It is estimated that as global temperatures continue to rise, climate scientists predict that there will be more storms with severe consequences, and the fear is that what happened this year will become the new norm.
During the day (10/9/17) Hurricane Irma will reach the coast of Florida and continue in the western part of the peninsula as it crosses cities such as Tampa and its winds will flood the Everglades Reserve and also threaten the center of the peninsula and its eastern coast including cities such as Miami and Orlando. At the same time, Hurricane Katia enters the coast of central Mexico, a few hundred kilometers to the west. While in the east, the storm La Jose is getting stronger and it is predicted that it could hit again some of the islands that were hit hard by Irma a few days ago on its way to Florida.
Irma wreaked havoc on many islands in the Caribbean including San Martin, Barbados, Hispaniola (the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti) and Cuba. It will reach Florida when it is a category five, which means winds at a speed of 300 km/h. When in fact all of southwest Florida is not really dry land but a huge area of swamps and lakes not much higher than sea level.
Another damage from the hurricane Jose could harm the reconstruction efforts in the sites where the humanitarian needs are at their peak after many homes and businesses were destroyed by Hurricane Irma which hit the northern Caribbean islands.
The more westerly storm Katia formed last Wednesday in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and is moving toward the southwest as it strengthens toward the state of Veracruz.
"We told you"
The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), which is responsible for monitoring and predicting hurricanes, predicted even before the hurricane season began that this would be a year with a higher than average number of hurricanes.
As global temperatures continue to rise, climate scientists say this is what they expected - more powerful storms with a huge impact on humans.
The forecast was mainly based on the absence of an El Nino event in the tropical Pacific Ocean last year. An El Niño event tends to result in an environment where tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean have difficulty developing. In the absence of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean is higher than normal and a lack of dry air can also trigger the development of hurricanes.
Just one week earlier, Hurricane Harvey hit Texas hard after crossing the entire Gulf of Mexico and gaining strength. Before the start of the season, NOAA estimated that in the 2017 hurricane season, 19-14 tropical storms are expected to make landfall, with up to five hurricane-level storms. It turns out that already halfway through this record was broken when, after Harvey, three storms hit the continent at the same time.
It is estimated that as global temperatures continue to rise, climate scientists predict that there will be more storms with severe consequences, and the fear is that what happened this year will become the new norm.
If Hurricane Harvey had occurred at the end of the 20th century, the amount of rain that fell in one storm would then have been considered rare - a once in two thousand year event, says Kerry Emanuel, professor of atmospheric sciences at MIT. But as temperatures continue to rise, these rare events become less rare, he said.
There are countless reasons why a particular storm develops the way it does, including a combination of natural and man-made factors. This makes it difficult to assess how much global warming is playing a role in the development of a specific storm, but because scientists are constantly improving their models. Hurricane scientists are convinced that the physics behind the storm is that warmer temperatures are among the factors that cause storms to form.
According to the American National Climate Assessment for 2014, the intensity and frequency of hurricanes in the North Atlantic Ocean has increased since the 4s, and the frequency of strong storms - in category 5 and XNUMX has also increased.
NOAA publishes an annual hurricane forecast each spring for the hurricane season that begins on June 1. This year, the agency updated the forecast in August expecting more storms, in part due to warming sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic Ocean that were between half a degree and above average this summer. These high temperatures, as well as higher temperatures in the atmosphere, feed the storms and help them grow stronger. One study based on twenty years of data found that hurricanes are strengthening faster than they did in the past. For example, a storm can reach Category 3 winds nine hours earlier than in the XNUMXs.
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For information on the subject, visit the INSIDE CLIMATE NEWS website
More of the topic in Hayadan:
Comments
You can't argue with data, Israel was also hit by a drought, only in our country they managed to pour water. Here, despite all the corruption, the government still has an obligation to the citizens.
The fact that it developed into a civil war in 2011 and not before because they saw the success in Egypt.
The riots in Damascus did not start because of a lack of food or because of a drought.
The Arab Spring also did not start because of lack of food or drought, as did the religious extremism in the Muslim world, and the rise of Daesh.
And this is not something related to this period precisely, because revolutions break out in dictatorial countries when the ruler shows signs of weakness.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/10/hurricane-irma-harvey-climate-change-trump
hot or nice
These are probabilities, not exact numbers. If you look at a number of years at a time, you will see it constantly.
Again a duplication of the message page of the Knights of denial of the connection between smoking and cancer - the Heartland Institute, I am not convinced by them in other areas either.
Unfortunately, nature was not convinced either, and there were many tropical storms that caused damage, with all due respect to the USA, it is not the benchmark for the whole world.
my father
my father
Read for your pleasure:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00669-3
If it is true that warming has contributed to the increase in hurricanes, then let them explain why in 2014-2016 there was a minority of hurricanes in general and also much less than the forecast that said there would be more than average. In other words, in the last 4 years NOAA predicted at the beginning of the season that there would be more hurricanes and that they would be stronger due to the heat of the water and global warming and out of 4 years they were right once - this year. How seriously should I take their predictions and explanations? Their ability to predict is more similar to the ability to predict all kinds of gurus in the capital market who every year shout that this year will be a landslide and once every 7 or 8 years they are right
by my father -
I must have been blocked completely.
It is acceptable to notify a block by email at least
I just wasted time writing comments that don't appear at all
Who does not.
Ori. To understand what happened in Syria you don't have to go far, just stick your nose out the window. For over twenty years the Middle East has suffered from droughts and heat waves. While in Israel they learned lessons and started raining water, in Syria they did not do this and the desert caused a decrease in agricultural produce which led to food riots in Damascus which is anyway a city on the edge of the desert and sensitive to every millimeter of rain.
These riots were the leading cause of the civil war that resulted in refugees. With all due respect to Hillel Gershoni, who recites the Heartland Institute's message page about things that did not exist and were not created such as the hurricane drought. The fact that hurricanes did not hit the United States does not mean that there were no strong hurricanes (or typhoons). The United States is only a tiny percentage of the Earth's surface. Not everything should be measured only by its impact on the US. There have been very strong tropical storms in the last decade.
The Heartland Institute, for those who don't know, also denies to this day the connection between smoking and cancer, and the connection between what its people do and science is absolutely coincidental. They just babble something in scientific jargon that suits the needs of those who pay them.
Eat shit with your crazy climate change
Herzl:
The problem is that even if the situation was different, the title was the same title and the reason was the same reason.
If there is global warming then of course any change in weather is because of it.
But the war in Syria is also because of her.
Even if an ice age suddenly arrives, it will be because of global warming - and there is already such a theory ready in store in case there is a cooling and then they can blame the warming for the cooling as well.
https://www.hayadan.org.il/global-warming-will-freeze-earth-110808
Sorry if I'm repeating myself because the comments disappear for me, they don't even go to wait for censorship, that's why I'm repeating them.
Nissim: I did not write such a thing.
You don't answer my question either
Why don't you think it is excessive to blame a tenth of a degree of warming on hurricanes? In the rise of the US and in the melting of all the glaciers in Antarctica and the flooding of the world with water? etc?
And that these exaggerations only harm the credibility of the subject?
Miracles
I also don't understand why you ask me such a question, because I don't remember saying such a thing to you.
On the other hand, I do not receive any satisfactory answer to my questions from you
for example
On the subject of the article and the statements of the politicians on the connection between Israel and global warming.
Or the apocalyptic prophecy that all the glaciers in Antarctica will melt and the sea will flood the cities of the world.
Or the earth will be as hot as Venus.
Don't you really think that all these apocalyptic prophecies are a bit exaggerated, and that the exaggerations only damage credibility?
https://tinyurl.com/ybh5fkgr
There is a reference in the article to the article here
Vigdor Rechnitz
what were you trying to say If you don't understand why I'm asking something, then don't interfere.
It turns out that since there have been records it has never happened that two category 4 hurricanes reached the US mainland in one year. This year two arrived 16 days apart. And we're only in the middle of hurricane season.
'Fake-news' miracles: "The correct term is "geoid". The earth is not spherical."
From Wikipedia:
"The shape of the Earth is complex and cannot be described by a simple shape such as a sphere (see: Gauid below)."
"Approximately, the shape of the Earth can be described by an ellipsoid, the length of half of its long axis at the equator (radius of the Earth at the equator) is 6378.137 km, its eccentricity is 0.0818 and its radius at the poles (half of the short axis) is 6356.8 km."
Miracles
For some reason it seems that you are the chaff!
my father
The correct term is "geoid". The earth is not spherical. But you know you're just spreading chaff, as usual.
And you really didn't answer the question. Why are you convinced that the earth is round?
for miracles
Because of global warming, because of the melting of the glaciers or because of Trump.
As the saying goes: "The world stands on three things."
By the way, the correct term is spherical.
No, I'm not rowing there.
Maybe in some sense yes - that there are absolute laws that we currently do not have the ability to recognize them, to grasp them.
If that's what you mean, then yes, that's what I see as the next progress and development.
in what?
Not that we have to change anything external.
I ask everyone
When a volcano erupts - what is the source of its eruption?
Are these the stones on the mountain? Maybe the shape of the bumps that are visible on the mountain?
Or is it the heat stored in the depths of the earth?
Has anyone heard of the core of the earth?
So what's the connection?
We also have layers of recognition.
There are known laws, putting your hand in the fire will cause a burn, you jumped from the Eiffel Tower, you probably won't survive.
but…. There are other rules. They are more hidden, you can say that they are in the depth of our consciousness and therefore we have not yet discovered that they exist.
what is it about?
For having roots!
We haven't achieved them yet!
We live in this world and associate this world, which is full of results, to different causes, different sources, for example: the hurricane happened because the earth warmed.
I'm not saying it's not true, but I claim that we will discover that the warming of the earth is also a cause, it is in the same chain, that its root, its source is only one: man!
Human correction. Not only at the educational level (which we will all agree on), but at the level of internal change, my consciousness, my cognition. At a level where we will discover that just as a developed brain is a brain in which the amount of wiring between its neurons is large, so we will have to discover the law of connection, that a developed society is a society that has fixed something from the inside, (can't explain now), and in the connection between them they create a common field.
Again - I'm getting to a point where it's hard for me to continue because I'm afraid of being misunderstood... sorry.
God told the world not to light a fire on the Sabbath
It is ecological.
We didn't hear, we will be kidnapped! simple
And what is the reason for the reason???
What is really the primary source of natural phenomena?
Today, we lack the ability to connect who we are, our thoughts, intentions, desires. and what happens in nature.
If you had asked 500 years ago about our world being a global village, you would probably have been taken as not serious.
And now, after realizing that our world is a global village, that there is a butterfly effect, that there is such a thing as the wisdom of crowds.
What will be the next revelation?
Will it be significant?
What we have not yet discovered is that there is a connection between what is hidden from us, that place within us from which our intentions and thoughts come, and all the phenomena that occur in the world.
The hidden that connects the mind, which is physical, and our thoughts, which are abstract. And we still haven't been able to figure out what it is.
Sure say, lol. Another person who pretends to perceive himself as a researcher. A philosopher who talks about abstract things as if they were real, as if they were valid and objective, as if they had a reference and the ability to self-examine.
And my answer is: we will discover that the most sophisticated laboratory is not outside of us. This lab is us!!!
I won't go on because I'm sure that at least some of us will enjoy it with dissatisfaction.
But of one thing I am sure
All wisdom ends in revelation. Because that is the course of development in nature, whose actions are the ones that will push humanity forward. The agony, the suffering, the bad feeling, is the one that will make humanity think of new and creative solutions and even gain new insights. And only the one that on the one hand will arouse the most opposition and on the other hand will succeed in verifying and "bringing proofs", is the one that can call itself a paradigm.
my father
Why do you think the earth is round?
And I really wrote that there is no point in talking about it, but I think that the exaggerations and inaccuracies are strategically harmful to the issue of environmental quality, which is an important issue to me.
Miracles my dear
You probably know that scientists also write hypotheses, untested theories, and guesses and many times there are scientific articles that contradict each other.
And articles, even if they are written in English in a journal that is considered scientific, do not always convince me.
For example, not long ago I read an article that explains the connection between the rise of ISIS in Syria and global warming, and I was not convinced.
my father
You are a tireless denier …. Didn't you say there was no point in talking about it anymore?
I can only suggest you read some scientific articles and stop calling the woman…. Or are you unable to?
It is interesting how you explain the formation of a hurricane caused by an increase of a tenth of a degree.
"Butterfly wings economy" already sounds like a more logical explanation for this storm.
"Everything is because of the occupation" - familiar to you?! The trite sentence that helped turn the left from pragmatic to "illusory", and the right from messianic and delusional to "just and pragmatic".
Just as "everything is because of the occupation" so is "everything because of global warming" - this is another unfounded exaggeration, which only lowers the credibility of us "supporters of global warming" (of which I am also one) and helps deniers and conspiracy theorists, the president of the United States, the oil drillers, to the coal miners, and the Hadera power station.
Climate engineering is when you do something on purpose to get a certain result. I don't think the coal burner from a century ago that contributed to global warming meant that. Neither are you when you're driving a car.
It's called climate engineering.
Nostradamus
enough and enough!
You destroy the fantasy of the common and despised leftist... :))
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6n6afpnIS4g