Federal and state policies in the US create uncertainty among biotech companies and hinder the development of personalized mRNA vaccines
At the beginning of Donald Trump's second term, American health authorities looked up to his promises to launch mRNA-based anti-cancer vaccines, but just months later, political upheavals and a takeover by extreme anti-vaccine activists threaten to cut off the economic and scientific engine behind the technology.
The day after Trump was sworn in last January, billionaire Larry Ellison announced a $500 billion private investment in artificial intelligence (AI) research that would serve, among other things, the development of personalized mRNA vaccines against cancer. The planned use of AI to analyze tumor genomes and create a vaccine tailored to each patient symbolized, according to Ellison, “the promise of the future” and was seen as a direct continuation of Trump’s 2020 coronavirus vaccine push.
But the media buzz quickly gave way to industry panic. Deborah Barbara, the leader of the trade group Alliance for mRNA Medicines, described how the appointment of vaccine watchdog Robert Kennedy Jr. as head of the US Department of Health and Human Services and the removal of long-time vaccine experts led to the immediate cancellation of research grants and the preparation for layoffs in government benefits designed to advance mRNA therapies.
Political uncertainty and state legislation
In parallel with the federal cuts, several states, mainly in the South and West, have begun to advance bills to restrict or ban the use of mRNA vaccines for future pandemics. Although these bills have not yet been approved, they have created a sense of hesitation among investors and biotech companies. Deborah Day Barbara, leader of the trade group Alliance for mRNA Medicines, described how the appointment of anti-vaccine critic Robert Kennedy Jr. as head of the US Department of Health and Human Services and the dismissal of long-time experts in the field led to the immediate cancellation of research grants and the announcement of budget cuts intended to advance mRNA therapies. From “Operation Warp Speed” to an existential threat
In 2020, the US government invested billions in “Operation Warp Speed” to accelerate the development of mRNA-based coronavirus vaccines, and carried out collaborations between private companies, academic institutions, and military research centers. In May 2025, engaging in the same mechanism became a source of existential fear: companies realized that they could find themselves outside the political bandwagon and perhaps even obliged to drop an economic bomb on their ranks.
Clay Aspach, former CEO of AMM, has described the situation as “existential uncertainty.” Some companies have begun to consider moving clinical trials to friendlier countries or lowering priorities for developing vaccines for infectious diseases in favor of drugs for cancer, autoimmune diseases, and rare diseases that are less vulnerable to the tide of anti-mRNA politics.
The crisis of public trust and the image war
After the rapid COVID-2020 vaccine rollout in XNUMX, fears of a loss of control emerged in extremist circles. Conspiracy campaigns claimed that RNA manipulation was attempting to alter DNA, fueling “medical freedom” movements led by prominent figures such as RFK Jr. and Vinay Prasad, who claimed that “mRNA’s reputation had been severely damaged” and replaced a prominent role at the FDA.
Among other things, amid waves of fake news, movements have begun to propose revoking emergency authorization for mRNA products and cutting NIH funding for COVID-19 projects. The prevailing opinion in other countries, such as Japan and European countries, has strongly supported continued self-development, but in the US, polarization has emerged that has implications for the entire mRNA industry.
Restoring trust and business adaptation
Various initiatives have been launched to rehabilitate the image: RNA biologists at Johns Hopkins University, led by Jeff Coller, have begun a media campaign to highlight the benefits of mRNA in treating chronic diseases and cancer. In addition, the AMM group is preparing to publish a series of opinion pieces that will highlight Trump’s contribution to Operation Warp Speed as an opportunity to return to being “the president who promised to finally defeat cancer” using mRNA.
Private companies have begun to “rebrand”: Moderna changed its website description from “cancer vaccines” to “oncology programs,” and others like Arcturus have emphasized rare and less “high-profile” gene therapy developments as infectious vaccines. However, a government-funded H5N1 large-scale trial is still underway, while the future of larger-scale vaccine production depends on political and governmental developments.
Risks and global market
Currently, about two-thirds of mRNA jobs are concentrated in the US, but experts warn of the risk of activity moving overseas: “In a few years, we will see the technology being taken over by international competitors,” says Alex Wesselhoeft of the Mass General Brigham and Women’s Hospital. At the same time, the global capital market downturn is clouding the ability to raise capital for early-stage research, presenting companies with dual challenges—political and economic.
Despite the upheaval, many of the best scientists believe the technology will attract massive investment as treatments near the end of successful clinical trials. “The science will stand on its own — politics pass, but innovation remains,” concludes Philipp Dormitzer of Pfizer.
It is important to note that about two-thirds of the research on mRNA therapies and drugs is currently being done in the US. These changes are causing scientists in the field to leave the US and open biotech companies elsewhere. According to him, the delay will lead to the unnecessary deaths of millions of people around the world.
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Elie Dolgin, "The unraveling of a miracle molecule", Nature, Vol 641, 15 May 2025
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