Falcon 9 stage likely hit the moon; confirmation will come from orbiting spacecraft images

The upper stage, which launched in January 2025 and remained in a high-Earth orbit, was expected to impact near Einstein Crater at a speed of about 8,700 km/h. No immediate confirmation was received for an impact observation, and NASA will search for a new crater with an estimated diameter of about 18 meters.

Used upper stage of a launcher Falcon 9 Of the company SpaceX Probably hit on Wednesday morning, August 5, 2026, in front of The moonThe impact was calculated at 06:35 Universal Time, 09:35 in Israel, in the area near the Einstein and Bell craters on the western edge of the moon.

The event was not immediately confirmed by direct observation. The impact point was near the edge of the moon as seen from Earth, and the ground at the site was illuminated by sunlight. Both conditions make it difficult to discern a brief flash or dust cloud against the bright lunar surface. Professional and amateur astronomers who attempted to track the event did not report any clear detection in the first few hours.

This does not mean that the impact did not occur. The trajectory calculations were based on more than a thousand observations, and the center NASA The Near-Earth Object Research Center determined that the probability of impact reached 100%. Final confirmation is expected to come through a comparison of photographs of the area before and after the event.

The object, cataloged 2025-010D, was the second stage of a Falcon 9 rocket that launched on January 15, 2025. The rocket carried two private lunar landers: Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost 1 and iSpace's Japanese Resilience lander. After completing its mission to accelerate the spacecraft toward the Moon, the stage remained in a high, elongated orbit around Earth.

Unlike the phases of low-orbit missions, which can usually be directed to a controlled reentry, this phase did not have enough propulsion left to change its fate. The gravitational effects of the Earth, Moon, and Sun, along with the weak but cumulative pressure of solar radiation, gradually changed its trajectory. After about a year and a half, it returned to the lunar vicinity on the trajectory that led to the collision.

Astronomer Bill Gray, who developed software for tracking asteroids and spacecraft, calculated that the stage would hit the ground at a speed of about 2.43 kilometers per second – about 8,700 km/h. The uncertainty in the impact point was estimated at only a few kilometers, and in the time of impact at a few seconds. The target location was calculated to be near Einstein Crater, in the Mamilla crater-stricken area.

The Moon does not have a significant atmosphere to slow the object down before impact. According to NASA assessmentThe stage, which weighed about four tons, was expected to create a crater about 18 meters in diameter and about four meters deep. Surface material and parts of the stage were expected to scatter around the impact point.

Despite the impressive numbers, this is not a very unusual event in lunar terms. According to NASA, a natural meteoroid with a similar impact energy hits the moon on average once every six days. The difference is that in this case, the origin of the object, its estimated composition, mass, and trajectory are known – and therefore this is an opportunity to calibrate models of crater formation and dust dispersion.

The orbit of the moon LRO NASA and ShadowCam, the American camera installed on the South Korean satellite Danuri, are expected to attempt to photograph the area. It may be days before one of the spacecraft passes over the impact site under suitable imaging conditions. Identifying a new crater will also allow us to measure the distance to which the material has spread.

A launch vehicle crash into the Moon is not unprecedented. In 2022, a launch vehicle stage attributed to the Chinese Chang'e 5-T1 lunar mission hit the Moon, leaving two craters nearby. NASA has also intentionally dropped spacecraft and launch vehicle stages onto the Moon in the past, including as part of the LCROSS mission, to study the material ejected from the ground.

The current event does not pose a threat to Earth. However, it highlights a growing problem: the movement of artificial objects in the space between Earth and the Moon is not monitored and regulated to the same degree as the activity of satellites in low orbit. As the number of lunar missions increases, it will be necessary to plan in advance for the end of launch stages, spacecraft, and landers – especially as manned and robotic facilities operate on the Moon in the future.

It is also important to distinguish between two related problems: the density of satellites and space debris in Earth orbits, versus objects in high, cross-lunar orbits. The Falcon 9 stage did not fall out of the dense satellite belt above Earth, but rather traveled for months in Earth-Moon space, where even large objects can be difficult to track continuously.

Questions and Answers

Has the damage already been confirmed? Not yet in direct photography. According to trajectory calculations, it occurred with a very high probability, but we must wait for photographs of the impact site.

Why is lightning not visible from Earth? The impact point was near the edge of the moon and in a well-lit area. The light reflected from the ground makes it difficult to identify a brief flash or dust cloud.

Does the event endanger the Earth? No. The stage was on a lunar impact trajectory and posed no danger to the population or satellites around Earth.

Why couldn't the injury have been prevented? After the mission was completed, the stage was without useful maneuverability. Prevention requires early planning of a disposal trajectory, such as a controlled crash, re-entry into the atmosphere, or transition to a stable orbit around the Sun.

More on the subject on the science website

• Second private landing on the moon: Blue Ghost lands safely
• Private Japanese probe to attempt moon landing
• The amount of space debris in Earth's orbit and on the moon will increase – but no one is responsible for it
• The Beresheet spacecraft crashed after falling at high speed from an altitude of ten kilometers.
• The race to mine resources on the moon has already begun – and it requires rules of the game.

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