of Israel And an expert in coastal, port and marine engineering.
The comparison between two meters and 75 centimeters requires clarification: 75 centimeters is not a prediction ofSea level riseThis is the height at which the coastline is currently defined.Coastal Environment Protection LawHowever, in Rosen's opinion, this reference point is no longer sufficient for long-term planning under conditions of rising sea levels, storms, and coastal erosion. His recommendation of two meters is a cautious planning-engineering envelope, and not a determination that sea level will necessarily rise exactly two meters by the end of the century.
The level in Hadera is rising faster than the global average.
According to Rosen, data from the monitoring station at the end of the Hadera pier indicates a rising trend of 5.1 millimeters per year until the end of 2024. Rosen established the station in 1991 and has been handling its measurements and data processing for years. The Hadera station is part of the global sea level monitoring network.
The figure presented by Rosen is higher than the global average, which in recent years has been estimated at about 3.7 millimeters per year. However, the National Monitoring Report of Mediterranean For 2024, published in April 2026, it shows a cumulative figure of about 15 centimeters since 1992 — about 4.7 millimeters per year on average. The two numbers are not the same, and therefore each must be attributed to its own source and calculation method. The Ministry of Environmental Protection did not directly respond to the question of whether it confirms the 5.1 millimeters figure.
Rosen emphasizes that even satellite data from the open sea alone does not tell us what is happening right next to the coast. Local processes operate near land: strong winds can push water onto the shore; breaking waves cause water to pile up; and waves climbing the shoreline add additional height. That is why, he says, planning a promenade, residential neighborhood, power plant, or desalination plant cannot rely solely on a global or basin average.
A gap of about 24 centimeters already at the starting point
One of Rosen's central claims concerns the "national balance zero" — the topographic reference point to which heights are attributed in planning and construction in Israel.
He said that an analysis of 19 years of hourly measurements in Hadera showed that the average sea level was 14.9 centimeters higher than the national balance zero. After taking into account the increase measured since the reference year 2005 until the end of 2024, he said that the current gap is about 24 centimeters.
The meaning, he claims, is that some planning starts from too low a starting point. If a future forecast is calculated relative to the national zero balance without taking into account the existing gap, the safety margins of buildings, drainage systems, and coastal infrastructure are reduced already at the planning stage.
Rosen suggests updating the reference point or, at the very least, requiring planners to add the existing gap to any future scenario. He mentions a scenario of a rise of 1.6 meters by 2100 and an addition of storm conditions. In contrast, the Ministry of Environmental Protection said that the recommendation adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is to prepare for a level of 1.06 meters above the zero national balance in the Pacific Ocean by 2100, and that further research on storm conditions is being conducted.
Why a two-meter line will change the construction map
The Coastal Environment Protection Law currently defines the coastline along the Mediterranean Sea at 0.75 meters above the national balance zero. Rosen recommends raising the reference line used in planning to the order of two meters.
Such a change is not just a technical fix. In low-lying, temperate locations, it could shift the reference line eastward, reduce the areas that can be built on, and require a reexamination of existing plans. It could affect developers, landowners, and local authorities—and therefore also provoke opposition. But according to Rosen, postponing the decision doesn’t eliminate the risk; it just transfers it to building owners and the public in the future.
Rising sea levels not only threaten direct flooding. They may raise and salinize groundwater in the coastal plain, accelerate corrosion in pipes and foundations, damage underground parking lots and tunnels, and increase pressure on the kurkar cliffs.
Al-Arish Port blocks sand coming from the south
Another problem is the sand balance. Israel's coasts They are part of the coastal compartment of the Nile, and the sand moves along the coast from south to north. Dams on the Nile, marine facilities, and ports have changed this movement over the years.
According to Rosen, the expansion El Arish Port and deepening it to about 15 meters created a new barrier to the sand moving along the coast. Most of the transport occurs in the shallow water strip, so the breakwaters and the depth of the port trap a large portion of the sand west of the port and delay its arrival on the Israeli coast.
In the long term, the coastline around the port may change, allowing some of the sand to bypass it, but Rosen estimates that the process could take a decade or two. In the meantime, the sand shortage could accelerate Beach retreat and cliff erosion in Israel.
The expansion of the Suez Canal also enters the equation.
Rosen asks not to ignore the expansion either Suez canalHe claims that increasing the flow cross-section and deepening the canal reduce hydraulic resistance and allow for greater flow from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. Since the Red Sea level at the southern end of the canal is higher on average than the Mediterranean Sea level at the northern end, there is a northward flow of warmer, saltier water for a significant portion of the time.
He said this additional water could have an impact on the water level balance in the southeastern Mediterranean, alongside the global impact of warming sea water and melting ice. However, the magnitude of the canal's contribution must be calculated using a calibrated regional hydrodynamic model; a general assumption is not enough.
In its response, the Ministry of Environmental Protection did not directly address the impact of the expansion of the Suez Canal or the El-Arish Port. The ministry said it was examining the multi-year sand balance around the Ashdod Port, including maritime traffic from the south.
Not a global model — a model that knows the Israeli coast
Rosen's practical recommendation is to require the use of local hydrodynamic and sedimentological models, or at least models calibrated to Israeli data. Such a model should include the structure of the seabed, winds, waves, storms, currents, sand movement, and the characteristics of the planned structure.
This need is also reinforced by the ministry's response, which stated that for marine structures it is guiding developers to use models specifically calibrated for Israel's coasts. The question that remains open is whether the same requirement is also consistently applied to land planning near the coast and the examination of existing infrastructure.
The debate between Rosen and the ministry is not about sea level rise itself, but about the height of the planning envelope, the reference point, and the speed with which the rules should be changed. The ministry currently relies on a target level of 1.06 meters above the zero national balance in a calm sea by 2100. Rosen believes that responsible engineering should take into account an existing gap of about 24 centimeters, more stringent forecasts, and an addition for storm events — and actually address a rise of about two meters.
The response of the Ministry of Environmental Protection
The Ministry of Environmental Protection is working continuously to prepare forClimate change, based on official studies and assessments by the Israel Institute of Marine and Lake Research, which is the guiding factor for marine monitoring. In this context, the Inter-Ministerial Administration for Climate Change, which the Ministry heads, adopted a recommendation for preparations for a future sea level in calm waters of 1.06 meters above the national balance zero by the year 2100. The Ministry is currently promoting follow-up research to examine the precise implications of climate change on predicted sea levels and storm conditions in the coastal area.
Regarding the integration of this data into the planning system, the Coastal Environment Protection Committee has established a guiding policy for new plans, and the Ministry requires that project developers of relevant plans refer to the level recommended by the Climate Change Administration as part of the guidelines for an environmental document or environmental impact assessment. With regard to marine structures, the Ministry guides developers to use hydrodynamic and sedimentological models calibrated specifically for the coasts of Israel, in order to examine the impact of the structure on the environment, including the coastline and seabed.
The issue of updating the planning reference line is expected to be discussed by the Climate Change Preparedness Directorate during this year, in light of the accuracy of the mapping of the coastal area currently being conducted. After the Directorate's discussions, the Ministry's position on the matter will be formulated. It should be noted that the Ministry is working in parallel with the examination of the multi-year sand balance around the Port of Ashdod, which examines the effects of activity in the area, including maritime traffic from the south, on the supply of sand to Israel's coasts.
In summary, monitoring sea level rise is the responsibility of the IDF, while the integration of data into climate scenarios and the planning system is done in cooperation between the Directorate for Climate Change Preparedness, the National Marine Environmental Protection Unit in the ministry, and the Planning Administration.
For the original publication: Opening the original publication
Sources and links
- The National Monitoring Report of the Mediterranean Sea for 2024
- Sea Level Rise Preparation Report in Israel
- The Hadera Monitoring Station of the Israel Marine and Lake Research Institute
- Statutory coastline and 0.75 meter map
3 תגובות
The claim about the Statue of Liberty is not a measurement but an impression from photographs. The NOAA station at Battery, near the Statue of Liberty in the same harbor, measures a relative rise of 2.95 mm per year — about 21 cm in 70 years. At the same time, the tides change the water level by about 1.4 meters, so it is impossible to identify a trend of centimeters by comparing photos taken at different times and under different conditions.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8518750
It's not just about sea glaciers, but also land glaciers, especially in Greenland and Antarctica, whose melt joins the sea water.
Regrettably, the water line at the Statue of Liberty has remained the same for at least 70 years!!
Even if the "icebergs" melt, the water line remains the same. Check with a glass of water full of ice. The water line never rises!