The European Southern Observatory (ESO) tracked the asteroid with the Very Large Telescope in Chile and reached a more accurate prediction of the trajectory of the asteroid that threatened to destroy entire cities. * In recent weeks, calculations have been made according to which the chance of an impact ranges from 1% to 2.3%.
Innovative observations with the European Southern Observatory's (ESO) Very Large Telescope in collaboration with astronomical facilities around the world have shed significant light on the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4, virtually eliminating the risk of its collision with Earth.
The asteroid, with an estimated diameter of about 40 to 90 meters, was discovered at the end of December last year in an orbit that caused real concerns – before high risk rates were seen so far, which arose when the chance of a collision on December 22, 2032 reached about 3%, the highest value recorded for a body of this size. Over the past few months, international teams have focused on monitoring the asteroid, with the initial data they received raising real concerns and leading to the activation of international warning systems, within the framework of the International Asteroid Warning Network. In these steps, the most advanced measurement tools were used – data collected by FORS2 and HAWK-I, among others, contributed to a deep understanding of the asteroid’s orbit and dramatically reduced environmental uncertainty. Thus, beyond the initial concerns, many clarifications emerged and demonstrated the importance of using highly sensitive instruments, which allow researchers to fine-tune trajectory calculations to an almost perfect level.
The data received in mid-January allowed astronomers to focus their measurements and make more precise calculations of the asteroid’s orbit. Combined with data from other observatories around the world, the researchers were able to improve their understanding of the orbital dynamics, reducing the chance of a collision to almost 0.001%. Olivier Heinau, a senior astronomer at ESO, compared the process to a flashlight beam – initially, the asteroid’s orbit looks like a wide, spreading beam with a lot of uncertainty, but as observations continue and data accumulate, the beam narrows and the lines become clearer.
“Following the new information, we recognize that the beam is no longer directed towards Earth,” he noted. The technical significance of this data is crucial – instead of a 3% chance of collision, measurements now indicate a very minimal risk, which provides significant peace of mind for space researchers and international astronomy authorities.
The asteroid begins to move away from Earth.
As 2024 YR4 moves away from Earth, the asteroid is becoming fainter and is only expected to be detected with the help of large and extremely sensitive telescopes, with the VLT at Paranal in Chile continuing to be the key tool in tracking these faint objects. The updated data now makes it possible to ensure that the asteroid does not pose a real threat, which highlights the importance of continuing to monitor and accurately measure hazardous objects in the solar system. Furthermore, the findings provide further insights into the structure and dynamics of asteroid orbits, and sharpen the scientific community's ability to assess the risks associated with these objects.
This process demonstrates how the combination of advanced technology, international collaboration and the use of innovative measurement tools allows us to make informed decisions and take preventive action when necessary. At the same time, these achievements highlight the advantages of ESO’s observing system and the importance of maintaining optimal observing conditions – as even small disturbances can affect the ability to track faint objects and ensure accurate measurements.
Now the chances are almost zero.
The scientific and technological conclusion is clear: the VLT observations combined with data from other collectors have almost eliminated the risk of a collision with Earth by asteroid 2024 YR4, marking the end of a period of uncertainty and calculated tension. This opens a new way to increase confidence in planetary surveillance and warning systems, and the new studies are an excellent example of our ability to deal with cosmic threats through advanced technology and international cooperation.
The scientific community continues to closely monitor the asteroid, but now with a clearer view, so that it can plan ahead and take the necessary steps if an emergency ever arises. These studies and measurements are not only a technological achievement, but also a testament to the quality of astronomical research and the global commitment to keeping the Earth safe, while understanding the dynamic processes that occur in the vast and complex universe in which we live.
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There is no clash between stars, but there is a clash between human ideas.
The story of the lazy mathematicians, who deal with numbers.
Draw them two circles of different sizes and ask.
What is the ratio of the lengths of the straight lines to the diameters of the circles?
The lazy mathematicians only talk and do nothing, and they refused to take a ruler and measure the length of the straight lines of the diameters of the circles,
Among these was a strange mathematician who also loved to do, and he took a ruler and measured the lengths of the straight lines of the diameters of the circles.
The measurement results were 3 cm and 5 cm, and from these results he obtained the inaccurate ratio number 1.6666.
And the lazy mathematicians who refused to measure still don't know how
Obtain the said ratio number.
They also don't know how to obtain the ratio between the lengths of the circular lines of the two circles, whose straight line lengths are 3 cm and 5 cm.
And since lazy mathematicians only talk and don't measure, they determined that the ratio of the circumferences of two circles of different sizes, , is exactly equal to the ratio of the straight lengths of their diameters.
This fixation lasted for thousands of years, until a very strange mathematician appeared.
Who also really liked to measure.
This mathematician built himself a measuring device (called a circumference) that he clearly determined.
The ratio of the lengths of straight lines of the diameters of circles of different sizes,
Slightly larger than the ratio of the length of the circular lines of these circles.
The result of a tiny inequality in measurement – must be accepted as correct.
From this result arises the idea of a variable pi.
A result of equality in measurement is never accepted.
Mathematicians simply determined, for convenience's sake, that the ratio of the straight lengths of the diameters of circles is exactly equal to the ratio of the lengths of the circular lines of the circumferences of circles, and hence the erroneous idea of a constant pi arose.
A. Asbar