A McKinsey report reveals how artificial intelligence and advanced technologies will shape the job market and professional trends by 2030.
McKinsey published last year A comprehensive report on the future of work, with several particularly interesting predictions. Although they are afraid to commit to a period longer than the next five years - which says something about the pace of change today - but at least for this period of time they have some fascinating insights to share with us.
For example, in the fastest adoption scenario of artificial intelligence, about sixty percent of the current working hours in Europe will be taken over by machines... within five years from now.
Before you enter into the discussion, it is important to clarify that this is the optimistic scenario, in which all the stars line up in exactly the right way. Things like this don't usually happen. In the slowest scenario, however, a single-digit percentage of work hours will be automated. And what about the United States? There, the base scenario is clearer, according to McKinsey: by 2030, approximately thirty percent of working hours will be spent on machine maintenance.
We like to focus on 2030 in predictions. It's a fun round number. But the rest of the graph tells a unique story in itself. First, even if the base scenario is correct and in five years 30 percent of the tasks will be automated, after that we can expect a serious jump in pace. Barely three years later, the proportion of hours occupied by machines will already reach forty percent. Nine years later, in about 2042, we will reach sixty percent of all working hours.
I'll repeat this statement to make sure it's clear to you: in about 18 years, sixty percent of all working hours today will be taken over by machines. And that's in the base scenario. In the fast scenario, the number would be closer to ninety percent of all working hours. But even in the slowest scenario, the overall trend is clear: by 2080, machines will take the place of humans in ninety percent of the hours they currently spend at work.
And again I say: no panic. Yes, even when you see that in the fastest scenario, almost all working hours go to machine maintenance by 2050. Why? Because it is working hours in the current situation. Working hours of professions that exist today. Professions will change, and new fields will be opened in which humans bring more value than machines. And not only that, but when the machines can occupy half of the working hours, it is quite possible that what will happen is that we will find new tasks to fill our 'free' time - and demand payment for them as well.
What is certain is that change is on the way, and we need to prepare for it.
The change in professions
Well, what change will there be? First of all, the mix of professions will undergo an upheaval. The trivial point is that an increase of up to thirty percent is expected in the health professions: doctors, brothers and sisters, technicians and assistants and any other profession that touches health. Why is it trivial? Because this growth does not come thanks to technology, but simply because the population is aging. More older people need more tests, more treatments, more assistance at home - and more health professionals to provide them with all these services.
The more interesting growth appears in the fields of science and technology, where the amount of employment is expected to increase by 16-23 percent. For the proportions, this is a jump of more than two times compared to the growth of the other fields, except for medicine. We see, in fact, how people with high skill levels in the fields of technology - who usually have a master's or third degree - are able to provide great value, and therefore they are more in demand. Every new and successful idea they have, which is researched and implemented, is translated into products and services that can reach the general public of consumers, and bring in flying capital for the company along the way. And so, there is more demand for professionals in the fields of science and technology.
The other professions that will experience growth can be divided into two categories: management and physical work. There is no need to explain why there is a greater need for managers: they take responsibility, supervise many human employees, and as the economy grows and there are more initiatives - the more managers are needed. At least, of course, until 2030. In the more distant future, it seems clear that a large part of the management work will also be automated. But at least for now, it's safe territory.
On the other hand, there is a need for workers in the physical world. why? Because it is more difficult to set up robots that will perform complex tasks in the open air. And so, we will need more builders, house maintainers, taxi and bus drivers, plumbers, solar panel installers and community service providers of all kinds. These jobs are also relatively safe for the next five years.
Which professions will be affected? According to McKinsey's analysis, there will be two major areas that will suffer severely in the next five years. The first is customer service and sales, which will experience a decrease of approximately 13 percent. The second is the field of office support of all kinds, which declined by 18 percent. In both cases, the reason is mainly the appearance of the creative artificial intelligence, which is able to perform complex tasks: writing, translation, conversations with customers, technical support and more. In total, it can be expected that in the next five years, approximately 6-7 percent of the workforce will have to change professions.
The change in skills
What about the skills? What skills will be required in the new economy of 2030?
We finally have artificial intelligence that can achieve human-like results in simple cognitive tasks, and it is only expected to continue to improve. This means that there will be less need for basic cognitive skills, of the kind that are required mainly in the areas of office support and customer service. In general, these are skills such as basic data analysis, reading and writing, and the ability to work with numbers. We will also see a more moderate decrease in the need for advanced cognitive skills: writing and reading at a high level, and even data analysis and statistics. Artificial intelligence will allow many people to perform tasks in these areas at a reasonable level, without being equipped with the required knowledge.
What will the employees need? Mainly technological skills, so that they can use all the impressive tools that the future will make available to them. In addition, they will also be required for social and emotional skills, with empathy and leadership and leadership abilities. This is not surprising, since these are the abilities that managers and medical professionals need to demonstrate - and these, as we said, will exist in abundance.
Last but not least, the employees will need the abilities of creativity, adaptation, entrepreneurship and critical and scientific thinking, which will serve them in all fields and in all professions. Oh, and also skills that will help them teach and train others, for a simple reason: when many so-so need to acquire new skills, those who can help them with this, will be especially in demand.
But let's go back to the technological skills for a moment. Unfortunately, there is likely to be a significant shortage of these skills. Already today, forty percent of managers complain that they have difficulty finding employees with knowledge and experience in information technology, programming, advanced data analysis, and mathematics. The demand for these skills - which are rare to begin with - is expected to rise sharply, so that it can be expected that in five years, it will be even more difficult to find workers in these fields.
In short, the most required and rare skills today - will continue to be so even in the next five years.
How are companies going to deal with this problem? In three ways: the managers surveyed intend to retrain approximately one-third of all employees in their companies, hire another 23 percent, and hire another 18 percent as contract workers. The companies will develop internal programs to retrain employees, provide mentoring and training, and even partner with academic institutions to ensure that these teach and acquire skills that are required in the market. And that's a good thing.
And maybe the technology that leads to all these changes will also help us get the most out of them.
The artificial intelligence that will retrain people
After McKinsey finishes scaring us about the new skills we'll need to acquire to stay relevant in the industry (at least until the robots take over all fields), they state that it can also help us all acquire those skills.
"[Creative artificial intelligence]... can reshape training from general courses, to a personalized and interactive journey," the report claims, adding that such training could - "provide an answer to specific skill gaps and prepare employees for challenges."
Artificial intelligence will be able to help create and adapt study programs that identify and focus on the educational needs and skill gaps of each employee. It will be able to synthesize the new and abundant content that employees need to acquire, into small, personalized packages of information, which will be delivered to learners at the right and most suitable times for them. It is quite possible that such training will be carried out while performing the work itself, so that artificial intelligence can help employees understand what they should do - and also understand how and why they should do it.
Last but not least, the artificial intelligence will be able to understand in real time and all the time, what is the state of knowledge of the employee. She will know how much he really understands the material, and what level he has reached in the new skills he needs to acquire.
These recommendations for integrating artificial intelligence into the curriculum come alongside a real success story. At least one company in the United States, which encountered difficulties in retraining employees, created an "AI assistant", which relied on all the information that the company transferred to it. The assistant assisted the workers in acquiring the new skills and in the learning process, and gave them advice and support while they were doing the work itself. And the result? Employee efficiency increased by 15 percent, overall productivity increased by twenty percent, and the company as a whole jumped in value by about 15 percent.
Summary
McKinsey's report brings good news to anyone who thought artificial intelligence would replace us all in the near future. It won't. At least not in the near future. Just the opposite, in fact. The main recommendation of McKinsey - perhaps the most respected consulting firm in the world - is that companies need to understand how technology progress and what will be the skill gaps of the employees in the coming years. After doing this, the companies should invest, invest, invest. They should actually make the training Humanity is a top priority: both for lower level employees, and for the managers themselves.
And the workers? They should be ready for this retraining, and even ask and demand it from the companies. Today more than ever, those who do not move forward with the times will be left behind. And when the rate of change increases so quickly - and I remind you of the jump in the expected automation of working hours between 2030 and 2033 only - those who are not ready to run, may find that they are stuck in quicksand.
Have you always wanted to acquire a new skill? learn to program? work with computers? Develop management skills and creativity?
it's time
Successfully!
More of the topic in Hayadan:
