The ability of humans to live for hundreds of years will have extraordinary consequences in all areas of life on Earth.
The latest discovery that excites the world of science and humanity in general is the possibility that a group of scientists managed to discover the holy grail of the fountain of youth, A scientific breakthrough that will ensure a very long and healthy life and possibly even eternal life in the future. Researchers from Harvard University Medical School managed to turn old mice into young ones.
Human development has reached an exponential acceleration in countless areas. We are literally coming out of the depths of the jungles into the open spaces. In the past it was said that the amount of human knowledge doubles every seven years, nowadays apparently no one really knows anymore. Estimates say that due to the Internet, the amount of human information (not knowledge) doubles every year and a half! These are examples that illustrate the current time of tremendous acceleration in the scope of knowledge and information available to us. A substantial extension of human life will come sooner or later - science strives for it, pharmaceutical companies strive for it, and there are many people who strive for it and are willing to pay huge sums of money in order to realize the dream of eternal life or almost eternal life.
The ability of humans to live for hundreds of years will have extraordinary consequences in all areas of life on Earth. The spectrum of the discussion is very broad, but we will focus here on a limited number of economic consequences, which apparently seem quite scary. If people stopped dying, how many people could our planet hold? When and where will we reach a situation of unbearable population density, when will our resources be exhausted?
Population density - the physical problem
A central claim comes and says that soon there will no longer be enough physical space for the human population under the sun. This claim, in my opinion, has no factual basis, how? Humans in different parts of the world manage to live densely in huge cities while leaving huge spaces for settlement. In fact, the potential of urbanization still remains huge and numerous. If we take the densest country in the world: Singapore, for example, is a country where almost 5 million people live on 710 square kilometers. This is a fantastic and crazy density of 7,050 people per square kilometer! Hong Kong has an incredible density of 6,300 people per square meter. In Taiwan there are 640 people per square meter, in South Korea 490 people per square meter and in the Netherlands 400 people per square meter. In Israel, by comparison, 370 people per square kilometer live within the borders of the Green Line. In the Palestinian Authority, including Gaza, which is known for its high density, there are 670 people per square kilometer, similar to Taiwan. In Singapore the number of people per square meter will soon be 20 times higher than in Israel!
Singapore is a very orderly and strict country and that's how it probably succeeds. Of course, it must be remembered that in the case of Singapore, it is held at the back of neighboring countries that provide it with food resources and agricultural products that require a lot of land.
Therefore, in a conservative analysis, let's assume that in a normal country it will be possible to hold no more than 20% of the density of Singapore, which means about 1,400 people per square meter, this is in dense cities, designed in an ultra-modern and particularly efficient way, very efficient in terms of transportation, energy, in terms of water transmission, Waste and sewage and high-rise buildings As mentioned, already today, there are developed countries such as Taiwan, South Korea and the Netherlands that the density in them is about 30% to 40% of the number mentioned. These are countries that are far from collapsing due to a lack of physical space, in a country like Israel there is enough room for a population of almost 4 times the situation, meaning almost 30 million people "B, with a population density of only 32 persons per square meter today, 13.5 billion people will be able to live there, twice as many as Current world population.
These examples prove to us that it is possible to significantly increase the number of people living in almost every country in the world and that physical space is not the problem currently facing humanity even if the possibility of almost eternal life is presented.
livelihood resources
We have shown that physical space is not the problem humanity will face, what about subsistence resources of food and water? Malthus was already gravely mistaken back in 1798 when he assumed in his famous article "On the Principle of Population", that an unbridled growth of the population at an engineering rate, when the food supply increased at an accounting rate, would eventually lead to a catastrophe and a great famine that would lead to the reduction of the population. Not many years since he published his article, the industrial revolution appeared which managed to push back the end, at least in the western world, by means of mass production and countless patents. In many countries there is no shortage of food, at least for the majority of the population, even after the number of people in the world has increased by tens of thousands in the 212 years since Malthus's prediction. Why should we think that this situation will change? In a world where cows, pigs and sheep are raised like a moving film, in a world where they manage to overcome almost all the plant diseases that once made a name for agricultural crops, in a world where mechanical, chemical and biological means succeed in steadily increasing the amount of vegetables and fruits per acre every year, in a world where they manage to raise fish in quantities large in terrestrial ponds or in huge cages in the sea. As far as water is concerned, the desalination plants are an instructive demonstration of how the human population can in the future rely on seawater as a source for drinking and even for industry and agriculture. The technology exists, is developing and is becoming cheaper at an increasing rate and there is no shortage of sea water. This is a resource that countries will be forced to invest a lot of money in, if only because of a lack of choice (countries always find budgets to arm themselves with weapons, when it becomes an existential need, they will also find budgets for water...).
energy resources
Here we come to a more difficult problem. Will energy resources be given up for such large populations of humans living for hundreds of years? As we know, the world's energy resources are rapidly depleting. Here too I believe in human ability. As soon as the price of a barrel of oil crosses a certain limit, a tremendous economic drive is created among countries as well as business companies to strive for alternative solutions of all possible types. These solutions will be related to alternatives to oil and coal, to improving existing energy production processes, innovative developments in the field of energy storage, energy utilization and energy saving. The beam in the field of solar cells can be taken as an example. The constant improvements in this field have increased the utilization of a solar cell by about 20% on average in the last ten years and new developments in the pipeline promise a much more dramatic utilization. In the field of energy saving, there is a constant decrease in the energy waste of many electrical devices, vehicles and industrial machines.
Birth rationing and black market
In spite of everything that has been said so far, it can be assumed that in the distant future, in a world where life extension technology will be available and cheap and anyone who wishes to do so will be able to finance the extension of his life two times three times and even more - a birth allowance will be created. The reason for this will be to prevent a situation in which dense countries will pass the same threshold of, say, 1,400 people per square meter, a threshold above which a systemic collapse will begin. It is possible that these countries will force every person interested in receiving injections to extend their telomeres (suppose this will be the leading rejuvenation technology) to sign A contract with the state that he is not allowed to have more than one child in his lifetime. In a futuristic modern world where many will settle for one child or Even less so (trends prevailing in a significant part of the rich countries of the western world already), such a signing would not be seen as something problematic, if at all. There would probably be a trade of selling contracts between people who still have the right to give birth to a child but are willing to give up this right in exchange for an amount Money that they will receive from those who wish to have more children but are also interested in receiving the injections. A black market will probably also be created for those who would like to get the injections but will not Eligible for this because they already have more than one child.
Dr. Adam Reuter - Chairman of Reuter Midan Investment House and CEO of the consulting company Hashon Finance
On the same topic on the science website
22 תגובות
Really unrealistic article. The reference here is always positive how the problem is solved. There is no reference to the negative in any of the subjects, and there are many... First of all, you have to understand that the human mind is not capable of understanding what it really means to live for hundreds of years - just as it is impossible to digest what a light year is. As long as people haven't experienced it firsthand, we don't know what will happen. Meaning sentences like I will be bored or what will happen to the pension, they are completely ridiculous.
With great crowding comes great disease.
New diseases will appear and the edge of their transmission will increase
Maintain integrity and it will give a boost to faster evolution.
Instead of "signing a contract with the state that he is not allowed to have more than one child in his lifetime"
Assuming there is advanced technology for rejuvenation, they could simply add a sterilization function to the injection as well.
(or take a sperm/egg to the custody of the state/regulator)
There are many people who have no desire to live even 30 years, and within a hundred years people will get tired of living
For 16 (Tiktalik)….
I have no idea what story Itzik C. was referring to. But if the topic interests you, then there is a book in Hebrew (a play) called: "Blues" written by a writer named: Yaakov Cohen. Today, the book can be found in libraries or second hand stores, and in my opinion it is wonderful.
Very briefly: the book tells about a city where eternal life is lived, and what happens when a stranger stumbles into the place.
Interesting article
I still think that the main change will come precisely from the psychological side and at the level of human behavior that has developed according to the model that life is transient and it is impossible to anticipate the effects of such a change.
Laitzik c.
I would love to know the name of the book you read and who wrote it. The topic is very intriguing and interests me
You beat Monaco - 16,779 people per square kilometer!
I think we are still far from that, but this will be our problems.
In terms of pensions - you can think of many much nicer models such as cycles of working periods: you work like this for years, go to such and such years off and further training (you can completely change professions) and God forbid.
From her mind, that's exactly the problem...
To think at the age of 20 .. ahhh .. how fun I have another 160 years until retirement .. then I'll start enjoying life...
By the way, this is a phenomenon that also exists.. of early retirement and changing professions every few years..
When they set the retirement age at 65, this age was so extreme that only a few reached it, and were able to live after it in the relative comfort of the pension. Today is the middle of life...
By the way pension.. if you live forever as young people.. the idea does not make any sense... work earn enough money retire... go back to work etc...
Why did they take it from me today for the benefit of... help me so that I won't need it tomorrow - and at this point... today at the extreme age of 35... when we assume eternal life in 50 years... I'm not sure that it's not a waste of the sterile money... to put money aside... for old age May you never arrive..
Today the age of death is increasing at a high rate. And what is more interesting is that it accelerates so that it will soon reach our growth rate (year by year) and according to this it is possible that people have already been born today.. and maybe they are not even children anymore.. Only as a result of such a change in rate they will never die and never retire..
If science allowed people to live 200 years as young people most of the time, they wouldn't retire at age 70
But at the age of 180..
Tzachi
I once read a story from the science fiction in which people live eternal life without diseases, difficulties and problems of any kind and its right is entitled to how many people it is to die an official death.
And the one who tries to take his life with his own hands is brought back to life and his punishment is to continue living for many more years.
I imagine myself 280 years old already in retirement 200 years or so on the coming Seder night I will sit with about 500 members of my family according to the calculations of science I have another 500 years of this boredom expected of me I have already written I have read I have created I have slept I have loved I have hated more than enough
Death suddenly seems to me to be something magical, logical and very, very natural
I enjoy 70 years
Lagley:
The idea is less the specific research and more the expeditions of a similar discovery.. and such will come with a high probability in the foreseeable future.
Daniel:
Maybe in the first stage .. but what is the point of sourcing an expensive medicine for a few people with the possibility of sourcing a slightly less expensive medicine for many people .. this is what happens in any similar field...
I think that not enough attention is paid to the mindset of the company for such a change... so it's good that there is a discussion..
Toffler predicted complex effects on society in an era of change from an industrial world to a world of information .. and the amazing thing is that 30 years ago he accurately predicted the change that happened to them the "third wave" (after the agricultural revolution and the industrial revolution) and showed that people suffer future shock when their social readiness is not suitable for the changes So far-reaching in society - for example: my mother who is unable to find "steadiness" in my work when I change jobs like many high-tech people every Two years.. , another case. Changes in the role of the school as a preparation for life, and a change in the ideal example for the family "(Father, mother, 3 children, compared to today's complex family structure - divorce, same-sex marriage, etc.)
All of this suited the information revolution, what will happen if there will be a "revolution of eternal life" .. what is the chance of a young person influencing the world of adults (whose number and proportion in the population is increasing and increasing) .. if they never go to the world or leave their position .. how will humanity sew the itself.. which mechanisms will replace the current evolution.. how science will progress with the old paradigms remaining stuck with their creators.
mentioned N.C. the pension.. what do you do with an early retirement of 200 years according to death .. how do you fill this time..
If any disease or medical problem can be cured.. will a life of taking risks, overcome
A common existence 40 year old crisis How many crises are there who live eternal life.
You might think that science has already overcome all diseases! Beyond the fact that many people die from diseases every day, it is known that population density also increases mortality from diseases. Until science learns to cure the flu, or understand the resistance of viruses and bacteria, any economic prophecy is unnecessary.
It is unbelievable that the writer assumes that a person's desire to live "eternal life" outweighs the basic biological need of every human being to reproduce. My lesson from the article is that it turns out that all the arguments for reducing the birth rate are nonsense, because when it comes to "eternal life" it is already fine.
Completely ignoring the problems of population density such as: high energy consumption that will lead to further warming and destruction of habitats, loss of land due to sea level rise, lack of rainfall with all its consequences, and environmental pollution loss of habitats and thousands of species have we already talked about? And in the end: the article suits its author who is all about money and money and thinks that everything can be fixed with money. Mistake!
Gali, I don't agree, if this is indeed the case, then they showed more than that, they showed that the aging process is reversible.
It is about restoring damaged tissue. That is, the mice were born with damaged telomeres (or they made such mice with damaged telomeres in the laboratory) and this caused them a disease in which they aged terribly faster than usual. And the researchers were able to restore their telomeres and then their rate of aging slowed down. In other words, the researchers were able to cure their disease.
It's not that the researchers turned them from old to young, but the researchers succeeded by genetic engineering to cure their disease. The result is that mice that aged too quickly due to disease became young again when they were cured.
Therefore the consequences of the research are not necessarily what you describe. but more medical implications for the ability of researchers to solve genetic problems in medicine.
exciting. Thanks. but…
Unless you are billionaires, or geniuses on the scale of Hawking and Einstein, I don't think you have anything to worry about. The above treatments cannot be included in the medicine basket...
First of all, an excellent article, points that I thought about myself quite a bit following the exposure to the amazing ideas of Ray Kurzweil ("The Singularity") regarding the future of humanity and the real possibility of eternal life already in the coming decades.
In addition to what has been said here, there are many more unused spaces that can be inhabited by humans, from deserts, to floating islands, as well as underwater construction, high-rise construction and underground cities, then space stations, inhabiting the moon and Mars...
According to Ray Kurzweil, it is also very possible that at some point we will move to live inside a computer (we will transfer our consciousness there) and then we will completely disconnect from the need for food and other material resources necessary for a biological body...
In short, we probably have a fascinating future ahead of us!
The article ignores perhaps the most important parameter: let's say a person retired at the age of 114, and will live another 150 years as a pensioner. Which plan can pay a pension for 100-200 years?