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IPCC: despite measures to reduce greenhouse gases, warming continues, acceleration is required in the fight against the climate crisis

This is according to a follow-up report on findings from the sixth report of the International Panel on Climate Change IPCC. The global surface temperature in the last decade reached 1.1 degrees Celsius above the average in the years 1850-1900

We are rapidly approaching the dangerous limit of 1.5 degrees above average at the beginning of the industrial revolution. Illustration: depositphotos.com
We are rapidly approaching the dangerous limit of 1.5 degrees above average at the beginning of the industrial revolution. Illustration: depositphotos.com

Despite measures to reduce greenhouse gases, the warming continues, a quantum leap is required in the fight against the climate crisis. To a large extent these efforts are largely fruitless. This is according to a follow-up report on findings from the sixth report of the International Panel on Climate Change IPCC in a report published last night (Monday).

The findings of the report are difficult: human activity, mainly through the emission of greenhouse gases, has unequivocally caused the earth to warm, with the global surface temperature reaching 1.1 degrees Celsius above 1850-1900 in the years 2011-2020. Global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to grow, with unequal contributions resulting from unsustainable energy use, and change in land use, lifestyles, and patterns of consumption and production in different regions, between and within countries, and among individuals.

Observed changes and effects

According to the authors of the report, extensive and rapid changes occurred in the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere (the ice cover) and the biosphere. Human-caused climate change is already causing many extreme weather and climate conditions in every region on Earth. This led to widespread negative effects and associated losses and damages to nature and people. Vulnerable communities that have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected.

Contemporary progress in adaptation and gaps and challenges

Adaptation planning and implementation has progressed in all sectors and regions, with documented benefits and varying effectiveness. Despite progress, adaptation gaps exist, and will continue to grow at current rates of implementation. Hard and soft limits to adaptation have been reached in some ecosystems and regions. Mismatches occur in certain sectors and regions. Current global financial flows for adaptation are insufficient to realize and limit adaptation options, especially in developing countries.

Policies and laws addressing downsizing have expanded consistently since the Fifth Report. Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 implied by Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) announced by October 2021 make clear that warming is likely to exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century and will make it difficult to limit warming below 2°C. There are gaps between the expected emissions from implemented policies and those of NDCs and financing flows that do not fall below the levels needed to meet climate goals in all sectors and regions.

Future climate change, risks and long-term responses

Continued greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming, with the best estimate being to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius in the near term in considered scenarios and modeled trajectories. Any increase in global warming will intensify multiple and simultaneous dangers. A deep, rapid and continuous reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will lead to a significant slowdown in global warming within about two decades, and also to significant changes in the composition of the atmosphere within a few years.

Climate change impacts and climate-related risks

For any given level of future warming, many climate-related risks are higher than estimated in AR5, and expected long-term impacts are many times greater than currently observed. Expected negative risks and impacts and associated losses and damages from climate change escalate with each increment of global warming (very high confidence). Climatic and non-climatic risks will increasingly interact, creating complex and tiered risks that are more complex and more difficult to manage

Likelihood and risks of unavoidable, irreversible or sudden changes

Some future changes are inevitable and/or irreversible, but can be limited by deep, rapid and sustained global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The likelihood of sudden and/or irreversible changes increases the higher the levels of global warming. Similarly, the probability of low-probability outcomes associated with potentially very large adverse effects increases with higher levels of global warming.

Adaptation possibilities and their limits in a warmer world

The possible and effective adaptation options today will become limited and less effective as global warming increases. As global warming increases, losses and damages will increase and more human and natural systems will reach the limits of adaptation. Adaptation can be avoided by planning and implementing flexible, multi-sectoral, inclusive, long-term adaptation actions, with benefits shared by many sectors and systems.

Carbon budgets and net zero emissions

Limiting human-caused global warming requires zero net CO2 emissions. The cumulative carbon emissions until the date of reaching zero net CO2 emissions and the level of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in this decade largely determine whether warming can be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius. Projected CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure without further reductions will exceed the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C (50%)

Reduction pathways

All global trajectories that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with or without a temporary deviation from the target and those that limit warming to 2°C (>67%), involve rapid and deep, and in most cases immediate, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in all sectors in the coming decade. Global emissions of net zero carbon dioxide are reached for these trajectory categories in the early 2050s and around the early 2070s, respectively.

Exceeding the warming level and back

If warming exceeds a specified level such as 1.5°C, it can be gradually reduced again by achieving and maintaining net negative global CO2 emissions. This will require additional deployment of carbon dioxide removal capabilities, compared to routes without this exception. Which will lead to greater feasibility and sustainability concerns. Exceeding the target involves negative effects, some irreversible, and additional risks to human and natural systems, all of which increase with the magnitude and duration of the exceedance.

       

Urgency of integrated climate action for the near term

Climate change poses a threat to human well-being and the health of the planet. A window of opportunity to ensure a living and sustainable future for all is rapidly closing. Climate-resilient development integrates adaptation and mitigation to promote sustainable development for all, and is enabled by increased international cooperation, including improved access to adequate financial resources, particularly for vulnerable regions, sectors and groups, and inclusive governance and coordinated policies. The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have effects now and for thousands of years

The benefits of near-term action

Deep, rapid and sustained mitigation and accelerated implementation of adaptation actions in this decade will reduce expected losses and damages to humans and ecosystems, and provide many co-benefits, especially for air quality and health. A delay in mitigation and adaptation actions will lock up high-emissions infrastructures, increase the risks of stranded assets and escalating costs, reduce feasibility and increase losses and damages. Near-term operations involve high upfront investments and potentially disruptive changes that can be reduced by a variety of enabling policies.

Reduction and adjustment options in different systems

Rapid and far-reaching changes in all sectors and systems are necessary to achieve deep and lasting emission reductions and ensure a sustainable and sustainable future for all. These system transitions involve a significant expansion of a wide range of reduction and adjustment options. Practical, effective and low-cost options for mitigation and adaptation are already available, with differences between systems and regions.

Synergies and compromises with sustainable development

Accelerated and equitable action in recession and adaptation to the effects of climate change is critical for sustainable development. Mitigation and adaptation actions have more synergies than compromises with sustainable development goals. Synergies and compromises depend on the context and scope of the application.

equality and inclusion

Prioritizing equity, climate justice, social justice, inclusion and just transition processes can enable adaptation and ambitious mitigation actions and climate resilient development. Adaptation outcomes are enhanced by increased support to areas and people with the highest vulnerability to climate hazards. Integrating climate adaptation into social protection programs improves resilience. There are many options for reducing emissions-intensive consumption, including through behavioral and lifestyle changes, with co-benefits for social well-being.

governance and policy

Effective climate action is made possible by political commitment, well-coordinated multi-level governance, institutional frameworks, laws, policies and strategies, and improved access to finance and technology. Clear objectives, coordination between multiple policy areas and comprehensive governance processes enable effective climate action. Regulatory and economic instruments can support deep emission reductions and climate resilience if they are scaled up and widely applied. Climate resilient development benefits from relying on diverse knowledge.

Financing, technology and international cooperation

Finance, technology and international cooperation are critical factors for accelerated climate action. If the climate goals are achieved, both adaptation and recession financing will have to increase many times over. There is enough global capital to close the global investment gap, but there are barriers to directing the capital to climate action. Improving technological innovation systems is the key to accelerating the widespread adoption of technologies and work practices. Increasing international cooperation is possible through several channels.

For the report on the IPCC website

The response of the Ministry of Environmental Protection:

The Minister of Environmental Protection, Idit Silman, following the publication of the last part of the IPCC's sixth report: "According to the report, despite plans and preparedness actions promoted today in all countries of the world, the gap in preparedness is still very large, and will continue to widen if we do not greatly increase the pace and scope of actions. The world is not ready and is in danger. The report sharpens the urgent need to promote the climate law that we are leading, and to promote Israel's preparedness also in government ministries and local authorities"

The last and concluding part of the sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC, published today (Mon), is a synthesis of three broad reports published at the end of 2021 and during 2022, which reviewed the predictions for climate change, the consequences and how to prepare for them, and the ways to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions, as well as three smaller reports published during this period. The report focuses on three topics: the current situation and trends, the forecasts for the distant future including the consequences and the required responses, and the required responses in the near future

The Minister of Environmental Protection, Idit Silman: "The report states that global warming, unprecedented in the history of the earth, is due to greenhouse gas emissions as a result of human activity. Despite the preparedness plans and actions promoted in all the countries of the world, the gap in preparedness is still very large, and will continue to expand if we do not greatly increase the pace and scope of the actions throughout the world. The world is not ready and is in danger. We still have the ability to influence - the decisions we make today and the actions we take will affect us and future generations. The report sharpens the need for urgent promotion of Israel's climate law and preparedness."

The chief scientist of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Prof. Nega Kronfeld-Shor: "Global warming has already caused rapid and extensive changes in the sea, land and poles, and has affected life on the entire planet. The weather is becoming more extreme and the rate of change is much higher than expected according to the panel's fifth report, in part because of an interaction between the impacts.

"The changes mentioned in the report have devastating consequences for the natural environment and humans. The most significant damage is to disadvantaged populations, whose share in global warming is small, and the gaps between these countries and the developed countries are growing. About 3.5 billion people currently live in areas highly vulnerable to climate change, millions of people suffer from food insecurity and about half of the world's population experiences water shortages at least some of the time. Warming also affects human health and well-being, causing an increase in morbidity and mortality and economic damage. Some of the changes and consequences are already irreversible today, including hundreds of local species extinctions, glaciation and retreat of glaciers and thawing of permafrost (freezing), and some of them can only be moderated.

"Based on the countries' commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (NDC's), the world is expected to cross the threshold of one and a half degrees during the 21st century, and it will be difficult to prevent crossing the threshold of two degrees. In addition, there are significant gaps between the commitments and the actual policies and actions, which makes the situation even worse.

"Even in the most optimistic scenarios, global warming is expected to continue at least until the year 2040. The report states that the countries must reduce the use of fossil fuels including coal, oil, and gas immediately and deeply, and reach a 50% reduction by 2030 and the cessation of use and even a negative balance by 2050. The use of energy and resources must be highly efficient, agriculture must be adapted to the changing climate and natural habitats must be preserved, including the restoration of forests and other damaged habitats. It is possible that all these will not be enough, and we will also have to rely on the absorption of greenhouse gases from the air and the development of climate control technologies.

"Dealing with climate change requires the mobilization and cooperation of all sectors, political commitment, financing, the development of new and environmentally friendly technologies and capabilities, and a profound change in conduct from the individual level to the level of governments, including international collaborations. Such a change will only be made through broad mobilization through education, and the use of regulatory and economic tools, and now is the time to do so.

"Unfortunately, the numbers show that we are still not in the right direction. The window of opportunity available to us to allow us and future generations to live a healthy and good life is closing fast. The countries should act in a more responsible, fast, determined and ambitious manner, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for climate change so as not to lose the opportunity."

More of the topic in Hayadan:

One response

  1. The only practical solution to reducing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is a controlled fertilization of the seas and oceans to increase photosynthesis in them, and a transition to the use of nuclear energy in generation 4 and 5 nuclear reactors

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